Insider Predicts Jazz Win Total Post Lauri Markkanen Extension

Does the Utah Jazz pull the plug from day one this season?

Nov 17, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (23) and head coach Will Hardy speak while the Phoenix Suns shoot free throws in the fourth quarter at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

The Utah Jazz answered many questions about the future with the Lauri Markkanen extension. Now that we have a clearer picture of the opening-night roster, it's a good time to project how many wins the Jazz could get this upcoming season.

FanDuel currently has Utah's over/under number set at 29.5 games. That number won't be enough to reach the postseason and will most likely not result in securing a top-5 pick. In the 2023-24 season, a 29-win season would have netted the eighth-best lottery odds in the draft. Considering the projected talent in the 2025 draft class, Utah doesn't want to be in that position.

So, did the oddsmakers get it right now that they know Markkanen is guaranteed to be in a Jazz uniform for the entire season? The subject came up when Jazz beat writer Tony Jones of The Athletic joined The Drive with Spence Checketts on ESPN 700.

"I think 28 games sounds right, and I think we’re going to give or take a game or two. I think that probably sounds about where they should be at this point. I think if you’re the Jazz, you have to make it  so if you’re winning this season, you’re not winning because of the remaining vets that on the roster, and I’m not talking Lauri Markkanen here." - Tony Jones

It's @TJonesOnTheNBA on Jazz offseason, Markkanen extension, tip-off expectations + more https://t.co/M6mhM57ldN

— ESPN 700 | 92.1 (@ESPN700) August 7, 2024

Winning close to 30 games this season isn't what Jazz fans want to hear. This would be another year without a post-season appearance and a first-round pick that would likely be late in the lottery. However, Utah is in a challenging position with a top-25 player on the roster and a team of enough experienced veterans who can make a difference.

The Jazz could take the approach they did after the trade deadline last season. Utah's brain trust pivoted from trying to win games to focusing on player development. Even with Markkanen on the court, the Jazz lost games at an alarming clip. Utah won only three times in the last 15 games in which Markkanen suited up.

If the Jazz embraces a tank job from day one, it must be at the veterans' expense. Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, and Collin Sexton would need to concede playing time to the youth movement. This hasn't happened in the past and has cost Utah draft positioning. The highest pick Utah has received since the rebuild was the No. 9 pick in 2023, which was used to select Taylor Hendricks.

Collins and Clarkson don't appear to be part of Utah's future. There were rumors that Utah was looking to trade the pair this summer, but both players still have two years on contracts that aren't considered team-friendly. If Utah's going to move either player this season, then they may need to take a negative asset back.

It's also still unknown where Sexton fits going forward. Here's another player with two years on his contract. Sexton put up fringe All-Star stats last season, and his next contract isn't going to be cheap. Trading Sexton before the season would go a long way in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, but replacing his production wouldn't be easy. Sexton took a big step in development last season and is one of the more efficient guards in the league.

I believe the Jazz can have their cake and eat it, too. Pairing Markkanen with a top-five pick is plausible, but Utah needs to get creative with its rotations from day one to make it happen. After two years of falling short in that department, we'll see if Utah changes its approach as it enters year three of its rebuild.

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