How Does Magic's Future Compare to Others Around the NBA? ESPN Projects 11th-Best

ESPN released a comprehensive model and ranking system in which the publication utilized a multitude of factors and opinions to determine who has the best three-year future ahead of them. Let's dive into their analysis of the Orlando Magic's upcoming outlook.

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) and forward Franz Wagner (22) celebrate a score against the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at Wells Fargo Center. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Those who regularly partake in the gracious act of sharing wisdom often warn of danger for those who look past the present to focus on the future. In the case of the NBA, however, projections help make the world go around... and shorten the offseason just that little bit more.

With just days until all 30 NBA teams are entrenched in training camp ahead of the NBA's 2024-25 season, ESPN released a ranking on Wednesday that projects who not only could experience success this year, but the following two after that.

Note – The full article does require a subscription to ESPN+.

Because as much as we care about the right now, some teams are more geared toward the future anyway. Being well-positioned for the road ahead is certainly not a bad place to be. Often, teams are in search of a formula that resembles both – competitiveness now and competitiveness later.

In the case of the Orlando Magic, we've seen a slow burn gradually have fuel added on a season-by-season basis. Three years ago, it started with a young core with a young head coach to match. Now, the Magic is progressing, maturing into a rising power in the East with a rising star to boot. Orlando holds possession of the East's largest leap in this current iteration of the NBA, going from basement doormat to raucous knockers on the door of contention in just three seasons.

How does that reflect on ESPN's view of the Magic's future? It's certainly done a few favors.

From a previous ranking of No. 23, Orlando finds itself 11th in this year's future power rankings – a positive boost of 12 spots.

The ranking, as laid out in the article, is an aggregate of five categories utilized to determine a team's ranking:

• Players (worth 58.3%)
• Management (16.7%)
• Money (8.3%)
• Market (8.3%)
• Draft (8.3%)

Here's how Orlando shook out in each category listed:

Players: 13th

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) listens to the national anthem before the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Magic at game seven of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

It's understandable this area carries the most weight, as on-court play determines whether any sort of projections ever reach fruition.

Given the youthful nature of the Magic's still-developing talent compared to counterparts around the NBA with more established options readily available, 13th isn't a bad place to be. Paolo Banchero, just 21 years old at season's start, is already a Rookie of the Year, NBA All-Star and a top-30 player in the league. His supporting cast includes two players on similar timelines: Franz Wagner, a fourth-year player who earned a max extension this summer and Jalen Suggs, an emergent two-way guard who took a monumental step forward last season.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope checks a lot of boxes for what the Magic need, but is less flashy than other splash summer pickups would've been. That means he was cheaper, too – and non-disruptive to the timeline of the three-headed snake that could be the core of Orlando basketball for years to come.

Although the collection of top-end talent isn't as vast as some league rivals, the depth and potential improvements in the future land Orlando in the top-half of the NBA in this category.

ESPN's description for the category factors in expected departures during the next three years, but provided the Magic's best players are there to stay, it's still a solid position to be in.

Management: 14th

Orlando Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman (left), second round draft pick Caleb Houstan (center left), first overall draft pick Paolo Banchero (center right) and Orlando Magic Coach Jamahl Mosley during a press conference at the Amway Center. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Combining with the "players" category, management and players combine for 75% of the score used in the overall positioning.

This factor is meant to measure the stability rooted in all meaningful off-court positions, from ownership of the team to front office leaders and the coaches on the sideline.

The DeVos family purchased the Magic back in 1991, a partnership that still exists today. Alex Martins has served as CEO since December 2011 and has been with the franchise since 2005. President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman has served in his role since May 2017, and has played a significant hand in crafting the rise of the new core leading Orlando Magic basketball. He does so with general manager Anthony Parker, who took over in his role in July 2023.

Finally, head coach Jamahl Mosley enters his fourth NBA season as a head coach – all with the Magic – this year, and is flanked by a staff of assistants that includes Ameer Bahhur, Bret Brielmaier, Lionel Chalmers, Randy Gregory, Jesse Mermuys, Dylan Murphy and Dale Osbourne, according to his National Basketball Coaches Association profile.

Money: 17th

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) drives to the net against Denver Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) in the fourth quarter at Ball Arena. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Orlando's books are in good shape for the future, considering paydays figure to be on the way for Suggs (if the two sides can reach an agreement on an extension) and Banchero – the latter not being extension eligible until next offseason but is a surefire bet to receive a max rookie extension offer.

Although the Magic weren't busy overhauling the roster with new additions this offseason, it had its hands full extending and bringing back a number of key contributors. Jonathan Isaac, Goga Bitadze, Moritz Wagner, Gary Harris and Wagner all got new deals or extensions this summer. In essence, aside from KCP and Cory Joseph's addition and Markelle Fultz and Joe Ingles' subtractions, Orlando is running it back.

