Magic Stock Report: Assessing 3 Players' Trend Lines After Preseason

The Orlando Magic's regular season begins Wednesday in Miami. Now's a good time to take a look at three players — Paolo Banchero, Anthony Black, and Franz Wagner — and what their preseason performances could mean in the new year.

Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black (0) drives past San Antonio Spurs guard Chris Paul (3) in the second half at Frost Bank Center. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

ORLANDO – The Orlando Magic's preseason is in the rearview mirror, and the regular season is up next.

After three non-consequential games, the results start to count Wednesday, when the Miami Heat play host to the Magic.

Now is a good time to see which players made the most of preseason and what that progress could mean for the year ahead.

Paolo Banchero

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) grabs the rebound against Philadelphia 76ers guard Kelly Oubre Jr. (9) during the first quarter at Kia Center. / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Every so often, talented young players can transcend the timeline to stardom. That's been the case for third-year Magic forward Paolo Banchero who, after consecutive seasons that netted him Rookie of the Year and All-Star honors, is finding new ways to slow down the game.

Many common themes bond top draft picks. Among them, history shows that the third season is where things take off.

Anthony Edwards, the top choice in 2020, was a first-time All-Star in his third season. Scottie Barnes, the Rookie of the Year in 2022, made his first All-Star appearance in 2024. Ja Morant made an All-NBA jump in his Year 3. Orlando doesn't even have to look outside of its own building to see that progression. Jalen Suggs' 2023-24 campaign was by far his best in – you guessed it – his third year.

If Banchero's preseason is any indication, his best is still in store.

In 135 possessions through three games, Banchero averaged 14.0 points on 61.5 percent shooting from the field, adding five rebounds and four assists per. Often criticized for his efficiency or lack thereof, Banchero posted a 65.4 eFG% and 68.1 true shooting percentage as well as a +10.3 net rating (differential between off. and def. rating, where positive is desired) and a 20.7 player impact estimate, which measures a player's all-around contribution to the game.

Banchero barreled to the rim often and found success doing so. Rarely did he force things, instead doing, in his own words, what great players do: whatever the game calls of them.

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero's shot chart for the 2024-25 NBA preseason. / NBA Stats/nba.com

"Those first two years I learned a lot. I'm trying to come in with an improved mindset into my third season."@Pp_doesit 💡 pic.twitter.com/5S9hyuWuqc

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) October 19, 2024

"I think he's just got a level of poise about him," Magic coach Jamahl Mosley said after his team's final preseason game Friday night, where Banchero had 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field. "He's really just stepping into how great he can become."

How far Orlando's group goes this year is a collective effort. But with Banchero, who looks as sharp as he's been in his career, the Magic have a high floor.

Current Stock: Trending up.

Anthony Black

Orlando Magic guard Anthony Black (0) warms up before the game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Kia Center. / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

When assessing which bench players had the best preseason, the answer comes down to one of two second-year guards: Anthony Black or Jett Howard.

Ask Howard and he'll tell you all about his draft classmate from 2023.

"[Black']s been great all training camp, everyone's praising him. It's much deserved, I'll tell you that," Howard said Friday night. "Just vocally, commanding the offense, getting everybody in the right spots, making the right reads pretty much 95 percent of the time.

"Pretty much every shot I'm getting in the preseason has been from him or [Banchero]."

#Magic guard Jett Howard on Anthony Black:

"Just knowing AB, he's always stepping up to the challenge... He's been great all training camp, everyone's praising him, and it's been much deserved, I'll tell you that."

Full comment: pic.twitter.com/N6h5LV2ihy

— Mason Williams (@mvsonwilliams) October 19, 2024

Black played 20 minutes a game off the bench in three games, averaging 9.3 points and 4.3 assists. He shot 56.3% from the field and made three of his six triples. His 65.6 eFG% and 70.1 true shooting percentage were 11 and 14 percentage points higher than his regular-season totals last year. And with a 20 percent usage rate, Black accounted for 43.4% of the team's assists.

Turnovers were still frequent, a telltale sign that yes, the second-year guard is still getting a handle on the increased playmaking reps. But without a true second-unit initiator returning to the roster from last year, this month was pivotal to let Black grow into his opportunity.

