ESPN's Basketball Power Index Harsh on Magic Ahead of Upcoming NBA Season

ESPN on Wednesday released its Basketball Power Index for the 2024-25 NBA season. The projections aren't kind to the Orlando Magic: fewer wins and a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs.

Orlando Magic center Moritz Wagner (21) blocks a shot by San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) in the first half at Frost Bank Center. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

ORLANDO — Every year, ESPN releases and continually updates its Basketball Power Index, a computer-determined ranking of the NBA's 30 teams. A separate section of the index projects forward for how every team will perform throughout the season, using those metrics as its baseline.

The first version for the 2024-25 season was released on Wednesday morning. It's not kind to the Orlando Magic.

Orlando enters this year on the heels of a three-year improvement that's seen the Magic win 22 games, then 34, then 47 last year. The team appeared in the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and went to a decisive Game 7 in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

This offseason, the Magic brought in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to be its starting shooting guard – a move NBA GMs recently tabbed as one of the most underrated signings of the summer. Now, Orlando looks to ride the upward trajectory of its young forward duo of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the former already being an All-Star and former Rookie of the Year entering his third NBA season, as well as the contributions of guard Jalen Suggs, Caldwell-Pope and others.

ESPN's computer is unimpressed. The projections for the Magic are fewer regular-season wins and a 47% chance of making the playoffs.

Time will tell whether Orlando is able to prove the projections to be disrespectful to coach Jamahl Mosley's team. But the Magic have their bulletin board material.

Here's a closer look at what those rankings say:

BPI: -0.9, 20th in the NBA (0.9, 17th to finish 2023-24)

*Note: ESPN defines its BPI as a measure of a team's true strength on net points scale. "Expected point margin vs. average opponent on neutral court."

The Magic check in as the No. 8 Eastern Conference team in the BPI, marginally behind the Knicks while narrowly ahead of Chicago.

The total BPI is a summation of the offensive and defensive measures, where the Magic's offense heavily weighs down its positive defense (which we'll get to in a moment).

Orlando finished the 2023-24 season, including regular and postseason, 17th in total BPI – meaning that just by making the playoffs, the Magic outperformed the computer's model.

Offensive BPI: -2.6, 26th in the NBA (-2.1, 22nd to finish 2023-24)

*Offensive BPI: "Offensive contribution to expected point margin vs. average opponent on neutral court."

Orlando Magic guard Cole Anthony (50) dribbles past San Antonio Spurs guard Blake Wesley (14) in the second half at Frost Bank Center. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Largely the reason for the lower overall BPI is due to the bottom-five offense the ranking suggests the Magic tote. Entering this season, ESPN's measure favors the Orlando offense only over Portland, Detroit, San Antonio and Washington.

The Magic have had their struggles on that end of the floor for over a decade – finishing in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive rating in each of the previous 12 seasons. Orlando's summer aimed to fix that, bringing in KCP and drafting Tristan da Silva, a steady shooter throughout four years of college at Colorado, to compete for rotation minutes.

ESPN's model doesn't buy the upgrades Orlando made this summer; in fact, a lower ranking comes of it.

Defensive BPI: 1.5, 7th in the NBA (3.0, 3rd to finish 2023-24)

Defensive BPI: "Defensive contribution to expected point margin vs, average opponent on neutral court."

San Antonio Spurs forward Julian Champagnie (30) shoots against Orlando Magic forward Tristan da Silva (23) and center Goga Bitadze (35) in the second half at Frost Bank Center. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Mosley's teams will always identify itself by their defense first, with their positional size and physical tenacity limiting offenses on that end of the floor.

Last year, the Magic vaulted from the 18th-best defense in 2022-23 in the NBA to third in defensive rating in 2023-24. By pairing Caldwell-Pope with defensive stopper Jalen Suggs at the point of attack, Orlando again figures to be a strong defense this season should key players like Suggs, KCP, Jonathan Isaac, and others stay healthy.

The ranking favors Minnesota, Memphis, Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia and Miami over the Magic heading into 2024-25.

Playoff BPI: -1.2, 20th in the NBA (0.9, 17th to finish 2023-24)

Playoff Off. BPI: -2.5, 26th in the NBA

Playoff Def. BPI: 1.4, 8th in the NBA

*Playoff BPI: "Average BPI value throughout the course of the playoffs. Includes past, currently-scheduled, and hypothetical future playoff games." Same reasoning for normal offensive and defensive BPI applies, but in playoff setting.

Magic fans are on their feet during the second half of game six of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kia Center. / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Only marginal changes occur in the playoffs according to the BPI measure. Going by the rankings, the Magic's offense slightly improves while the defense suffers, but only in minuscule amounts.

The measures aren't fans of what Orlando could do should they reach the playoffs.

Projections

• W-L record: 38.7-43.3
• Average seed: 8.6
• 46.9% chance to make playoffs
• 22.5% chance to earn top-6 seed
• 51.8% chance at Play-In Tournament spot
• 13.2% chance to win division
• 0.4% chance to win NBA title

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) drives in against San Antonio Spurs forward Harrison Barnes (40) in the first half at Frost Bank Center. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The big takeaway that emerges from the ranking is not only the lack of faith ESPN's BPI has in the Magic's ability to recreate or build off its past success, but the confidence it seems to have that Orlando will regress in 2024-25.

Orlando's path ahead is tricky once again, figuring to be locked into competition for a top-6 spot in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. The team – players, coaches and front office alike – has spoken multiple times about eyeing more than just a playoff appearance, but series wins and capitalizing on the growth the last three years have brought.

Replicating success will be a tall task, but Orlando took measures to prepare for it all summer with the mindset that they, too, will be a tough team to beat.

The Magic have made a habit of proving doubters wrong before. That looks to be the case again this season.

Related Stories on the Orlando Magic

• MAGIC WANT TO FIX TURNOVER ISSUES: A total of 43 turnovers has Jamahl Mosley calling for his team to do a better job of taking care of the ball. CLICK HERE
• MAGIC IMPROVE OVERALL DESPITE PRESEASON LOSS: Orlando fell to 0-2 in the preseason after a Wednesday night loss in San Antonio. But the game suggests Orlando is trending the right direction. CLICK HERE
• HURRICANE MILTON CANCELS FRIDAY'S MAGIC GAME: Orlando will have to wait a week longer for its home-opening preseason game after Hurricane Milton's anticipated impact canceled the Magic's Friday game. CLICK HERE
• MAGIC EAGER TO CLEAN UP MISTAKES: Wednesday night's game is the first opportunity to correct mistakes from the preseason opener. Here's how the Magic say they'll attack it. CLICK HERE
• WCJ's EXTENSION FULFILLS DESIRE TO STAY WITH MAGIC: Wendell Carter Jr. wants to be a part of the Magic's young core going forward. After telling his agent this is where he wants to be, now, he can say with confidence its where he'll stay. CLICK HERE
• GM SURVEY OFFERS INSIGHTS ABOUT MAGIC AROUND NBA: Here's how opposing general managers perceive the Magic and its players heading into the 2024-25 NBA season. CLICK HERE

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