Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs Swing Stat of the Game

The Sacramento Kings travel to face the San Antonio Spurs on Monday.

Nov 4, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Chris Paul (3) during the first half at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Before each Sacramento Kings game, I try to find a stat that will dictate the game's outcome. Theoretically, if the Kings win the swing stat, they win the game. If they lose the stat, they lose the game. Make sense? Let’s get into it.

The Kings travel to take on the San Antonio Spurs on Monday at 5:00 PM PT.

Kings vs. Spurs Swing Stat: Points Off Turnovers

Season averages

• Kings: 19.7 (4th)
• Spurs: 16.7 (20th)

Unlike most swing stats throughout the season, the key stat for tonight isn’t necessarily close coming into the game. The Kings are top four in points off turnovers while the Spurs are 20th, but looking at it a little closer tells more of the story.

In their wins, the Spurs are averaging 21 points off turnovers. In losses that drops to 13.8. Early on in the season, it is a great indicator of San Antonio’s wins and losses.

The Spurs come into the game with the 26th-ranked offense in the league and appear to have success when they get early and easy offense on fastbreak opportunities. 

Sacramento gives up 18.6 points off turnovers, tenth most in the association, but only turns it over 22 times per contest, eighth fewest in the league for an odd combination of stats.

Time will tell if that’s an unlucky split or a season-long trend, but for Monday night, it could tell the outcome of the game.

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