NBA Cup Clinching Scenarios: How Can Magic Secure Knockout Round Spot?

The Orlando Magic are undefeated in NBA Cup group play heading into Tuesday night's finale with the New York Knicks, but they haven't yet locked up a knockout round spot. How can they do so this evening? Here's how.

Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) dunks the ball against the Brooklyn Nets during the first half at Barclays Center. / John Jones-Imagn Images

NEW YORK – The group play stage of the Emirates NBA Cup concludes Tuesday night.

The Orlando Magic and New York Knicks, each 3-0 in the East Group A standings and only separated by point differential in the group table to this point, meet in Madison Square Garden to determine who takes home the group's crown.

Whoever wins will secure a spot into the 8-team knockout round, which begins with the quarterfinal rounds in home arenas of the higher seeds on Dec. 10 and Dec. 11.

Four East teams and four West teams comprise the bracket, and the semifinals and finals are held in Las Vegas. Knockout round spots are clinched by the top team in each five-team grouping (different than normal divisions) and one wild card from each conference - whatever team had the best record and combination of point differential or other tiebreakers.

Here's a look at the current East Group A standings:

1. Orlando Magic: 3-0, +60 point diff.
2. New York Knicks: 3-0, +15 point diff.

All other East Group A teams are eliminated from knockout round contention.

Only one East team has secured its spot in the knockout round: the Atlanta Hawks, who won East Group C. The Boston Celtics finished second in Group C, but are still in contention for the East's wildcard spot. East Group B is still yet to be decided, and it comes down to Milwaukee and Detroit – two more 3-0 teams with only one point separating their two differentials.

On Monday, the NBA worked out the possible clinching scenarios for each East team remaining.

How can Magic clinch a knockout round spot?

1. Orlando clinches Group A with a win over New York.

Orlando would be 4-0 and add to its +60-point differential with a win. The Magic would be one of the two top East seeds, meaning they'd host a quarterfinal round game in Orlando on either 12/10 or 12/11.

2. Orlando clinches the Wild Card spot.

The Magic can lose versus the Knicks and fall to 3-1, but so long as they don't lose by 38 or more points, they'd win the tiebreaker over Boston and the loser of the Milwaukee-Detroit game.

In that case, they'd travel on the road to one of the two highest seeds for their quarterfinal game rather than hosting at home.

Boston has a +23-point differential but has already played all four of their group play games. Milwaukee and Detroit have point differentials of +29 and +28 heading into Tuesday, but one team will clinch their group with a win. For Detroit to win a tiebreaker over other 3-1 teams, they'd have to lose within five points to Milwaukee. For Milwaukee, they'd have to lose within six points to stay in contention. If either team loses by more than their allotment, Boston becomes the second team in line with the +23-point differential.

Some things should be noted:

Overtime scoring does *NOT* count toward point differential and total points tiebreakers. If a game goes into overtime, each team will be assessed a point differential of "0" for that contest and the team's total points will reflect their total at the end of regulation.

If two teams are even on point differential in determining the Wild Card, the next tiebreakers, in sequential order, are total points from group play, records from the 2023-24 NBA regular season, and then a random drawing.

In terms of total points for teams still in contention, for reference:

• Orlando: 335 points, 3 games
• New York: 334 points, 3 games
• Milwaukee: 334 points, 3 games
• Detroit: 340 points, 3 games
• Boston: 482 points, 4 games

Verdict

So, for the Magic to feel truly safe and secure a spot, they can either defeat the Knicks Tuesday night or lose by less than 31 or fewer points. Doing such would avoid any risk of another 3-1 team jumping them in line with a better point differential.

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