Sacramento Kings vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Swing Stat of the Game

The Sacramento Kings host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday.

Oct 24, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) claps his hands during the fourth quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Before each Sacramento Kings game, I try to find a stat that will dictate the game's outcome. Theoretically, if the Kings win the swing stat, they win the game. If they lose the stat, they lose the game. Make sense? Let’s get into it.

The Kings return home to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday at 7:00 PM PT.

Current Swing Stat Projection Record: 4-4

Kings vs. Timberwolves Swing Stat: Points Off Turnovers

Season averages

• Kings: 19.6 (4th)
• Timberwolves: 16.9 (21st)

The Kings get their first action in the NBA Cup tonight while the Timberwolves sit at 0-1 in their cup games so far.

Minnesota beat Sacramento 117-115 on Kings’ opening night with big games from Julius Randle and Anthony Edwards. In that game, they took 50 three-point attempts as a team.

The Timberwolves are going to get their looks up from beyond the arc. They average 40.9 attempts from deep per game, the sixth most in the league. Edwards alone takes 11.4 per game, which is second most in the association.

#'Z for Nerdz - Kings vs. Timberwolves

1. T-Wolves W/L splits for their points & offense
2. Win the TO battle.
3. MIN is going to get up a ton of threes and limit opponent 3's
4. Just like TOs, win the Pts Off TO battle. Big advantage going into the game for Kings. pic.twitter.com/H7VZhUejEy

— Will Z. Stats (@will_zimmerle) November 15, 2024

That makes the swing stat for tonight imperative for the Kings to win. With the Kings attempting 33.6 threes per game, they will likely be outscored from beyond the arc tonight, and that’s ok. 

Minnesota turns the ball over 16.8 times per game, fifth most, and allows 21 points off of those turnovers, third most. On the flipside, the Kings score 19.6 points off turnovers per contest, the fourth most in the league.

The Kings have to find ways to narrow the gap in three-point scoring, and getting in the passing lanes and getting handsy against a team that is loose with the ball is the perfect way to do so. Not only will it limit Minnesota’s looks, but the more easy looks the Kings can generate against the ninth-ranked defense in the league, the better.

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