What Might Jalen Suggs' Next Contract Command of the Orlando Magic?

The deadline for the Orlando Magic to sign a rookie-scale contract extension with fourth-year guard Jalen Suggs is Oct. 21. How rich could the contract terms be and what implications could it have on the Magic's roster flexibility?

Jan 2, 2024; Orlando Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley and guard Jalen Suggs (4) confer during the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center. / D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

ORLANDO — Prior to the 2024-25 NBA season, a financial deadline looms with the prospect of forcing teams such as the Orlando Magic into potentially tough decisions.

The contract extension deadline is Oct. 21, a day before opening night. The Magic are one of a few teams presented with the opportunity to lock in a member of their young core.

Jalen Suggs is entering the final season of his 4-year, $29.95-million rookie deal that he signed after being selected fifth overall by the Magic in the 2021 NBA Draft.

In an offseason that has seen the Magic make calculated moves aimed at solidifying a spot near the top of the Eastern Conference – they’re public about it, too – an extension for Suggs is perhaps the last thing on this summer’s checklist. Suggs’ draft classmate, Franz Wagner, got his payday this summer, agreeing on a 5-year, $224-million extension that will carry him through the 2029-30 season.

Suggs’ third season was his best since arriving in the NBA, averaging 12.6 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists on 47.1/39.7/75.6 shooting splits. The progression of his offensive game has him as the Magic’s third option, behind Paolo Banchero and Wagner, and it pairs nicely with his defensive prowess as one of the best perimeter defenders in the league – justified by his selection to the NBA’s All-Defensive Second Team.

Should the Magic not lock in Suggs’ future in a Magic jersey before the deadline passes, he’d enter next summer as a restricted free agent. Orlando then could make him a qualifying offer, which would allow the Magic to match any offer sheet from another team to Suggs. But signing the former Gonzaga product to a long-term deal this summer would be a vote of confidence.

The question then: How much could his contract command?

Apr 22, 2024; Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) looks to pass in the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers during game two of the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. / David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Fellow members of his draft class who have signed extensions include Evan Mobley with Cleveland, Cade Cunningham with Detroit, and Scottie Barnes with Toronto, plus Wagner’s deal mentioned earlier. Each of those new contracts is a max deal – reserved for those who are typically a top scoring option, or close second, for their franchise.

How teams structure their books with contracts is also altered from previous years by the current collective bargaining agreement, where teams are heavily penalized financially for tendering too many expensive contracts and exceeding tax aprons. The CBA also limits the amount of flexibility a team has regarding what roster transactions teams can make. Point being, it’s a status most teams look to avoid at all costs – even if it means letting talented players walk.

All-Star forward Paolo Banchero is expected to get a max contract extension next summer worth up to 25% of the Magic’s salary cap, with incentives for All-NBA nods. Wagner and Banchero together will be worth nearly 50 percent of the initial salary cap ($140.588 million in 2024-25). 

Given those outlays, the Magic must decide how much money they are comfortable wrapping into Suggs’ next contract.

“We’re hoping to get (Suggs’ contract extension) across the finish line eventually,” said Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman during a SiriusXM NBA radio interview interview in July. “The timeline is different with every conversation. Like I said, we have young guys on our team that we want to try to keep together.”

When determining the appropriate contract figure, Suggs’ best comparisons are likely non-max players around his age who have already locked in extensions. 

Immanuel Quickley’s 5-year, $175-million deal with Toronto has him at 23.12% percent of the league’s cap, but he’s a borderline second option for the Raptors, who have R.J. Barrett, Bruce Brown and Jakob Poeltl at 18.3%, 16.4% and 13.9% of the league cap, respectively. Scotty Barnes’ new contract kicks in following this season, when Brown’s $23 million is off the books. Quickley is an impressive young guard whose been given more leeway since being traded from the Knicks, and his contract is a reflection of the Raptors' interest in him as a potential top-two player in their system.

Jaden McDaniels’ 5-year, $131-million deal in Minnesota places him as the fourth highest-paid player for the Timberwolves, who are perhaps more comfortable shelling out expensive deals despite the current ownership dispute.

At 16.37% of the league’s cap, McDaniels is a fourth starter alongside Karl-Anthony Towns’ 35%, Rudy Gobert’s 31.2%, and Anthony Edwards’ 30% cap hits. For what McDaniels provides to the Timberwolves, however, his price tag could be viewed as a better value than a first glance may suggest – especially for a contending team in the Western Conference.

With Banchero and Wagner likely ahead of Suggs in the Magic’s pecking order, paying him top-two option money along the lines of Quickley’s figure could come with risk and potential future roster limitations. Yet, with his performance exceeding that of a fourth option in Orlando's system, it’s more realistic that he sees a deal that would exceed the price for McDaniels.

Jonathan Isaac’s new contract is worth $25 million for Orlando this season, but that figure drops to $15 million in 2025-26. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s two-year deal is worth 16.2% and 14.0% of the league cap over the next two years, with a player option valued at 12.7% in the third year. As for the actual money involved, Caldwell-Pope’s $66 million is spread into $22.75 million this year and $21.6 the two years following.

The rising cap year-over-year means these inflated numbers are increasingly common in the new NBA financial landscape.

The salary cap for the 2025-26 season, the year Suggs’ new deal would take effect, is around $154.6 million. With the current contracts on the Magic’s books, Orlando figures to have around $31.5 million in flexible space below the first tax apron. Could a deal with Suggs land around a $30 million AAV (average annual value) and keep the Magic under the first apron? Or, would the Magic be comfortable leaning into the apron to satisfy Suggs financially?

Apr 14, 2024; Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) dunks during the second half against the Milwaukee Bucks at KIA Center. / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

In June, Keith Smith of Spotrac projected Suggs’ extension would land at four years and $112 million, with no options included in the deal. At $28 million AAV, he’d be worth just over 18.1% of the Magic’s '25-26 salary cap. A four-year deal would carry Suggs through his age-27 season or Orlando could sign him for five years even without a max contract – another new wrinkle in the most recent CBA.

For reference, a deal at $30 million AAV would have Suggs at 19.4% of the salary cap.

Should Suggs hit restricted free agency, a max 25% salary cap offer sheet would be north of $38 million, meaning a match from Orlando would exceed the projected first tax apron.

Therefore, it’s crucial for the Magic to lock in the deal before the season starts to have the financial numbers that back their young guard and to avoid either restricting themselves further by signing him to a max rookie scale deal or – much worse – losing him entirely to the highest bidder.

Time is money, and with just over two months until the deadline, Suggs and Orlando could be on the clock to find the right price.

(All contract figures, percentages and future cap projections referenced in this article are provided by Spotrac.)

Related Stories on the Orlando Magic

• JALEN SUGGS' THREE-POINT IMPROVEMENT: The third year of Suggs' career saw him take leaps forward as a shooter. Can it be sustained? CLICK HERE
• BANCHERO COVERS SLAM KICKS: The Magic's rising star made his third career SLAM Cover appearance and discussed the Magic's high expectations in 2024-25. CLICK HERE
• 'WE FEEL LIKE WE'RE RIGHT THERE': Paolo Banchero didn't mince for words on ESPN's First Take Friday – his Magic are here to stay in the East. CLICK HERE