Obi Toppin Trade: Who's to Blame For Knicks' Failure?

With a trade in place to end the New York Knicks' Obi Toppin era, hindsight now reigns around the newly-minted Indiana Pacer.

Hindsight, in this case, is literally 2020.

The New York Knicks are set to officially close the book on the Obi Toppin era, as the eighth overall pick of the 2020 NBA Draft is due to be transferred to the Indiana Pacers in a trade that will become official on Thursday. New York will get back second-round picks, an undeniably paltry return for a prominent lottery choice no matter what he did in Manhattan.

Even though Toppin isn't officially on the Pacers' roster yet, debate has already surfaced around his metropolitan legacy. The plainest look at the stats (7.0 points, 3.0 rebounds) suggests he's one of the most prominent draft busts in recent Knicks memory, especially considering his high-profile selection and those they left on the draft board (Toppin's future teammate Tyrese Haliburton went to Sacramento four picks later). 

In reality, however, the truth is far more complex and requires a deeper look at the past three seasons in New York lore.

The question of "when" used to linger around Toppin, as in wondering when he'd take to Madison Square Garden's hardwood after playing less than 15 minutes a game over three seasons. Now, Knicks fans will debate "who" for years to come, especially if Toppin finally lives up to his lottery pick billing in Indianapolis. 

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Toppin Himself

It's fair to bestow some sort of blame on Toppin himself, even if there's a legitimate argument that he wasn't granted enough of a fair, realistic opportunity. Yes, Toppin often came through when granted starting opportunities, such as a 21.8-point average when he gained entry in the last five games. Most of that tally, however, came when the Knicks had nothing more to play for in the regular season, safely secure in the fifth seed on the Eastern Conference playoff bracket.

In his third season, Toppin endured dips in both traditional and advanced categories, the most alarming being a nearly five-point drop in PER (18.3 to 13.6) and his offensive win shares were cut in half and then some (2.5 to 1.1). Toppin tried to make up for it by establishing an apparently new skill from the outside, sinking 85 three-pointers after getting 78 in his first two seasons combined. Even that didn't fully pan out, as he sank just over 34 percent of his attempts.

It may be hard to admit considering what was sacrificed but it's fair to admit that perhaps Toppin had simply run his course in New York. 

Moving onto Indiana is perhaps the perfect place for Toppin to hone his strengths: the Pacers are trapped in hardwood purgatory, too packed with talent and potential (i.e. Haliburton) to compete for a high lottery pick and too raw or inexperienced (Bennedict Mathurin, eighth overall pick Jarace Walker) to break into the conference's automatic six playoff spots. He can struggle, he can develop in relatively consequence-free settings. In an ironic twist on one of Sinatra's most famous lyrics, if Toppin can't make it in Indianapolis, it'll be hard to make it anywhere else. 

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Julius Randle

Perhaps nothing defines Randle's Knicks career to date better than the fact that his playing beyond expectations leads to a metropolitan shortcoming.

When Toppin arrived, Randle was a placeholder on a rebuilding team at worst, a consolation prize in free agency for missing out on an elite talent at best. During his first year in New York, the shortened 2019-20 campaign, he shot under 28 percent from three-point range and scored less than 20 a game after reaching that landmark in New Orleans the year before. Toppin's drafting instead seemed to hint at Randle keeping the starting five seat warm while the former developed his game.

But Randle not only discovered an All-Star form, he also became the headliner of an unexpected Knicks playoff push. 

Randle returned to All-Star form this season and started each of the first 77 games, eating away at Toppin's meaningful opportunities. An injury perhaps anchored Randle down during the Knicks' latest playoff run and dealing Randle shows that the Knicks are confident about where they stand at the power forward spot, even with a sizeable price tag. His Broadway breakout made Toppin's primetime arrival seem questionable in hindsight.

Leon Rose

Much has been made about Rose's relative inactivity in the new basketball year, a conception he bucked on Saturday by initiating the Toppin trade and inking Donte DiVincenzo to a four-year deal. 

Those complaining about Rose's relative slumber would be well served to remember the last offseason after a Knicks playoff trip.

Running off the high of a fourth-place show in the East during another shortened campaign, Rose and Co. made rash decisions that brought in pricey gambles like Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. The young talents that could've been building blocks (i.e. Toppin, Quentin Grimes, Cam Reddish) were buried as the Knicks tried to take a step forward, but they only sputtered beyond the outskirts of the Play-In Tournament. It led to a relative reset whose button is still pressed. 

Walker is already gone and Fournier's departure seems inevitable. While Grimes usurped Fournier in the Knicks' starting five, Toppin's prescience was more or less redundant, though he fared better than Reddish, who was out of the rotation by Christmas. The confusing mix of win-now/build-for-later was more or less offset by Jalen Brunson fulfilling every expectation of a four-year, $104 million deal, but that wasn't enough to salvage Toppin's New York fate. 

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Tom Thibodeau

Any discussion around Toppin will inevitably involve Thibodeau, perhaps defining Toppins' sense of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Toppin's dwindling minutes (the 14.7 per game are lowest among 2020's top 10 picks) are perhaps the direct result of struggling to impress Thibodeau, who was never known for coddling his younger players.

Standing more as a basketball boss who defines the concept of being "one move away" despite struggling to break through to the NBA Finals, Thibodeau is perhaps the perfect name to lead this confusing, curious, if not potential-packed, period on the Knicks timeline. Thibodeau made that clear in his apparent distrust in Toppin, which reportedly hit a boiling point in the Knicks' penultimate defeat of the 2023 postseason. 

Knicks fans don't want to admit it, but Thibodeau meant more to the franchise than Toppin did at this point in time. His team, armed with what many viewed as a best-case scenario of a Play-In, overachieved and this team was nowhere near "complete" at the start of the year. Opening night, for example, saw Fournier and Reddish playing major minutes. The push for the playoffs was defined by Grimes, Randle, Immanuel Quickley, and Brunson at the height of his powers. Thibodeaeu evolved and earned himself an opportunity with a "fuller" team for the 2023-24 season. In the eyes of Knicks management, Toppin did not. 

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Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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