Does Mavs History of Lottery Misfortune Enhance Victor Wembanyama Odds?

The Dallas Mavericks, who have sole possession of the 10th-best odds in this year’s NBA Draft Lottery, have never moved up in the order despite being a lottery team 16 times throughout franchise history.

Dalton Trigg | Apr 14, 2023

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Dallas Mavericks

With the NBA Draft Lottery just a little over one month away, the Dallas Mavericks are hoping for some good fortune that has evaded them throughout franchise history.

May 16 will mark the 17th time the Mavs have been a lottery team. In 16 previous trips, the Mavs have either stayed where they were projected to be, or they moved down at least one spot in the draft order.

The most deflating results during that span came in back-to-back years in 1993 and 1994, where Dallas had the top odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick, but fell to the No. 2 and No. 4 picks respectively.

The more times you try, though, the better your chances are of winning, right? … Right?

That's what the Mavs are hoping for after a disappointing 2022-23 season ended with a 38-44 record and no postseason appearance. If Dallas is ever going to have luck in the lottery, this would be a great year for it, as the team is limited when it comes to high-end young talent and future draft assets.

The biggest prize in the 2023 NBA Draft is 19-year-old Victor Wembanyama, who is a versatile 7-foot-3 French prospect with a wingspan near eight feet. Wembanyama is the most hyped draft prospect since LeBron James in 2003, and that's simply because no one has ever seen a player of his size do the guard-like things he does while also being a promising defender. He would address several big needs the Mavs have from the moment he steps on the court.

With the dust settled on the NBA's regular season, the Mavs have sole possession of the 10th-best odds in the lottery. This means they have a three-percent chance of being awarded the No. 1 overall pick on May 16. It also means they have a 13.9-percent chance of jumping into the top-four.

Even if Dallas doesn't find the epic lottery luck it seeks this year, the biggest number to focus on is 65.9, which is the percentage chance the Mavs have of staying at No. 10 in the draft order. They also have a 20.8-percent chance of losing the pick, as anything above No. 10 will be conveyed to the New York Knicks.

Keeping this year's pick, even if it doesn't move up, is key for Dallas. Not only is this year's draft class stacked with potential high-end talent, but having a top-10 pick could go a long way in trade discussions, as it has more perceived value this year than in a normal draft class year.

The pipe-dream of pairing Wembanyama with Luka Doncic and this offseason's "top priority" in Kyrie Irving is one that has a small chance of happening, but it's enough of a chance to keep it in the back of our minds until it's not a possibility anymore. If it happens, all of the doom-and-gloom surrounding the Mavs over the last handful of months will fly out the window.

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Published Apr 14, 2023

DALTON TRIGG

Dalton Trigg is the Editor-In-Chief for Dallas Basketball, as well as the Executive Editor overseeing Inside The Rockets, Inside The Spurs, All Knicks, and The Magic Insider. He is the founder and host for the Mavs Step Back Podcast, which is a proud part of the Blue Wire podcast network. Trigg graduated from the University of Southern Mississippi’s College of Business and Economic Development with a bachelor’s degree in entrepreneurship in 2016. After spending a few years with multiple Dallas Mavericks-related blogs, including SB Nation’s Mavs Moneyball, Trigg joined DallasBasketball.com as a staff writer in 2018 and never looked back. At the start of 2022, he was promoted to the EIC title he holds now. Through the years, Trigg has conducted a handful of high-profile one-on-one interviews to add to his resume — in both writing and podcasting. Some of his biggest interviews have been with Mavs owner Mark Cuban, Mavs GM Nico Harrison, now-retired legend Dirk Nowitzki and many other current/former players and team staffers. Many of those interviews and other articles by Trigg have been aggregated by other well-known sports media websites, such as Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and others. You can find Trigg on all major social media channels, but his most prevalent platform is on Twitter. Whether it’s posting links to his DBcom work, live-tweeting Mavs games or merely giving his opinions on things going on with Dallas and the rest of the NBA, the daily content never stops rolling. For any inquiries, please email Dalton@MavsStepBack.com.