Kings Mailbag: Keegan Murray's Year 3 Expectations

The Sacramento Kings forward should take another leap heading into his third season.

Apr 16, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray (13) shoots the ball against the Golden State Warriors in the first quarter during a play-in game of the 2024 NBA playoffs at the Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the first edition of the Sacramento Kings mailbag with Will Z, where I attempt to find stats and information to answer questions submitted by fans from X (formerly Twitter), Threads, and Instagram.

Today’s question comes from TJ on X:

Comparing Keegan's stats from year 1 to year 2, do you see a specific area where he could make a jump offensively next season?

— TJ (@iowakingsfan_TJ) August 2, 2024

Keegan Murray came out of the gate strong in his rookie season, breaking the record for most made threes in a season by a rookie with 206 total. Coming into last season he was the talk of the town and the main hope for internal improvement while the Kings kept their roster relatively the same.

While Keegan improved, it wasn’t in the way that many thought he would on the offensive end. What stood out from his second season was him becoming a defensive stopper, and the numbers back it up.

Credit: Will Zimmerle /

His 2023-24 defensive stats alone are decent, but the full picture is more telling. Comparing them to the 2022-23 season and adding the context of him taking the lead defensive assignment most nights shows impressive improvement.

Keegan increased his deflections, steals, and blocks. His defended FG% difference (difference between the normal percentage of a shooter on shots throughout the season and the percentage on shots when the defensive player or team is guarding the shooter) dropped. And the Kings went from being a much better defensive team without Keegan to about the same with him on and off the court.

Wing defenders are a premium in today’s NBA. Keegan becoming a defensive force was on full display last season, and I expect him to get even better on that side of the ball as he continues his career.

The other improvement that stands out in his numbers is his ability to score in a variety of ways. Looking at his shooting splits by area inside the arc, not only did the number of attempts go up, but his efficiency in all three spots skyrocketed.

Keegan Murray is special. pic.twitter.com/sCcPnk3tnc

— Skyler (KFR) (@SacFilmRoom) July 24, 2024

After TAKING a total of 45 mid-range attempts in his rookie year, he MADE a total of 54 last season. With DeMar DeRozan joining the team, we should see Keegan’s ability to hit the mid-range jumper improve just by being around the six-time All-Star in practice and throughout the season.

Keegan maintaining this increased effectiveness scoring inside the arc will be key to his continued development. Even if his attempts go down with DeRozan joining the team, the percentages staying the same or improving will be crucial.

The only numbers that negatively stand out were Keegan’s three-point numbers. He dropped from 41.1 percent his first season to 35.8 percent last season.

That gets us back to the original question. Where can Keegan take a jump offensively next season? If he can maintain his efficiency inside the arc, and get back to the 39-41 percent range from beyond the arc, we could be in for an offensive boom from the third-year wing.

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