'Live & Die By The 3': Can Luka Doncic's Mavs Stay Hot Enough to Make Run?

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most reliant teams on 3-point shooting. Is their play style too volatile to pull off a major run?

The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the most 3-point shooting-reliant teams in the NBA. It makes sense, because Luka Doncic generates a significant volume of wide-open looks given his incredible passing ability coupled with his scoring presence commanding multiple defenders often. 

During the Mavs' 121-100 win over the New York Knicks on Saturday, they experienced the peak of what happens when their perimeter shots fall at a high clip. They ended up shooting 24-61 (39.3 percent) from 3-point range, which was the most attempts in a single game in team history and was also tied for the second-most makes they've ever had. 

"I think coach said it best — when Luka does the hard part, we got to do our job to make it easier for him, and that's knocking down open shots when he collapses the defense and gets 2 guys on him," Mavs guard Tim Hardaway Jr. said after shooting 8-of-13 from deep. "... Today we did our part."

After the Mavs' win over the Knicks, Kidd described his team as being a group that "lives or dies by the three." That isn't necessarily a shocking revelation to hear, given it is made obvious by observing their play on the court. Regardless, admission by the coach is what matters. 

“I think it’s just great that everyone’s in the locker room smiling,” Kidd said. “Everybody saw the ball go in. We shared the ball, we played the right way, the ball wasn’t sticking. Again, we tried to put guys in a situation to be successful.

“We’re a team that lives or dies by the three, and today we made them. We got a lot of great looks, we knocked them down and there were a lot of rhythm shots. A lot of guys passed up maybe layups or the opportunity to shoot one to get a better one, and I thought we saw that this afternoon. A lot of beautiful basketball of passing up a good shot to get a great shot.”

Even during Hardaway's recent surge after a terrible shooting start to the season, much of the supporting cast hasn't caught their collective stride. Over the last three games, the Mavs have shot 58-151 (38.4 percent) from the perimeter. However, Hardaway has gone 19-38 (50.0 percent) and Doncic shooting 15-32 (46.9 percent) has been the driving forces. The rest of the team has shot 24-81 (29.6 percent) over that span. 

Back on Media Day, Kidd jokingly said that he doesn't know if they will be launching 40 3s per game as they did during the playoffs considering that was something they needed to do out of survival. Right now, they are averaging 40.6 3-point attempts per game, trailing only the Golden State Warriors (43.6) and Boston Celtics (41.6) in attempts. 

"Don't know if we're going try and create 40 3s like we did in the playoffs because that's what we needed to do to win," Kidd said when asked about how the offense may change this season. "Those shots will present themselves, especially with Spencer and Luka being the playmakers they are." 

The numbers become even clearer when adjusting for pace. When looking at the rate of the Mavs' shot attempts that come from behind the 3-point line, they are taking 48.6 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. It's the second-highest rate in the NBA, behind only the Warriors (48.9 percent).

The problem with the Mavs' current play style isn't that they're launching so many shots from 3-point range in a vacuum. Instead, it's more so about a probable lack of necessary shooting talent to do so and have it work for four consecutive playoff series. Dallas doesn't necessarily have sharpshooters on the wing and the starting wings from their last playoff run aren't proficient shot creators when possessions slow down. 

One of the issues the Mavs currently face is the void left by Jalen Brunson's departure. He was able to add a needed presence of being able to attack off the catch while playing off Doncic in addition to being a highly efficient spot-up shooter. He could run the offense both alongside Doncic and without him, whether needed to run pick-and-rolls or attack out of isolation, he could get it done on a consistent basis and stabilize the offense. 

There is a lot the Mavs miss by not having Brunson around and not replacing him with a reliable guard certainly doesn't help. The team had a rotation of three proficient backcourt scoring threats that can help overcome an off-shooting night by their spot-up threats by taking matters into their own hands. It raised the floor of the team significant after the Kristaps Porzingis trade, but it has yet to be restored after Brunson's departure. 

It was mentioned on Media Day that Christmas is a barometer the team wants to use to determine where they're at after their offseason changes. It's safe to say, JaVale McGee hasn't lived up to expectations in terms of on-court production. Christian Wood has yet to be fully utilized either. Also, the team swapped Facundo Campazzo for Kemba Walker and it's premature to make declarations about the move given he hasn't even debuted yet. 

It remains to be seen how Walker's knee ends up holding up. He hasn't played in an NBA game in over nine months since shutting his season down. The recent comments from Mavs general manager Nico Harrison don't offer much reason for confidence that it'll hold up either, given he described Walker's knee as "not good at all."

"It's one (knee). It's not good, it's not good at all, but he's rehabbed it and it's the best he's felt in the last two years," Harrison said during a recent appearance on 96.7 The Ticket. "We'll see how long that lasts."

The Mavs are limited in what they can do at the trade deadline due to their 2023 first-round pick being owed to the Knicks in addition to being limited in players with strong trade value. If the front office determines that making a move is necessary, they'll have to get creative in their approach. 

If Walker doesn't prove to be an answer to the Mavs' third ball handler needs, the team surely will need to get aggressive in addressing it. Bringing in unsigned guards off the street is a tough strategy to bank on being the answer, but it's the approach the team is taking for now. 

Ahead of Monday's matchup against the Phoenix Suns, the Mavs hold an 11-11 record through 22 games. They rank 10th in a competitive Western Conference despite receiving MVP-level play from Luka Doncic. Given the weight placed on getting off to a strong start, the results have been far from meeting the expectation that had been laid out for themselves. Even if they get hot from deep and go on a run soon, is that how they want to rely on needing to execute come playoff time for four straight series?

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