Dallas Mavericks Scouting Notes Before Conference Finals Matchup Against Minnesota Timberwolves

There are various important factors to monitor throughout the Dallas Mavericks' Western Conference Finals matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Jan 7, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Grant Williams (3) and guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrate a basket made against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

MINNEAPOLIS — The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to play out a hard-fought series in the Western Conference Finals. There’s a lot to unpack before Game 1 gets underway on Wednesday at Target Center.

The Mavericks and Timberwolves faced each other four times in the regular season, but with recent trades and plenty of injuries, the meaningful nature of these samples is minimal. These two teams played each other twice in Abu Dhabi as the first NBA action of the season, but those were exhibition games that didn’t hold much weight.

Jan 7, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Grant Williams (3) and guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrate a basket made against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

There are very few two-man lineup combos for Dallas that logged 50 minutes together, with plenty of them including Grant Williams, who is no longer on the team, along with Tim Hardaway Jr. The most frequently used lineup played 10 minutes, including Richaun Holmes and Williams, with other names being Jaden Hardy, Josh Green, and Hardaway. If you even look at the previous season, Doncic and Irving were at the beginning of their partnership and have grown significantly on the court since then with a different supporting cast around them.

Let's take a close look at some strategic elements to monitor in the series.

Timberwolves Boast NBA’s Best Defense

There wasn’t a better defensive team during the regular season than the Timberwolves. Not much needs to be said. Rudy Gobert is now a four-time Defensive Player of the Year winner. They’ve only improved from that 108.4 defensive rating to having a 107.6 defensive rating in the postseason. Jaden McDaniels was named to the All-Defensive Second Team. Minnesota has plenty of talent around them, as well. Not having a homecourt advantage against a team that has advanced as far as they ever have in many years will not be an easy environment to handle.  

What Kind of Scoring Can We Expect from Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving?

Based on how the Timberwolves approach pick-and-roll, the Mavericks could face challenges receiving strong scoring production from their play-finishing centers. There will be plenty of these sequences where Doncic is taking a step-back 3 against McDaniels, and that works if his shot is falling at a high clip. The same can be said if Minnesota switches screens and allows Karl-Anthony Towns or Naz Reid to try to hold their own, but I’d imagine that’ll be reduced in the postseason, or at least mixed up with late doubles and hedge and recover. More creativity will be needed from Dallas. The same could be said about Conley.

NBA scoring leader Doncic is coming off a tougher series than usual in terms of his scoring. His performance seems to be primarily a health question. He’s continuing to power through a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness, but he has the benefit of only playing one game since leading a road victory in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, May 15. That’s one game in five days, with three full days off before Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. He began to find a rhythm later in the series against the Thunder. Will he pick up where he left off in Minnesota?

Irving was held to multiple scoring performances below 10 points against the Thunder. He had more shots than points in Game 6 against OKC, showing more aggression despite still commanding aggressive defensive coverages. With the need to push the pace against Minnesota, having different mechanisms to attack in the half-court, and the benefit of making Anthony Edwards work on defense, Irving’s involvement will be intriguing to monitor.

In two career games played against the Timberwolves with Irving in the lineup, Doncic has averaged 33.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists. Meanwhile, Irving averaged 35.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in those same games. The only matchup this season was a big home victory for Dallas in early January, with Doncic finishing with 34 points and eight assists, while Irving added 35 points and five assists. Accounting for both players was an obvious challenge.

How Will Timberwolves Approach Ball Screen Coverages?

With Gobert anchoring their defense, the Timberwolves can deploy drop coverage where he handles guarding 2-with-1 for stretches while trying to shrink the floor when they see fit and living with the results. However, they wouldn’t need to send the low man as aggressively as other defenses due to Gobert’s presence. They could try to establish more of a balance and try to disrupt either P.J. Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. on the catch. However, Jones has been designated as the weak shooter in previous matchups and dared to shoot. Doncic will need to use his strength to his advantage by getting into the gap by snaking traditional ball screen coverages or flips or re-screens if Gobert stays in more of a drop, which he tends to do and could be more straightforward against McDaniels’ frame compared to Luguentz Dort in the previous series.

Minnesota could try to have Gobert use his length on blitzes and trust the rest of the unit to handle the 4-on-3. They’ve done this frequently against Doncic and Irving. With Doncic being the most blitzed player in the NBA, Dallas gained a significant number of reps countering this approach, even having success with either Dereck Lively II, Jones, or Daniel Gafford playing out of the pocket. With wings capable of attacking closeouts and getting to a floater playing off two feet when the finish isn’t there, the Mavericks have effective personnel to handle blitzing. In previous matchups, Minnesota has deployed a hedge and recover technique, even with Gobert being the big defender.

