Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns Swing Stat of the Game

The Sacramento Kings host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night.

Nov 8, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Domantas Sabonis (11) during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Clippers at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Before each Sacramento Kings game, I try to find a stat that will dictate the game's outcome. Theoretically, if the Kings win the swing stat, they win the game. If they lose the stat, they lose the game. Make sense? Let’s get into it.

The Kings return home to take on the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday at 7:00 PM PT.

Kings vs. Suns Swing Stat: Rebounds

Season averages

• Kings: 43.1 (16th)
• Suns: 44.3 (12th)

The Kings and Suns are two eerily similar teams. They are tied for the 12th-best net rating in the league at +2.4, both are above average on offense and defense, and both take a ton of shots in the mid-range.

#'Z for Nerdz - Kings vs. Suns

1. These teams are eerily similar
2. Kings W/L Reb splits are telling
3. Kings Assists remain low
4. Suns are going to get their 3's up, even w/o Durant
5. Kings 3P% splits. Corner = Good, ATB = Bad

How y'all feeling for tonight? pic.twitter.com/fgX4alVbUd

— Will Z. Stats (@will_zimmerle) November 13, 2024

The biggest difference is that the Suns are hitting their threes, while the Kings, as is well documented and discussed, are not.

That means that for tonight's swing stat, the Kings will have to control the possession battle and get on the boards to make up for the potential three-point differential.

Rebounds are becoming a telling stat for Sacramento. In their wins, they are grabbing 47.2 rebounds per game, which would tie the Chicago Bulls for fourth most in the league. In their losses, they plummet to 38.2, fewer than the league-worst Philadelphia 76ers 39.5 per contest.

In the first matchup with the Suns where the Kings escaped with an overtime win, they won the rebounding battle 57-48. 

It’s possible that the Kings break out of their three-point shooting slump and hit 20 threes, but if not, they’ll need to control the boards, hit their twos, and hope the Suns don’t light it up from beyond the arc.

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