The Magic have six players on first-round rookie contracts – Banchero, Suggs, Wagner, Anthony Black, Jett Howard and Tristan da Silva, and own its own first-round draft selections in the next seven drafts. According to ESPN's Bobby Marks, Orlando is one of just five teams that can claim such a statement with accuracy.

So why the low ranking? The category weighs a team's future cap situation, as well as the desire and ability to increasingly extend beyond the cap and take on larger cap penalties. In three season's time, if Orlando is looking at two max contracts in Wagner and Banchero plus a potential Suggs deal at a pretty penny (albeit not max-level), that flexibility may take a slight hit. It would force Orlando to be more careful around the margins and particularly calculated with transactional decisions – a stressing situation the Magic haven't been in for some time now.

It doesn't carry as much weight as other categories in the ranking, but nonetheless, it is the lowest score the Magic clocks in any of the five judging categories.

Market: 14th

Orlando Magic mascot Stuff entertains the crowd during a time out in a game against the Phoenix Suns in the fourth quarter at the Kia Center. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Although the constant traffic on I-4 may suggest otherwise, Orlando's population compared to other NBA cities is actually among the lowest in the league – 29th according to this article posted less than a year ago, topping only Salt Lake City. But that's not all that factors into market size.

In fact, more value is placed upon TV market size. The Magic is Central Florida's only major professional sports team, but according to Nielsen's ratings determined for the 2023-24 television season, Orlando is the 16th-biggest market in America. The rankings state that Orlando-Daytona boasts 1,840,000 TV homes – second in the state of Florida, only four spots behind Tampa-St. Pete and two spots ahead of Miami-Ft. Lauderdale.

What it boils down to is this: Of the 15 markets ahead of Orlando in Nielsen's listing, two don't currently have an NBA team: Tampa-St. Pete and Seattle.

Remove two from 16, and there Orlando sits at No. 14.

But that's not all ESPN's market utilizes to decipher its ranking. It's also how the team would appeal to potential future players, based on the team's quality and reputation, how destination-worthy a city is deemed, tax situation, possible outside ventures to pursue in entertainment and business, and even the quality of the arena, fans and atmosphere at home games.

Orlando had the 12th-highest home attendance last year, and many are quick to mention the absence of state income tax. The rest likely falls into individual preference.

Draft: 10th

Tristan da Silva poses for photos with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected in the first round by the Orlando Magic in the 2024 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Orlando's extended control of its future in the NBA Draft, as written earlier, is rare in today's NBA. That's why this category is Orlando's highest on the board, even if it only factors in at about 12% of the score.

Nine players on the Magic's roster of 15 are homegrown Draft selections, and just two have come outside of the lottery: Tristan da Silva at No. 18 this past summer and Caleb Houstan at No. 32 in 2022.

The patience and trust in young talent to develop is a process that the Magic have reaped the benefits of. Given the flexibility financially and the grasp it has on its future, Orlando's high ranking here makes sense.

In summation...

Orlando finds itself in a solid position for the future while boasting a roster that should be competitive in the East landscape in immediacy. These types of projections change quickly, too – Orlando was one of five teams to increase or decrease their overall ranking in the exercise by at least 10 spots, and several others made sizable jumps just beneath that threshold.

Truthfully, these rankings are opinionated in many factors and, thus, should be taken with a grain of salt. No front office around the league will see any sort of publication's ranking and make reactionary changes because of it. Other things are out of their control anyway.

The purpose is to largely assess the tools every team has at their disposal as the first of the next three years approaches. The deviation comes in how the tools are utilized and what results they yield. Could the Magic be better off in some places? Probably, yeah. But there's worse company Orlando could keep otherwise.

The consensus is that the Magic's trajectory is on the up and up. Yet, that won't mean anything unless it sees itself play out on the court this year and the years after that.

It shouldn't detract from the fun of such an exercise or the fact that it's just that – an exercise.

Related Stories on the Orlando Magic

• 5 MAGIC STORYLINES: Training camp is under a week away. What should we be monitoring in the coming days and weeks before the regular season gets underway in less than a month? CLICK HERE
• MAGIC'S FULL 2024-25 SCHEDULE: As the season approaches, get familiar with the dates and times Orlando takes the floor this season. CLICK HERE
• REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MAGIC THIS YEAR: Orlando may have its best shot (on paper) to snap its playoff series losing streak this year. But should the Magic aim higher? CLICK HERE
• PAT WILLIAMS MEMORY HONORED IN JERSEY PATCH: See the look every Magic uniform will sport this season to honor the late Magic co-founder. CLICK HERE

Want more Orlando Magic coverage on Sports Illustrated?

Follow 'Orlando Magic on SI' on Facebook and like our page. Follow Magic beat reporter Mason Williams on Twitter/X @mvsonwilliams. Also, bookmark our homepage so you never miss a story.