Irving needs to be an instrumental element of the Mavericks’ offensive attack. He’s proven highly effective as an offensive threat in general, but in terms of schematic conversation, he’s a menace against drop coverage and when playing out of side actions. Putting him into actions to attack Gobert in drop coverage for pull-ups, whether from the perimeter or short-range, would be a good way for Irving to get into a rhythm if Minnesota will continue to live with it.

Depending on who the Timberwolves have guard Derrick Jones, there could be real opportunities for Dallas to get creative in exploiting favorable opportunities for Irving to attack. Jones has an impressive ability to play out of uphill dribble handoffs. Irving has leveraged that to pick apart defenses in the right matchup, whether he’s using a pocket pass after drawing two defenders or attacking a gap or the baseline looking to score. Whether Conley or Towns guards Jones, there are advantages that can be had. The same can be said about high ball screens with Doncic and playing out of the short roll. If Edwards does guard Irving for long stretches, making him work by running these actions with Irving could be an effective way to do it.

The matchup responsible for Washington will also be an important one to monitor. If the Timberwolves tried to hide Conley on him, he’s already shown capable of being featured on post touches to use his combination of size and touch.

If Towns guards Washington, he could be a helpful option to deploy in screening actions to make Towns have to guard them and get size out of the paint before creating a downhill attack. What makes Minnesota so challenging is that Gobert would still be in position to protect the paint in all of these scenarios if Lively or Gafford are trying to flash or are parked in the dunker spot.

Potential Mismatches to Watch

Both teams are well-equipped to handle each other’s top perimeter talents from a direct matchup standpoint. Jaden McDaniels is the obvious answer on Doncic, while Edwards will spend plenty of time on Irving. Meanwhile, Dallas will likely trust Jones to take on Edwards due to his quickness and length, ideally disrupting Edwards from comfortably getting to his preferred spots on the floor.

Towns could pose problems for the Mavericks, considering their lack of depth at the four spot, with Maxi Kleber remaining sidelined due to a shoulder injury. They must live with 6-foot-7 Washington holding his own and ideally avoiding foul trouble without having a 6-foot-10 option off the bench to deploy next to Lively or Gafford. Washington dealt with foul trouble in Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and wasn’t conceding size the way he is in this head-to-head scenario.

Lively and Gafford will have to deal with Gobert, which will be an excellent test for both. How they manage to make an impact still when the lob isn’t there will likely be predicated on their aggression and execution on the offensive boards. Otherwise, they will need to be ready to quickly launch off two feet and use shot fakes, as they were more intentional about doing against Chet Holmgren last round.

It’s important to look past how the starters will match up with each other since there’s a lot that goes on throughout 48 minutes. The Mavericks have less frequently deployed four guard lineups since making trade deadline moves but did deploy them more as their series went on against the Thunder. Dallas must account for Reid off the bench as well, and frontcourt shooting threats have posed problems for this defense at times this season.

How Can Each Side Protect Their Smaller Guard?

Considering Conley's importance to the Timberwolves’ offense, making him unplayable as a small guard will be vital. He makes it easier for Edwards to focus on scoring rather than having to get others involved when they don’t share the floor. Dallas has targeted Conley in the post by using both Doncic and Irving in the past, using Conley’s man in guard-to-guard screening actions to command that switch. At some point, Minnesota might need to use a hedge-and-recover approach against this, unlike the regular season.

Dallas must be cognizant of how Irving is protected in his own right. While it was just preseason in Abu Dhabi, that was an explicit limitation Dallas had at times, with smaller guards like Irving or Curry having to handle more significant players. Irving has shown quick hands that can pry the ball loose, but regardless, being a smaller guard and trying to hold your own against size is still a factor to monitor.

Half-Court Offensive Creativity to Open Up the Floor

The typical high pick-and-roll and isolation approach will face limitations against the Timberwolves. Dallas's methods to open the half-court more have involved deploying Zoom actions where an off-ball screen setting the pindown has shooting gravity to open up an advantage before the handoff, along with double screener actions like double drag or Stack pick-and-roll.

The goal would be to find the right approach that makes it difficult for Gobert to protect the rim how he typically does. Dallas should still expect the low defender to rotate to the paint, especially if it’s Towns, leaving Jones in the weak-side corner if he’s spacing or above the break if he’s popping after being one of the screeners in double drag or Stack pick-and-roll. Doncic sometimes rejects screens against Gobert, even if it involves more layered ball screen actions than just high pick-and-roll. Jones has to hit shots to make the defense pay. There’s no other way around this.

The two-man game with Doncic and Irving will be more difficult to deploy if Edwards stays on Irving as more of a primary matchup. Bringing Edwards and McDaniels into the action diminishes its value since the intent is to generate a switch. Conley or either Towns or Reid would be a more advantageous option to bring up into the action.

