Paolo Banchero Could Have Sights Set on All-NBA Nod in Third NBA Season with Orlando Magic

Paolo Banchero has set, and achieved, lofty goals throughout his career to this point. What does past precedent say about what's next for the Orlando Magic star, and how could it be achieved?

Mason Williams | Aug 7, 2024

May 3, 2024: Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero warms up before game six of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Kia Center. / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

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Few NBA stars are as outward and open about the visualization of their goals as Orlando’s Paolo Banchero. They’re lofty. Meticulous. To this point, all have been achievable, too.

It starts with an obsession with the craft that transforms aspiration into actualization. His agent called him “sick" in near-on psychotic fashion, but reiterated Banchero’s acknowledgment that all the great ones are.

There was a real desire to be Orlando’s top choice in the 2022 NBA Draft; to be Rookie of the Year; an NBA All-Star in year two. Objectives like these have been a part of his mental trajectory long before they materialized.

“That’s just how I operate. I got to set goals and go chase them,” Banchero told JJ Redick in an in-season interview of the now-former “The Old Man and The Three” show. “Everything that I’ve been able to do, I thought about it way before it happened.”

How does he go about checking off boxes? With consistent improvement that maintains escalation toward whatever is next – no matter whether accomplishments be individual or team-oriented.

When considering the impressive leap forward Banchero took from year one to two in the Association, wonders of what’s in store for his third tour of an NBA campaign begin to flutter. But in projecting what that might look like, is there a past precedent to follow that could provide a glimpse of where he and the franchise he’s the face of could be headed next?

Using the similar season finder tool on CraftedNBA’s website, a player’s season can be compared to any other player’s ranging from now back to 1978. When entering Banchero’s most recently concluded year, at age 21, the results are immensely intriguing.

Of the 25 most similar offensive seasons to Banchero’s sophomore NBA run, 20 of which are one or two-guards. No, not forwards like that of the 6-10, 250-pound stature Banchero possesses. Taking into account Banchero’s advanced metrics and how they related to the league average that season, his offensive profile is most similar to his smaller on-court counterparts.

In total, three individual seasons draw offensive similarity scores of 91 – the highest in correlation to Orlando’s star forward.

The top spot on that list? It belongs to Ja Morant in his age-21 season (2020-21), the Memphis Grizzlies' high-octane point guard who was already becoming quite the impressionable star in his second season in the league. At first glance, Banchero’s guard-heavy comparisons can be misconstrued as incorrect. Yet when considering the usage rates of the former Duke standout as a primary ballhandler and the hub through which the Magic offense operates, not to mention watching the games from a season ago, there’s reason to understand the similarity.

Oct 11, 2022: Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero brings the ball upcourt against Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant and guard Desmond Bane. / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Banchero carried 48.5% of the offensive load and created 8.4 open looks for teammates per 100 possessions for Orlando in 2023-24, each measure in the league’s 97th percentile respectively. For comparison’s sake, Morant’s 2021 season featured him shouldering 51.8% of Memphis’ offensive load and creating 9.5 open looks per 100 poss. In crafted plus-minus, Morant’s season holds a +.5 margin over Banchero’s, – 0.7 over 0.2.

But beyond numbers, there’s further congruence between Morant and Banchero that could prove fortuitous for both his and the Magic’s prospects in 2024-25 as the season is just two and a half months away. Morant’s 2021 season came on the heels of his own Rookie of the Year award, and he’d go on to earn his first All-Star selection in 2022. The Grizzlies guard saw jumps in points per game (+8.3), FG% (+4.4%), 3PT% (+4.1%) and eFG% (+4.3%); all while increasing his shot volume by over five attempts per game (15.2 to 20.6). He was crowned Most Improved Player, finished seventh in NBA Most Valuable Player voting and was named Second-Team All-NBA in what likely qualifies as his best campaign to date.

With Morant at the helm, Memphis improved from a 38-34 record in the shortened season following COVID-19 and a 9th-place finish in the West to a 56-26 record and No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

As year three approaches, Banchero already has the All-Star nod under his belt but is still seeking a first-time All-NBA appearance. He earned consideration from a few voters last season, with two Second-Team votes and four selections to the Third-Team, but was still 60 total points shy of the final spot on Third-Team.

He experienced jumps in points per game, assists per game, FG%, 3PT% and eFG% over the course of the season, helping to elevate Orlando to a top-four finish come playoff time in the Eastern Conference. As competitors around the East have loaded up, so too has the Magic – most notably adding Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to provide spacing and scoring presence to a bottom-third offense from a season ago by offensive rating.

There’s an added importance to surrounding Banchero’s playmaking ability with shooters adept at taking advantage of it. On a clip from “Mind the Game” with Redick and LeBron James, Banchero was listed as one of the top-5 most blitzed players in the league on isolation plays last year, and 53.5% of his looks came with the closest defender within four feet or closer – shots the NBA defines as “tight” or “very tight” in terms of defense. Scorers that attract attention away from Banchero open avenues for better looks of his own and limit the amount of bodies teams can throw at him.

When Memphis burst onto the scene in the third year of Morant’s career, his leap between the second and third year certainly factored into the equation. But a full healthy year of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane’s outside shooting lent a helping hand.

Caldwell-Pope’s contributions this upcoming season, plus increases in perimeter scoring from the likes of Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and others, would be pivotal toward a similar style of improvement for Orlando when paired with the capability of another Banchero step forward.

Between Morant and Banchero, each was widely recognized as the best player on their team and the future of their franchise in just their second year. It took until the third year, however, for Morant to truly emerge onto the scene among voters and into the landscape of transcendence from just one franchise. That’s the type of recognition an All-NBA selection garners, one of the many additives on the path to superstardom.

As Banchero enters his third season this fall, the same climb into the echelon of elites is on the table. With the right factors coming into play, it may only be a matter of time anyway.

If past precedent is true regarding his peers in the league who have earned the nod or his history with goals he set out for himself, we’ll know one thing for certain should it all come to fruition in 2024-25: Banchero will have had it written.

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