All Lakers Expert Roundtable Predictions On LA's Play-In Matchup Against Minnesota Timberwolves
Tonight, your Los Angeles Lakers will host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a play-in game for the right to face off against the second seed in the Western Conference, the 51-31 Memphis Grizzlies.
Below, our experts weigh in on the anticipated game outcome, what to watch for, key defensive assignments, and more.
1. First thing's first: will Los Angeles cover its 8.5-point spread?
Alex: Given that the Timberwolves could be missing up to three starters and five rotation players tonight, and LA is expected to be completely healthy, I think this should be a relatively easy game, as far as postseason bouts go. The Lakers down the home stretch of the season have also been much better than their middling 43-39 record on the season makes them look. Los Angeles boasts the third-best record in the entire NBA (18-8) and the sixth-best net rating (+4.8) since the team started incorporating all its new players on February 11th. Take LA to cover.
Noah: I’ve learned my lesson about the Lakers and big point spreads. Do I think the Lakers will win on Tuesday? Absolutely. Do I feel good enough about them covering an 8.5-point spread? Absolutely not. I think the Lakers will be up by double digits at some point throughout the game, but when it’s all said and done, it’s going to be an eight-or-fewer point deficit.
Ricardo: This -8.5 line is a pretty high spread considering it’s a playoff-like game where these teams will give it their all to grab the seventh seed. I’m confident the Lakers will win the game, but I’ll bet that the Timberwolves will cover and keep the game close. The Lakers will let them hang around for most of the game, and the betting man in me tells me that the Wolves will cover.
Noel: I do predict LA will cover their 8.5-point spread quite easily. Considering that all of their guys seem to be healthy and LeBron's coming off a big game against the Jazz, the stage is set for them to continue that momentum in the play-in. Without Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, Minnesota will struggle to keep up with all of the scoring threat the Lakers have down the stretch and I see a double-digit win for LA in the end potentially.
2. How will LA cover All-Star Anthony Edwards, by far Minnesota's biggest threat?
Noah: Two words. Jarred Vanderbilt. Two more words. Vando’s Vault. The only way to slow down Anthony Edwards is to throw Vanderbilt at him for 30-plus minutes. Have Anthony Davis ready to help in the paint, and have Austin Reaves on him when Vanderbilt is resting. Slowing down Edwards is the key to winning this game.
Ricardo: Anthony Edwards is a rising star in this league. He was named to his first All-Star game of his career this season, and many more are on the horizon. Even though Karl-Anthony Towns is more seasoned in the NBA, it’s clear Ant-Man is their best weapon. The Lakers have a couple of options to throw at Ant, but the energizer bunny in Jarred Vanderbilt will be the primary defender on Edwards. Vanderbilt’s job will be to cover the 21-year-old and contain him as much as possible. The Lakers last played the Wolves in late March, and Anthony was held to 11 points on 4-of-16 shooting. It would be nice for the Lakers to have him repeat that performance, but that’s highly unlikely. He will get his points, but they must make him work for it, and Jarred will be responsible for that.
Noel: Anthony Edwards will definitely keep the Lakers' hands full with his athleticism, shooting, and fearless attitude. The paint will be less clogged without Gobert so AD has to be careful when contesting Ant's drive so he doesn't get in foul trouble. The obvious answer here is to trust Jarred Vanderbilt to slow him down.
Alex: Edwards is a special talent, the kind of exciting player with an infinite ceiling that can convince your team president to sacrifice five future draft picks in a trade for a slightly-washed up plodding center whose teammates hate him. But I digress. I assume Darvin Ham will try out a few different looks defensively on Edwards, but I'd expect some combination of Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt and maybe a little Malik Beasley will handle Edwards during his minutes on the floor. Edwards is capable of taking over a game and winning it singlehandedly, so stopping him will be the key to securing what should be an otherwise-easy win.
3. Which non-Hall of Fame Laker will have the biggest night?
Ricardo: I expect LeBron James and Anthony Davis to do their thing in this play-in game and beyond. It starts and ends with the duo; however, the other guys will need to step up, more so today, if they want the seventh seed. I’ll be going with two players to answer this question: Mailk Beasley and Rui Hachimura. Beasley is a streaky shooter, and it looks like he’s hitting his stride heading into the playoffs. In his last three games, Beasley has shot 40 percent going 8-for-20, and I expect him to hit some big threes for the purple and gold. Hachimura has been one of LA’s best players off the bench; he plays solid defense, hits the occasional three, his mid-range is excellent, and more importantly, he’s fantastic alongside Davis and James. LA will need Rui to contribute on both ends; when he has a good game, LA hardly loses.
Noel: Piggybacking off of my last answer, Jarred Vanderbilt’s performance might not look crazy in the stat sheet but his responsibility to shut down Ant will really determine how comfortably the Lakers can get a win here. If he holds him to a low field goal percentage and forces some turnovers, LA is in great shape.
Alex: The easy answer is probably ex-Timberwolf D'Angelo Russell, who should be highly motivated after his team flipped him at the deadline to LA, essentially because Minnesota did not want to pay him in free agency this summer. Averaging 17.4 points on .484/.414/.735 shooting splits with the Lakers, plus 6.1 dimes, Russell is poised to have a big night.
Noah: There are a lot of choices, and the safer ones are for sure Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell. But for the sake of having some fun, I’m going to go with Malik Beasley. He started to get his shot going during the end of the season, and I think he’ll stay hot in the biggest game of the year, knocking down at least five triples, and earning himself extra playing time heading into the first round series against the Grizzlies. But I can't believe none of my counterparts said Reaves! Look for him to have another huge game on both ends of the floor.
4. In what area of the game will LA shine brightest?
Noel: With D-Lo, Austin Reaves, and LeBron all in the lineup, AD is going to be getting some beautiful entry passes to the post. Even if he gets doubled down low, those guys can also hit shots, so it’s really a matter of Minnesota deciding their fate. I think they’ll obviously favor AD’s two-pointers and be ready for a dominant paint-performance from LA.
Alex: I think, thanks to all these huge frontcourt absences, the Lakers will wallop the Timberwolves when it comes to cleaning the glass. Look for Los Angeles to enjoy a handy 10-rebound edge at least.
Noah: I’m going to go with rebounding and points in the paint. Without Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis and co. will have a lot of fun bullying Karl-Anthony Towns down low. I expect the Lakers to be very aggressive on the boards, and let AD go to work in the paint. He’s going to have a big game, and the Lakers are going to have a lot of easy shots via the dunk and layup.
Ricardo: The Lakers will need to shine brightest in these three categories: Free-throw shooting, turnovers, and rebounding. Rebounds win you championships, meaning fewer offensive opportunities for the opponent and more opportunities for the purple and gold. Throw in the T-Wolves not having two of their big men, and the Lakers HAVE TO have a significant advantage on the boards. It’s this simple: When the Lakers don’t turn the ball over they’re tough to beat. LA cannot give Minnesota free opportunities and they create turnovers on the defensive end. TAKE CARE OF THE BALL (I’m looking at you, Dennis). LA has been aggressive all season leading them to a ton of free throws and that must continue. Davis has to be the initiator in that department, and the team will follow. You have to get those free points, and you have to knock them down. Do this, and LA could win comfortably.
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