Magic Need Paolo Banchero's Efficiency to Improve, but He Can't Do It Alone

Entering year three, Paolo Banchero has all the makings of a star for a team on the rise. Efficiency is imperative for him to take the next step, but the Orlando Magic's All-Star forward needs help.

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) shoots the ball against LA Clippers guard James Harden (1) during the second quarter at KIA Center. / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

ORLANDO –– In two seasons, 21-year-old Paolo Banchero has solidified himself as the Orlando Magic’s cornerstone going forward.

How so? By improving consistently since his arrival as the No. 1 overall pick out of Duke, and inspiring the Magic to new heights. While Orlando was winning 13 more games en route to the playoffs last year, Banchero increased his points, rebounds, assists, steals, and his shooting percentages.

But in the same fashion that Banchero believes his Magic is nowhere near a ceiling for what they can achieve, the same can be said about advancements in his game.

Simply, he can make more shots.

At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, Banchero has spent a good chunk of his first two seasons operating as a point forward. Of players who played at least 1,000 minutes in 2023-24, Banchero’s usage rate was 21st-highest in the NBA. When he was on the floor, 29.2 percent of the Magic’s possessions ended with Banchero taking a shot or free throw or committing a turnover.

The Magic are comfortable with the ball in his hands. They give Banchero the freedom to set up his teammates or hunt for his own shot.

But that process has come with some growing pains, which are to be expected for any second-year player who is adjusting to NBA defenses designed to thwart him. Banchero was whistled for travels 18 times in the regular season, the sixth-highest mark in the league, and he committed 3.1 turnovers a game. Because of his frame and comfort in the mid-range area on the offensive end, 57.8% of his scoring came from two-pointers (14.9% on mid-range shots alone).

For a Magic offense that once again struggled last season, finishing 22nd in offensive rating for a 12th consecutive bottom-10 ranking (longest streak in 28 years of play-by-play data), Banchero is the No. 1 option. 

That means he’s seeing an opponent’s best defender every night, and the lack of floor spacing surrounding him made his job that much tougher. Orlando’s effective field goal percentage was 28th in the NBA on shots outside of the paint (49.5%), and the Magic made just 903 total threes – dead last in the Association.

Then-Chicago Bulls guard Alex Caruso (6) defends Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) during the second half at United Center. / David Banks-Imagn Images

Without a consistent outside threat to keep opposing defenses honest, Orlando’s offense too often would become stagnant, leaving Banchero in isolation scenarios. A recent NBA.com article said that Banchero had the fourth-most isolations per 100 possessions last season – 15.7 of every 100 and 888 possessions total that ended with Banchero having to create his own offense with the shot clock expiring. 

That frequency put him among some of the game’s best players — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. But Banchero’s 1.00 points per direct isolation ranked only 53rd out of 101 players with at least 100 direct isolation opportunities. 

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) and Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) in action during the game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Orlando Magic at the American Airlines Center. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Many times, the shots that come out of isolation chances are dribble pull-ups, which accounted for 604 of his attempts last year (42.9% of all shots attempted). Yet, of 56 players to attempt at least 300 pull-up jumpers in 2023-24, Banchero’s 43.7% eFG was 50th-best. 

Among all of Banchero’s buckets in 2023-24, 58.3% of his field goals were unassisted. When filtering players who saw the floor for at least 30 minutes a night last season, that was the third-highest share for any non-guard.

The shot volume is there for Banchero, but so far the shotmaking is not.

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero's shot map for the 2023-24 NBA regular season. / NBA.com

Some things do boil down to a need for better shots and more makes, but numerous things factor into the other aspects of his offense. Again, he’s just 21, taking on the roles of leading playmaker and scorer. There are bound to be bumps in the road as he refines his shot tendencies and evolves as a playmaker. Those are typically steps forward that come through trial by fire and coaching. 

With two full seasons and a dose of playoff basketball in his knowledge bank, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the game slows down a bit for Banchero and his efficiency numbers rise. 

Yet, Banchero can’t be alone in boosting his game. While this young Magic roster may already be ahead of schedule, their limitations on offense ultimately will hamper forward progress. 

The Eastern Conference figures to again be tightly contested, and the Magic’s third-ranked defense kept them afloat to relieve some of their scoring issues. One can’t help but wonder what heights even just a league-average offense could help Orlando achieve.

This offseason, Orlando made a significant addition in hopes of rectifying their outside shooting flaw. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, signed for three years and $66 million, brings sought-after perimeter spacing and should pair nicely with Jalen Suggs as a daunting point-of-attack defensive combination. He arrives off the third season of his career shooting better than 40% from three, and perhaps most important to his fit in the Magic offensive scheme, he’s comfortable either on or off the ball.

Caldwell-Pope just posted the lowest usage rate of his career (12.6%) and shot 39.7% from three on catch-and-shoot opportunities. But, of 157 players to attempt at least 100 pull-up jumpers last year, his 53.7 eFG% was 11th-best in the NBA. Pull-ups accounted for only 28.2% of his total shot attempts, but when he took them, he made them.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot 39.7% on catch-and-shoot threes last year.

Is he the key to unlocking the #Magic offense that desperately needs spacing? pic.twitter.com/TiRPfpo3ZX

— Mason Williams (@mvsonwilliams) September 17, 2024

That’s not all. Suggs should see a higher percentage of playmaking duties without having to defer to other guards, meaning Banchero could work more as the pick-and-roll screener or receive the ball in more advantageous shooting locations by working there first before reception. 

Banchero’s 53.8% eFG on catch-and-shoot looks is a bit more on-par with where he should be, but those shots accounted for only 11.2% of his attempts – the second-smallest amount of any player in the NBA to take at least 100 catch-and-shoot attempts (Luka’s 8.8% was lower).

A drastic deviation may not be necessary, but rather just enough to capitalize on some of the best aspects of Banchero’s game. Franz Wagner, his running mate on the wing, suffered an abnormally poor shooting year by league standards but still was one of the Magic’s best players. If he can become an average perimeter threat, that should help floor spacing and give Banchero a little more freedom.

All told, Banchero’s relative inefficiency is noticeable, but to write him off as irreparable would be unfair. He’s aware of his game’s faults to this point, and his work ethic suggests he’s taking the right measures to patch them. This summer – Banchero’s first since entering the league that he’d have the time to “get back to basics” – he’s been in the gym with numerous other stars, such as the Phoenix Suns’ Kevin Durant. 

Durant, a two-time NBA champion who has worked with Banchero in the past, is one of the game’s greatest scorers. Last year, on an episode of “The Old Man and the Three” with now-Lakers head coach JJ Redick, Banchero described the intensity and detail that goes into a workout with the 16-year NBA veteran.

#Magic’s Paolo Banchero and #Suns’ Kevin Durant in the gym together: pic.twitter.com/RLOSCsLpSQ

— Mason Williams (@mvsonwilliams) September 6, 2024

“I spent some time with Kevin, that helped me as well just with my shot,” Banchero said. “Seeing how he details – just every single rep looks the same. I think that just woke me up and showed me a different level of working out. Like, you gotta lock in.”

If there’s a picture for efficiency and longevity in scoring in the NBA, he’s it. There’s perhaps no one better to pick the brain of.

“Like, that’s a whole different level that you got to be able to reach.”

Now having been spoiled to that work ethic in consecutive seasons, the pressure is on Banchero to actualize it in year three. But he’ll need help from his teammates to propel further offensively and earn different team results from last year.

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