Minnesota has the potential to get creative in its own right by deploying a Reid-Towns frontcourt combination to go five-out offensively. Making the necessary defensive rotations to prevent clean shots will be difficult but essential. Dallas has to punish that group when attacking on offense, making it challenging to deploy the combination for extended stretches.

Dallas Must Push the Pace

Given Minnesota's effectiveness at defending in the half-court, the Mavericks will need to be aggressive about finding chances to push the pace. Dallas has also taken pride in doing this as a foundational element of its identity this season. It’s important to turn missed shots by the Timberwolves or turnovers into advantages for open-floor opportunities to attack, whether by Doncic making throw-ahead passes or attacking grab-and-go opportunities.

Irving pushing the pace for pull-ups or rim attacks is another helpful layer, particularly for him to build a rhythm and make momentum-swinging plays. It’s a helpful way for athletic role players to make an impact, particularly Jones, to get the ball to put it on the floor for a dribble or two and make a play if a simple catch and finish isn’t there. It’s also a helpful way to get a big like Lively or Gafford a touch for a finish. Converting on catch-and-shoot attempts will be important, particularly corner looks.

Rebounding Becomes More Important; Challenges to Consider with Re-Drives

The Mavericks were able to punish the Thunder's lack of impact on the boards, but doing so against Gobert and Towns will not be easy. Dallas has trailed only the New York Knicks in terms of offensive rebounding efficiency, with Lively and Gafford aggressively pursuing offensive rebounds in the paint, along with athletic perimeter players tracking long misses. Minnesota will surely seek to contain this to make Dallas more efficient on initial attempts, then create fastbreak opportunities for Edwards to get going on the break.

It'll also be important for Dallas to minimize Minnesota's second-chance scoring opportunities. When trying to fly around the half-court, it's tough to finish plays against highly impactful rebounding threats with size that tend to stay near the rim like Gobert. Getting a body on him and crashers from the perimeter will be necessary for the Mavericks.

Keep in mind that Minnesota has skilled frontcourt talents with size, like Towns and Reid, who command attention on closeouts and can put it on the floor to make plays. That's had to be accounted for. If either of those bigs gets by a closeout or is intentionally run off the line, it's up to the rest of the unit to rotate and contest, which makes rebounding more difficult.

Shrinking the Floor Against Jaden McDaniels and “Weak” Shooters

A foundational element of the Mavericks’ defensive approach has been to shrink the floor by identifying a weaker shooter to sag off and take shots. Jaden McDaniels would be the best candidate for this approach in the Timberwolves’ starting lineup, but he’s a better shooter than someone like Josh Giddey, who received this treatment last round. Dallas will undoubtedly need to get out and contest McDaniels more. Having him settle for tough short-range pull-ups, floaters, or force passes has worked at times for Dallas in previous matchups as well.

McDaniels is coming off a 23-point performance in Game 7, shooting 7 of 10 overall, 3 of 4 from the perimeter, and 6 of 7 on free throws, so he’s capable of making plays. He’s shooting 34.4% from the perimeter in the postseason but is taking 2.9 attempts per game.

Again, it’s important to get out on him. Doncic will likely be the one guarding him and will have to continue to make the same efforts he did against OKC by getting out to contest and funneling to rim protection. He’s handled this matchup well in the past by getting him to attack downhill and settle for tougher shots or turn it over.

Kyle Anderson, when he gets minutes, could also receive this treatment. However, frontcourt combinations with Reid on the court will make this approach challenging.

Switching Up Defenses Against Anthony Edwards

The Mavericks succeeded in Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series with the Thunder by getting creative after halftime with defensive approaches. They toggled between regular man defense by switching on the perimeter to deploying a one-man zone that kept Lively in the middle of the floor to prevent opportunities in the restricted area. The zone approach required players to make extra efforts on the perimeter, knowing the goal is not to have the big have to go out and do it.

While he doesn’t tend to get credit for it from observers, Doncic played a big part in this success, along with the communication and commitment of the group when handling weak-side actions. There are limitations in how Edwards manages to read the game since he’s naturally a scorer who will take chances with his athleticism, unlike Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who can get to short-range spots and shoot with precision. Dallas needs to make Edwards think before he commits to an outcome on his attacks, potentially resulting in hesitation, turnovers, or tougher shot attempts on drives.

READ MORE: Key Stats Heading Into Western Conference Finals: Mavericks vs Timberwolves

Dallas tends to avoid blitzing as much as possible to avoid putting the defense out of rotation. Given the size Minnesota must attack the glass on misses, it would be difficult to scramble and then contain on the boards. However, aside from the ability to feature Towns offensively, there isn’t a shifty threat outside of Edwards. Perhaps, at some point, the Mavericks could try this strategy.

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