"They're giving me a chance to play and make mistakes, just kind of run the [second unit]," Black said. "They're trusting me and talking to me, helping me through everything.

"Definitely feeling a lot more comfortable, doing what I know how to do, so it's definitely been a good camp."

Current Stock: Trending up.

Franz Wagner

Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (22) shoots the ball over Philadelphia 76ers center Andre Drummond (5) during the first quarter at Kia Center. / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

The fourth-year forward out of Michigan has been a polarizing figure for two reasons: his new contract and his outside shooting.

The recipient of a five-year, $224-million extension this summer, Wagner is one of the franchise's cornerstones. A player's rookie extension is as much or more about what they can be in the future versus what they already are.

Wagner, another ball-handling 6-10 forward who is a more-than-capable defender and scorer from multiple levels, is a player any team would want to have. Had Wagner shot a similar percentage from deep in year three that he did in years one and two (28.1% in 2023-24, 36.1% and 35.4% the two respective years prior), the perception of him would be different around the league. His 19.7 points per game almost certainly would have eclipsed 20-plus a night, and there'd be less commentary over whether or not he deserved the contract.

However, looking too far into "woulds" and "coulds" doesn't offer the fairest perception of where a player is right now. While Wagner found other ways to impact the game with his defense and playmaking, he struggled with his own scoring throughout the three preseason games.

Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner's shot chart for the 2024-25 NBA preseason. / NBA Stats/nba.com

Wagner shot 29.6 percent from the field and missed all seven of the threes that he attempted. He didn't score away from the rim (other than free throws).

This summer, his focus was "a lot on my shot" he said at media day, working to get the mechanics right. But he also acknowledged honing his mindset, keeping a clear mind and how he can accomplish what he needs to in a way that best aligns with the team's intentions.

"Sometimes it's easy to look at the stats and say, 'Oh, he didn't shoot it well,' but sometimes there's a little bit more to the story or a different point where you have to improve that, and that's what I try to focus on," Wagner said. "At the end of the day, once the game starts, it's not overthinking anymore. You just have to play and trust what you did in the summer."

So, while attention may gravitate toward the low percentages, it's important to keep in mind that the preseason means only so much. Any takeaway should be heeded with some caution – both positive and negative. What's more important is that Wagner still has the confidence to shoot, because Orlando is a better team when he's taking and making his shots.

For instance, here are the totals for how Wagner has shot in the preseason versus the regular season:

Year	Preseason	Regular Season
2021-22	26.1 FG%, 5.8 FGA/game 28.6 3PT%, 3.5 3PA/game	46.8 FG%, 12.3 FGA/game 35.4 3PT%, 3.4 3PA/game
2022-23	43.3 FG%, 10.0 FGA/game 25.0 3PT%, 5.3 3PA/game	48.5 FG%, 14.0 FGA/game 36.1 3PT%, 4.5 3PA/game
2023-24	75.0 FG%, 8.0 FGA/game 63.6 3PT%, 3.7 3PA/game	48.2 FG%, 15.2 FGA/game 28.1 3PT%, 4.6 3PA/game
2024-25	29.6 FG%, 9.0 FGA/game 0.0 3PT%, 2.3 3PA/game	?

We may look back and see this as a time of growing pains from adjustments to his shot or a precursor to more struggles. For now, he's down, but making that sizable of a projection for the ensuing 82-game marathon right now isn't yet ethical.

Current Stock: Trending down.

Related Stories on the Orlando Magic

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• MAGIC CONVERTS MCCLUNG TO A TWO-WAY: The Orlando Magic converted Mac McClung's partially guaranteed contract into a two-way contract and waived Jarrett Culver, Alex Morales, Jalen Slawson and Ethan Thompson. CLICK HERE
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• 'SO MUCH LOVE': Orlando has missed Magic basketball for the past few months. The fans in attendance made that loud and clear – literally – during the team's unofficial home-opening win over the Philadelphia 76ers. CLICK HERE
• PRESEASON FINALE INSTANT OBSERVATIONS: The Orlando Magic closed out its preseason slate with a victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night in the Kia Center, 114-99. CLICK HERE

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