Oddsmakers Issue Major Change on Jazz Season Prediction

The oddsmakers have change their outlook on the Utah Jazz.

Oct 10, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy reacts during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

There has been little to get excited on the Utah Jazz front this season, and the oddsmakers have taken note. Utah’s projected win total to begin the 2023-24 campaign was 29.5, and after a 1-6 start, that number has plummeted to 22.5, per BetMGM Sportsbook.

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The bookies may have underestimated Jazz CEO Danny Ainge’s desire to take the foot off the gas this season. Also, Utah has learned from its mistakes of getting off to hot starts in the past two seasons.

Last year, the Jazz flirted with a chance to play in the play-in tournament thanks to a 21-21 start to the season. In 2022-23, the Jazz shot out to a 12-6 start to the year before a late-season collapse.

This season does feel different. Utah's decision to start a second-round pick (Kyle Filipowski) over veteran John Collins when Lauri Markkanen went down with an injury hinted that the Jazz were following through on a promise to focus on the youth movement. So, the next question is, what would a 22-win season mean for Utah’s lottery odds?

A 22-win season during last year's campaign would have put Utah in a tie for the fifth-best lottery odds. In the 2022-23 season, 22 wins would have put Utah in a three-way tie for the second-best odds. Also, the San Antonio Spurs won the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes with 22 wins in 2023.

The oddsmakers have a bleak outlook concerning the Jazz, but it's not the worst. MGM.BET is projecting the Brooklyn Nets to win one less game than Utah, while the Portland Trail Blazers are predicted to win 22, too. 

If the Oddsmakers nailed it, based on last year's standings, Utah would have a 14% chance of being the No. 1 pick and a guarantee of being in the top seven. The worst record in the league doesn't change the odds of landing at No. 1, but it does guarantee a top-five pick.

The 2025 draft class is projected to be a talented bunch, led by the University of Duke’s Cooper Flagg. After Flagg, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper out of Rutgers are two names to watch. It’s a crucial year regarding the rebuild, and we can expect the Jazz to keep losing games consistently. 

We can also anticipate the Jazz to lose games at a higher clip after the trade deadline when there’s the possibility of Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton suiting up in a different uniform. It’s a step backward regarding the standings, but it’s the only path to relevance for a small market franchise that struggles to lure difference-makers in free agency. At the end of the day, will it be worth it? Stay tuned.

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