Inside The Kings

Projecting the Final NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament

The NBA Western Conference playoff race is heating up as the regular season winds down.

Justin Kovacs

Oct 24, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) talks with Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk (0) during the fourth quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
Oct 24, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) talks with Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk (0) during the fourth quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
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One night after an incredible, and surprising, victory over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, the Sacramento Kings dropped a game at home to the Chicago Bulls. Even if a split of those two games was the expectation going in, the Kings roster, coaching staff, front office, and fans can’t feel satisfied with how the team managed a split of those two games.

Fortunately (and simultaneously, unfortunately) for the Kings, their spot in the No.9 vs No.10 Play-In game in the Western Conference playoffs feels all but guaranteed at this point in the season. The sixth spot currently occupied by the Golden State Warriors is effectively out of reach, with the Warriors leading the Kings by 5.5 games with 13 to play. 

Much the same can be said for the No.7 vs No.8 Play-In game, as both spots appear to be beyond Sacramento’s grasp. The Los Angeles Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves are each 4 games up on the Kings and playing very good basketball at the moment. The Clippers are 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Timberwolves have an 8-2 record in their previous 10 games.

For the Kings, making up ground on either team down the stretch became a lot more difficult with the loss to the Bulls. Given Sacramento’s difficult remaining schedule (ranked fifth-toughest in the NBA), Chicago was a team they needed to beat in order to maintain hope of moving up in the standings. For many, the game was as much of a “must-win” as can be imagined for a team in the Kings’ position.

NBA Western Conference remaining SOS ranking
NBA Western Conference remaining SOS ranking / Tankathon

Coming up in the next four days are tilts against the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, and NBA-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. The Kings then close out their seven-game homestand against the Portland Trail Blazers on March 27. A split of those four games is entirely possible but will require Sacramento to play significantly better basketball than they did against the Bulls.

If the Kings can manage a 6-7 record in their final 13 games, they will finish 41-41 for the season. That record will likely be good enough to hang on to the No. 9 spot in the West and secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament, barring a late-season rally by either the Dallas Mavericks or Phoenix Suns.

Dallas has fallen out of the No. 10 spot, and with a projected record of 2-10 the rest of the way they would finish 35-47 for the season. The Mavericks are a team ravaged by injury and have only won 2 games in the last month, so a push to get back into the Play-In race would be, frankly, shocking.

The Suns have moved into the final Play-In spot in the West, and seem likely to stay there. Despite having the most difficult remaining schedule in the NBA, Phoenix doesn’t really need to do much to stay where they are now. Even a 5-7 record in their last 12 games would give them a 38-44 record, and it’s hard to imagine any of the teams below them in the standings approaching 38 wins.

It feels increasingly likely that the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns will actually play each other twice more this season: once in the regular season finale on April 13th, and once more in the Play-In Tournament a couple of days later. In the second meeting, the season will be on the line and the loser will shift focus to their draft prep and free agency strategy. 

If this is the scenario the Kings face next month, they will need a much better performance than they gave on March 14 against the Suns if they intend to play any more basketball this season. 

Projected Final Standings 

7. Minnesota Timberwolves, 47-35

8. Los Angeles Clippers, 47-35

9. Sacramento Kings, 41-41

10. Phoenix Suns, 38-44

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Justin Kovac
JUSTIN KOVACS

Justin Kovacs covers the NBA and Sacramento Kings for Sacramento Kings On SI.

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