Jazz Tank Update: Lottery Odds Hinge on One Key Player

What will the Utah Jazz do?

Feb 6, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; From left to right, Utah Jazz general manager Justin Zanik, CEO Danny Ainge, owner Ryan Smith and head coach Will Hardy sit court side before the game between the Utah Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The Utah Jazz are gunning for a top-five pick for the first time since starting their rebuild. The competition is stiff, considering what’s at stake. The 2025 draft class is loaded with talent, with some potential face of the franchise talent at the top of the draft. 

So, where do the oddsmakers see the Jazz landing when it’s all said and done? According to ESPN BET, the Jazz are projected to be tied with the New Orleans Pelicans with second-best lottery odds. The popular online bookies have Utah’s over/under win total set at 21.5. The Washington Wizards are predicted to have the best lottery odds. 

This would be good news for Utah. Getting slotted at the two slot would give the Jazz a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 pick, and the worst they could do is the No. 6 pick. The No. 3 spot also gives you a 14 % at the No. 1 pick, with the No. 7 pick being the worst-case scenario.

However, if this all comes to fruition, the Jazz needs to make some changes sooner rather than later. If the season were to end today, the Jazz would be in the fourth spot behind the Pelicans, Wizards, and Toronto Raptors. 

Utah has enough veteran talent to make it challenging to keep losing games at their current rate. What’s saving them regarding the tank is the lack of depth across the board. Utah has a roster of five players in their sophomore or rookie seasons.

The player to keep an eye on moving forward is Collin Sexton. Trading the third-year Jazzman will add losses to the bottom line, but he’s also a player the Jazz may want to keep for the future. Sexton is only 25 years old, and his prime years will be at a time when tanking seasons should be a thing of the past. 

Trading a player just to increase your lottery odds doesn’t make much sense from this point of view. There are too many uncontrollable variables to give up a talent like Sexton. That said, if Utah gets a reasonable offer, it should consider it. 

Sexton has a fair contract and is under club control through the 2025-26 season. The demand for his services will be high for franchises contending for a title this year. There's already been a handful of teams that are rumored to be interested.

As the February 6 trade deadline draws nearer, expect the bottom dwellers to kick it up a notch regarding a tank. Along with Sexton, Jordan Clarkson and John Collins could be on the move. 

Also, Drew Eubanks, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Patty Mills are on expiring contracts. Although this trio doesn’t make a significant impact on the court, their contracts may be needed to facilitate a trade. 

It's almost certain there will be a roster reshuffle, but Sexton holds the keys to a successful tank. Replacing Sexton's minutes with Cody Williams would do the trick. There are a lot of moving parts, and Jazz fans can expect Utah to be tied to multiple rumors prior to the deadline. 

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