Knicks Mock Draft: Knicks Move Up in Alex Wolfe's Simulation

What a lucky simulation

When tasked with writing this mock draft about the Knicks, I was instructed to run just one sim on Tankathon.com to determine the Knicks' draft position. As tempting as it is to hit that button hundreds of times, I held myself back and just clicked once, reaching this result for the lottery:

(Per-36 stats shown) / Tankathon.com

How lucky! The Knicks haven't moved up in a draft lottery since the pick that netted them Patrick Ewing. They only had a 9.4% chance of moving into the third pick. Two straight top-3 picks? I'll take it. (Can we also talk about the Pelicans moving up to No. 1 overall for TWO straight years? Who are they, the Cavs?) So that gives the Knicks the Nos. 3, 27 (via Clippers) and 38 (via Hornets) picks in this draft.

Third pick

Due to who else jumped into the top three, the Knicks also get a roster-fit dream scenario where neither of the top two teams would be particularly interested in a point guard. The Pelicans still have Lonzo Ball on his rookie contract, and therefore don't have much of a need for his brother LaMelo. They pick Anthony Edwards, which would give them a tidy young core of Ball, Edwards, Brandon Ingram (if re-signed), Zion Williamson and Jaxson Hayes. Cleveland has spent its last two first-round picks on point guards, and smartly opt for center James Wiseman (though I could see them just as easily going for Deni Avdija in this spot).

That leaves the Knicks at the third spot, and LaMelo Ball ripe for the picking. Ball is considered by many to be the top prospect in this class, and his elite-looking averages of 17 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists for the Illawarra Hawks of Australia's NBL are great on the surface, even comparing quite favorably to his brother Lonzo's 14.6 point-, 7.6 assist- and six rebound-per-game averages at UCLA in 2017.

The big difference between the two, though? Efficiency. Lonzo shot a slash line of 55.1% overall, 41.2% from three and 67.3% from the line in college. LaMelo shot a putrid 37.5/25/72.3 with Illawarra. Not exactly an elite floor-spacer for a Knicks team that already has a dearth of good shooting. His passing will be an elite NBA skill from day one, however, and with good NBA coaching, he should be able to work through whatever work ethic and shooting form consistency issues he has. The highlights on this video by ESPN's Mike Schmitz are way more eye-popping than the deficiencies, by a long shot:

The Stepien's Spencer Pearlman also noted in his scouting report of Ball that he was the only player on the Illawarra team to post a positive net rating (+2.5) when former NBA guard Aaron Brooks was out with injury. That suggests that Ball does best when he can be the true lead ball-handler on a team, and Pearlman and Schmitz both noted that Ball is most effective when he's active in the offense, and only tends to get lost when he's not actively involved. His handle is also elite, and as his body grows and he becomes less afraid of contact, his 6-foot-7 frame will be more than enough to absorb contact and hopefully pull off some fantastic finishes in the paint.

With Frank Ntilikina sort of blossoming to end the season, adding another point guard to the mix seems maybe like less of a sure thing than before. Avdija is certainly an interesting player to look at in this spot with his unique blend of size and playmaking at the wing spot. But a Ball/Ntilikina/RJ Barrett backcourt definitely seems like it could work together, especially considering Ntilikina and Barrett shot 33.7% and 33.8%, respectively, on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers this season, per NBA Stats. Both of those numbers figure to improve, particularly if Ball is setting the table. If Ball also embraces his defensive potential with his size, the Knicks would have three switchable defenders in the 1-3 spots and Mitchell Robinson patrolling the middle — definitely an enticing prospect. Oh, and have I mentioned the potential of LaMelo-to-Mitch alley-oops yet?

27th pick

With the No. 27 pick, the Knicks will have a lot of intriguing options, both young and old. However, there are rumors that the NCAA may extend the same courtesy to senior winter athletes that they currently are to senior spring athletes due to the COVID-19 crisis, allowing them to come back for a fifth year of eligibility. If that happens, the pool of seniors to look at with later picks could thin.

With that said, I think it would be good for the Knicks to take a hard look at Cassius Stanley out of Duke at the 27 spot. Take a look at some of Stanley's explosive highlights at Duke:

An elite dunker and athlete, Stanley also shot 36% from deep his freshman year on his way to averages of 12.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and one assist per game. He has prototypical shooting guard size at 6-foot-6 as well, and is exactly the type of "ball of clay"-type player the Knicks should be looking for as they continue their rebuild.

Tankathon (and many mock drafts) actually have Stanley available to the Knicks with their second-round pick, but I'd take the reach and grab him in the late first round. That ensures that you can sign him to a cheap four-year rookie deal at the lower end of the rookie scale (likely just over a million dollars starting salary) without the potential snafus of signing a second-round pick, where younger, high-potential players like Stanley can sometimes secure even more money than a late first rounder with the open salary structure that comes with the second round.

38th pick

This is where things get tricky, and may depend on what the NCAA rules as far as eligibility for seniors. But, if he's available, the Knicks would be wise to take a look at Killian Tillie of Gonzaga at this spot.

At 6-foot-10 and shooting 44.4% from deep over the course of his four-year college career — including 40% on 3.8 attempts per game this season, proving he can do it on volume — Tillie is exactly the sort of stretch big man that could be an ideal pairing next to Mitchell Robinson.

Tillie has also been on the draft radar for a while — two years ago he averaged very similar numbers to this season as a sophomore, which had him creep into the late first round in many mock drafts before he returned to Gonzaga. Ankle surgery forced him to miss much of his junior season, but he rebounded well this year. 

Unfortunately for him, being two years older and posting basically the same stats as his sophomore year pushes him into the second round. Fortunately for the Knicks, with Robinson manning the middle, they basically just need him to be a floor spacer and play passable defense, which he does. This pick also would mean the Knicks address point guard, wing, and stretch big needs all in one draft, hopefully solidifying their young core as a more complete unit going forward.