New York Knicks: Every In-Season Tournament Clinching Scenario

The New York Knicks have a chance to reach the knockout stage of the NBA In-Season Tournament after a Friday night victory over the Miami Heat.

It'll take some math for the New York Knicks to make history.

The Knicks have quietly built a championship case for the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament: after falling in their group play opener to the Milwaukee Bucks on Nov. 3, New York has picked up wins against Washington and Miami in blowout and comeback fashions respectively. 

Knicks Comeback vs. Heat Keeps In-Season Tournament Championship Dream Alive

Those wins and an accompanying plus-18 point differential (the primary tiebreaker after head-to-head in group games) in the first trio have put the Knicks in the wild card slot afforded to the top runner-up among the three Eastern Conference groups. The group winners and the wildcard will be invited to an eight-team knockout tournament that culminates in a Las Vegas-based championship on Dec. 9. Only two teams (Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers) are locked onto the bracket so far. 

One more group game lingers on the Knicks' group schedule in the form of Tuesday's visit from the Charlotte Hornets (7:30 p.m. ET, MSG). Tuesday will mark the final night of group play for many sides: elsewhere in the Knicks' group (East Group B), the Bucks will square off against the Miami Heat (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT) while the winless Washington Wizards are already eliminated.

How do the Knicks make the fateful eight?

Jalen Brunson (11) and the Knicks scored two victories over Brandon Miller and the Hornets last week / USA TODAY SPORTS

Swat the Hornets

Any hope the Knicks have (beyond, of course, a convoluted sum of situations that require a lot of things to go right) will require a win over the Hornets on Tuesday night. On paper, that shouldn't be too hard, even with the In-Season Tournament caveats added.

Charlotte (5-9, 1-2) is still mathematically alive for the wild card (having already dropped group games to Miami and Milwaukee) but will probably need to crush the Knicks in Manhattan to have even the faintest hope thanks to a point differential of minus-30. In addition to getting on the right side of the numbers, Charlotte needs to leapfrog six other teams just to get behind the Knicks. 

New York bookended last week with a pair of convincing wins over the Hornets: they crushed Charlotte 129-107 at Madison Square Garden before taking a 122-108 decision at Spectrum Center six days later. Since then, the Hornets have won each of their last two games including a 121-118 overtime upset over Boston on Monday. 

The Knicks' Friday victory over Miami set up potential chaos in Group B / USA TODAY SPORTS

How to Clinch Group B

To win Group B, the Knicks will need to get by with a little help from their South Floridian friends: as group play reaches its final stages, the Knicks' opening leg loss to Milwaukee looms large and they now need Miami to buck the Bucks if they have any shot of group play glory. 

Miami and Milwaukee previously faced off in a non-tournament game on Oct. 30. The latter earned a 122-114 victory albeit with Miami starting center Bam Adebayo out due to a hip injury. It was the first showdown between the Bucks and Heat since last year's postseason, which saw eighth-seeded South Beach eliminate top-ranked Milwaukee in a five-game upset. 

Tuesday wins for the Heat and Knicks would create a three-way, three-win tie at the top of the group, which would be broken through point differential. While the Knicks' is enough to lead the runner-ups, it's hardly enough to challenge Milwaukee's: the Bucks have built a plus-39 advantage thanks primarily to a 31-point win over the Hornets on Nov. 20. Thus, New York would have to beat Charlotte by at least 22 while Milwaukee would have to lose to the Heat by, again, a least 22. 

A blowout win over the Hornets is also necessary thanks to the meager wiggle room between the Knicks and Heat: as exhilarating as Friday's comeback from a 21-point deficit was, the Knicks failed to noticeably expand their point differential on Miami (plus-11), making a potential blowout over the Bucks a double-edged sword. 

Boston and Brooklyn stand to potentially gain with a Knicks loss / Wendell Cruz, USA TODAY SPORTS

How to Clinch the Wild Card

The Knicks do control their own destiny in the wild card hunt, where eight different teams (not including active group leaders Milwaukee and Orlando) are still alive for the single spot. Point differential will once again be the deciding factor with head-to-heads mostly cast aside. 

Fortunately for the Knicks and their Eastern brethren, all will be decided on Tuesday, the final day of group action. MSG's out-of-town scoreboard will likely garner extra attention with the following games in mind. 

(Records & point differentials included for active contenders; all tip-offs at 7:30 p.m. ET)

• Atlanta (1-2, -9) @ Cleveland (2-1, +6)
• Chicago @ Boston (2-1, 0)
• Toronto @ Brooklyn (2-1 +8)

With this in mind, the Knicks' de facto magic number is 18, where their own point differential currently stands. 

The Orlando Magic (3-1, +22) has completed its schedule and is the current leader of Group C, chased by Brooklyn and Boston. Of note, the Brooklyn Nets own a tiebreaker over the Magic with a win in group play and would win the group with a win and Boston loss. Orlando has the point differential advantage over the Knicks, but not the opportunity to improve upon it. 

Philadelphia (2-2, +9) is also in the wild card hunt but likewise has no more games left. 

Simply put, the Knicks can be fairly comfortable if they handle business against the Hornets. If there's one thing the Knicks have done consistently well this season, it's handle business in expected victories: over a 9-6 start, New York has posted a 5-0 record against teams with active losing records with an average margin of victory at just over 18 points. That mark improves to 7-0 when a pair of victories over Atlanta (7-7) is included. 

RJ Barrett dunks in a Nov. 12 win over Charlotte / Wendell Cruz, USA TODAY SPORTS

In Case of Emergency

There is one doomsday scenario if the unthinkable ... a Knicks loss to Charlotte ... occurs. 

Fortunately for New York, the schedule is set up in a way where all lingering contenders could lose and the standings remain virtually unchanged. That scenario, which assumes a narrow Knicks defeat (Charlotte's average margin of victory is four points) involves Boston and Brooklyn each falling to their eliminated competition, Atlanta topping Cleveland by no more than 26, and Miami losing to Milwaukee. The Knicks losing by more than nine would also thrust Philadelphia back into the conversation, depending on, of course, the other scores. 

In the end, it's truly all a numbers game when brought to brass tacks. But the Knicks find themselves in a most unusual position: having a grasp of their own destiny, no matter how tenuous. 

Another number ... that of time ... will only tell if they're able to take advantage.