NBA Insider Speaks on Mavs' Josh Green Contract Extension

Mavs wing Josh Green is eligible to sign a contract extension as he will be competing with Australia at the FIBA World Cup.

Long before Josh Green competes with the Dallas Mavericks during the 2023-24 NBA season, he will be representing his native country of Australia at the FIBA Basketball World Cup, beginning in Okinawa, Japan. 

Green is coming off a career-year with the Mavs, averaging 9.1 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 60 games. He shot a career-best 53.7 percent from the floor and 4.03 percent from 3-point range. Overall, he showed the necessary potential to be an important piece after struggling to find playing time during the Mavs' run to the Western Conference Finals the season prior. 

With Green entering the final year of his rookie contract, he recently told ESPN Australia that he'd like to re-sign with the Mavs. There is an Oct. 24 deadline for him to do so, or he'd have to wait until next summer to resolve his future as a restricted free agent. 

"Honestly, I haven't really put too much thought into it," Green said of a potential extension."I've really just focused on [the national team]. Whatever happens kind of happens.

"Obviously, it's a cool feeling to be in that situation but, at the same time, I put so much work to be able to be in this position now, that you wanna continue to work," Green explained. "I hope it happens. I want to be in Dallas. I love Dallas. I love the fanbase, love the guys. To think I could be in Dallas long-term would be amazing." 

Green is set to play an important role for Australia at the World Cup as he will start over Matisse Thybulle on the wing initially. He's already been praised for his on-ball defense by Australia coach Brian Goorjian, describing Green's impact in that area as being of the caliber of Matthew Dellavedova, but "on steroids." 

During a recent podcast discussion involving ESPN NBA insider Brian Windhorst and ESPN Australia basketball writer Olgun Uluc, among the various topics of focus was the potential impact for Green's contract talks with the Mavs based on his play at the World Cup.

Windhorst views participating at the World Cup as only helping Green if he plays well, but not a negatively impactful influence if he fails to do so.  

"For a guy who they're negotiating with, I think it could only help him," Windhorst said of possible impact of Green's performance in FIBA on his contract extension outlook. 

"I think if he plays poorly, they'll just chalk it up to he hasn't played in the event before and he's on a new team, stuff like that," Windhorst explained. "If he plays well, I absolutely think it can help him because he's an important player to the Mavericks."

The Mavs did make roster changes this offseason to add talent to the supporting cast around Doncic and Irving. However, Green remains an important element to what they can achieve on the wing. As a result, there is a belief that he could hold "pretty high expectations" for his next contract when discussing a deal. 

"The Mavericks have reloaded a little bit," Windhorst said. "They got a couple of first round picks this year, but like last year, by the end of the season it was like Kyrie, Luka and then you look down the bench and there wasn't much there. Tim Hardaway Jr., I guess was their third best player, but they've been trying to trade him for a year. 

"They have another young player, Jaden Hardy, who they drafted in the second round a year ago, who is an intriguing player, sort of high talent," Windhorst explained. "Josh is the wing player who defends. This is in high demand. There are guys on the US team who fit that bill, who just got paid a ton of money. If you're Josh, you're looking at some of those contracts that got signed this summer and you've got pretty high expectations for what you can get."

Green will be operating from a position where players typically are going to be paid based on projections for what they could achieve in the future with continued development as opposed to a rigid figure based on the present. 

"Josh is in this lane where you're going to be paying him with the expectation of his improvement and that's where we always get into gray area and we see standoffs happen." Windhorst said. 

A recent case of a team waiting to give a contract extension to a wing backfiring was offered by Windhorst. The comparison made was to Cam Johnson, who received a lower offer from the Phoenix Suns and later doubled his earnings the following summer. 

"Historically, I will tell you that teams fair much, much better when they negotiate a contract extension with a player instead of waiting for him to be a free agent," Windhorst said. 

"I will give you an example with the Americans. Cam Johnson, who's an older player, played four years in college, but he's on the team USA year ago," Windhorst explained. "He was in this boat. He was negotiating his contract extension and the Phoenix Suns probably could have gotten him for around $20 million a year, maybe even slightly less — maybe even in the high teens per year.

"They offered him something. I think, four years at less than 70 million, which is obviously a lot of money, and he turned it down and he went and played, he ended up getting traded mid-season to Brooklyn, but he turned down something in the four year $65 million range," Windhorst explained further. "He ended up signing this summer for four years and $100 million. He made like over $30 million because in his fourth season, which is about the time where players tend to really find their footing, he doubled his money.

With the Mavs paying big contracts to Irving and Doncic, Windhorst highlighted the importance for them to maintain roster flexibility. Green is one of the team's most appealing trade assets, but his value could be maximized by reaching an agreement on a favorable contract extension. 

"The Mavericks are carrying some big numbers on their books with Kyrie Irving and Luka, but they frankly have very limited trade assets," Windhorst said. "They not only need to make Josh an offer that he will accept, but that makes him palatable to trade. Not because they wanna trade him, but because when you have star players in their primes, you need to have flexibility on your roster."

Based on the historic trends for player contract extension talks, Windhorst does expect an agreement to be reached, but not until close to the deadline in October. There just doesn't tend to be agreements reached in August based on the general timeline of how discussions unfold. 

"I would bet on something to get done, but I would bet that it comes down right to the buzzer in October because this is one of those where Josh will have a number, the Mavs will have a number," Windhorst said.

Windhorst explained: "I have no insight, but I'm just going to tell you, historically, a player like this, they don't like the other person's number and then they're like, 'Well, screw you, we'll see you in September.' You very rarely see extensions get done in August. Extensions get done either in July or they get done in October. So that would be my expectation of where this heads, and it would be one of those that comes down right to the end."

Green has dealt with numerous injuries ahead of the World Cup, beginning with being sidelined from the team's first few exhibition matches due to an elbow injury. He was sidelined early against France due to an ankle injury, but he is expected to play on Friday against Finland in what will be Australia's first game in Okinawa. 

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Grant Afseth is a Dallas Mavericks reporter for DallasBasketball.com and an NBA reporter for NBA Analysis Network. He previously covered the Indiana Pacers and NBA for CNHI's Kokomo Tribune and various NBA teams for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. Follow him on Twitter (@grantafseth), Facebook (@grantgafseth), and YouTube (@grantafseth).

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