The Orlando Magic Are Better When Jonathan Isaac is Available: Stat Stories

Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac is a high-percentile defender in seemingly every advanced metric and is a key role player who impacts winning. However, his injury history suggests that keeping him on the floor will be the biggest key to utilizing him to full effect.

Apr 25, 2024; Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) dunks during the second quarter of game three of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kia Center. / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

In preparation for the 2024-25 NBA season, Orlando Magic on SI will be diving into Stat Stories: a series about the statistical measures of performance that could be of utmost importance for the Orlando Magic to succeed this year. 

Ever since his arrival to the NBA, the path to complete health for Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac has been complicated. 

Since his selection as the No. 6 overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, Isaac has played in just 217 games, including regular and postseason. His injury history has been vast and unforgiving.

In the seven years he’s been rostered in the league, Isaac has appeared in just 36.9% of 555 possible regular-season games. Just twice in his career, he has been healthy enough to play in more than half of the games in a given season. 

But finally, there could be light. To the delight of both Isaac and the franchise that hasn’t wavered in its belief toward him, the 2023-24 season was one of those campaigns – an elite defender staying on the floor and providing impact over 58 games and all seven playoff games.

“This is my first real offseason without an inkling of an injury or feeling, rehabbing, anything like that,” Isaac said in an all-access video provided by the Magic earlier this summer.

Isaac is as impactful a role player that Orlando has when he’s on the floor. So, when considering the statistics that should be of major focus for each player to help contribute to wins this upcoming season for the Magic, Isaac’s is perhaps as basic as they come: games played.

Last season was possibly the most productive of his career.

For the first time, Isaac shot better than 50% from the field, including 59.8% on two-point attempts. Although he has two seasons with higher point-per-game averages than the 6.8 points he contributed per contest in 2023-24, last year was by far his most efficient body of work. 

He had a 58.4 effective field goal percentage (eFG%*), which was four points better than league average (54.7%), and was three points better than league average in true shooting percentage (61.0% versus 58.0%).

*eFG% takes into account that a made three-point basket is worth more than a made two-pointer. So, where traditional field-goal percentage is determined by dividing total field goals by total field goal attempts, eFG% counts a made three as 1.5 field goals and a made two as 1.0. Example: The traditional percentage for 5-of-10 shooting is 50%. But if all five of those field goals were three-point baskets, then multiply 5 by 1.5 and divide by 10. The eFG% is 75%.

Isaac’s offensive game amounted to a 113.0 offensive rating – a measure of how many points are produced per 100 possessions – which was the best of his career. But where Isaac truly hangs his hat is on the defensive end of the floor, which aligned with Orlando’s team identity last season.

Apr 27, 2024; Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac (1) blocks the shot of Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (4) in the fourth quarter during game four of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kia Center. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Magic as a collective had the NBA’s third-best defense with a 110.8 defensive rating, but Isaac’s 102.1 individual defensive rating was the best mark in the league by a significant margin. The next closest qualified defender was Houston’s Jae’Sean Tate at 105.0. When factoring in both his offensive and defensive ratings, Isaac was 10th among all qualified players in net rating with a career-best +10.9 mark.

At 6-foot-10 and 230 pounds, Isaac’s lengthy frame helps him be all over the floor, and his mobility allows him to guard any position 1 through 5. To be free of injury and have the capacity to trust his build to withstand the demands of top-flight defense is crucial for Isaac’s game. His 7.1% block percentage and 2.3% steal percentage categorize him as both an elite rim protector and defender anywhere on the court – a status impossible to maintain if he’s limited physically.

When Isaac was on the floor, opponents scored 7.8 fewer points per 100 possessions played and had an eFG% 3.7 percentage points lower than when he wasn’t on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. Each standing was in the 94th percentile of all relative players. Opponents also turned the ball over 1.9% more often when Isaac was on the floor, which was in the 89th percentile in the NBA.

Jonathan Isaac: ridiculously talented defender. #Magic pic.twitter.com/4cuDC5XxMG

— Mason Williams (@mvsonwilliams) August 23, 2024

It’s clear Isaac is among the higher echelons of role players who impact winning. When he is fit to play, the Magic are a better team by just about any metric. But how can Orlando ensure they get to keep utilizing Isaac to his fullest extent? Part of that solution was figured out while he was sidelined.

Before his injury history forced him to lose two complete years, Orlando was starting Isaac and playing him upward of 26 minutes a night. After drafting forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who now have ascended into starring roles for the present and future of the franchise, Isaac’s role can be more specialized and he can play fewer minutes but more games.

Case in point: Isaac appeared in 58 games last season, but he played fewer total minutes than he did in 34 games in the 2019-20 season. 

The difference in minutes per game between the two seasons is 15.8 in 2023-24 to 28.8 five years earlier. The change has been beneficial for both parties – both Orlando’s team success and Isaac’s health and productivity.

While all of Isaac’s metrics are insightful into what he brings to the Magic, the main thing to track is the number of games played. Because the best ability is availability.

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