Implications of Jazz Moving Up in the Pre-Lottery Standings

The Utah Jazz's tank has paid off with improved lottery positioning. But what are the implications?

Jan 12, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge looks on before the game between / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

The Brooklyn Nets have won five of their last seven games, and, by doing so, have relinquished the No. 8 spot in the pre-lottery order to the Utah Jazz. Brooklyn sits at 31-47, which is two games up on the Jazz in the win column.

With the Jazz not playing the majority of their veterans and the rookies understandably struggling to impact winning, it seems all but impossible to win two more games this year. Additionally, Brooklyn owes its first-round pick to Houston this year, so it has no incentive to lose games like so many other teams are doing at the bottom of the standings.

Let’s take a look at the significance of this development for the Jazz. 

More Lottery Balls

The most valuable difference between sitting at No. 8 versus No. 9 comes on May 12 when Mark Tatum announces what the results from the Draft Lottery are. If the Jazz do finish with the eighth-worst record, they will have a 26.2% chance of jumping up into the top 4 of the draft order — a notable 6% boost compared to finishing ninth.

The most likely outcome is that the Jazz stay at No. 8 (34.5%) or No. 9 (32.1%). Utah would have a 6% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick and a similar 6.7% chance of sliding to No. 10. 

Safety Net

Notice how I didn’t list the possibility of sliding out of the top 10? This is a huge benefit for Utah's current situation.

As has been widely scrutinized, the Jazz keep their draft pick this year if they finish between picks 1-10. 11-30 would go to the Oklahoma City Thunder. While there’s less than a 0.5% chance that the Jazz could still slide far enough on lottery night to convey their pick, we can comfortably operate under the assumption that they’ll be able to keep the pick. 

Jockeying for Position

While I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the level of prospects who will be available between picks 8 & 9 (if the order holds firm), it’s still beneficial to have more control. Just a year ago, the Jazz tipped their hand of wanting to draft Bilal Coulibaly out of France but missed out on him by one pick.

The Indiana Pacers, who sat at 7, knew that there were teams interested in Coulibaly and eventually extracted future second-round draft capital from the Washington Wizards in the swap. The Pacers were able to get their target, Jarace Walker, and added assets by sliding back just one pick. 

The Takeaway

While they once again waited until February to ultimately decide their season's fate, the Jazz have aggressively moved up the draft standings, this time with the goal of retaining their draft pick this year.

What the Jazz do with that pick, and where it ultimately lands in the draft order, is to be determined, but, we can at least recognize they picked a direction post-trade deadline and have executed their plan. Hopefully, the Jazz can make hay in the draft and their plan proves worthwhile.

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