Imagining A Different Path Forward For Knicks' Fourth Quarters

How The Knicks Lose Their Gains In The Final Period

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There were plenty of reasons for optimism out of Wednesday  night's game, a 109-104 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Playing a team with designs on the NBA title close, especially on the road, represents progress. As a reminder, the idea that this season can or should be measured in wins and losses is a silly one, given how much the Knicks need to determine this season based on the growth and ceiling of RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina and Mitchell Robinson (with Dennis Smith Jr. potentially playing himself into that mix).

By that measure, the returns were mixed. Ntilikina excelled in some ways, scoring 17 on eight shots and defending at an elite level, but 33 minutes without an assist is no stat any point guard should post. Smith Jr. was better on that score, with a pair of assists, along with 13 points on nine shots, in 15 minutes off the bench. Robinson did not miss from the field, and blocked three shots — alas, foul trouble limited him to 13 minutes. Barrett labored for his right points on 12 shots, but grabbed seven rebounds and continued to produce in various ways, reflecting his broad-based talent. And Knox made his lone three-point attempt — he's right at 40% for the season from deep, which is where he needs to be, given his limitations for now finishing around the rim.

The concern last night had less to do with the loss, and more about a fourth quarter that reflected the team's season-long inability to finish games strong. A 35-25 Sixers advantage, out of a net rating of -38.5 for the Knicks last night, proved to be the difference, and this is nothing new: the Knicks have the worst fourth quarter net rating in the league so far this year, and by a wide margin.

Let's unpack that a bit, though, because, as we see up top, it doesn't actually matter whether the Knicks win or lose these games, and that's the case in the fourth quarter as much as it is the entire game itself.

It does, however, matter whether the players mentioned up top figure out how to close strong.

Last night, the shot distribution looked like this: Marcus Morris Sr. took nine of them. No one else took more than three.

This dovetails with both some of the most important shots all season — Morris in the final minute of the loss to Brooklyn and the win over Dallas — and the sum total, with Morris at 60 fourth quarter shots, no other Knick above 38 (Julius Randle) and the most efficient Knick offensively, Robinson, with just 16.

And no, in case you were wondering, this doesn't dovetail at all with the team's overall shot distribution, with Morris, Randle and Barrett all at rough parity.

In David Fizdale's defense, he hasn't said anything like "Marcus Morris is the go-to guy, now and forever". In fact, he's previously indicated just the opposite — that searching for a fourth-quarter top option is to be a season-long quest.

Even if the Knicks finish 30th in the league in fourth-quarter net rating, making Barrett, or Ntilikina, or Knox, or a combination of Smith Jr. to Robinson that go-to offensive connection down the stretch would at least give the team a look at what could be.

This? Well, the fourth-quarter difference has cost New York four losses already. Imagine the feelings around this team at 8-7 instead of 4-11. Fair to say we'd have at least one less news conference in the memory bank.

And it isn't helping solve the future Knicks questions, either. The results may not change in the fourth quarter. The process? It must.