Ideal Playoff Matchup for Mavs: Tired Nuggets or Time-Bomb Jazz?

Would the Denver Nuggets or the Utah Jazz be the better playoff matchup for the Dallas Mavericks? Our staff discusses this topic at length.

The NBA playoffs are right around the corner, and the Dallas Mavericks will clinch home-court advantage in the first round for the first time since 2011 if they win against the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday (or if the Utah Jazz lose to the Phoenix Suns). The Mavs have already clinched their first 50-win season since 2015 with a win over the Detroit Pistons earlier in the week.

Although Western Conference standings aren’t completely set yet, we already know that the Mavs will be facing either the Utah Jazz or Denver Nuggets in the first round. Whether the Mavs will be playing one of those teams as the third or fourth seed remains the biggest question, though.

With that in mind, we asked our roundtable participants: Is Utah or Denver the better playoff matchup for Dallas? Should the Mavs be angling to play one or the other? Does it really matter who they play in the first round this time around given Luka Doncic’s current level of play?

Mike Fisher: My optimal scenario involves the Jazz, and not necessarily because they are inferior to Denver or easier to beat than Denver. Give me Mavs vs. Jazz - a winnable series, in theory. Then give me a Jazz locker room that already features some frazzled nerves in conflict.

Then give me a Utah program that decides it must make changes.

Then give me Dallas, picking at the carcass of the defeated, and stealing Rudy Gobert from Utah.

Art Garcia: Obviously, both the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets are quality teams that can win a first-round series. When looking for preferences, I tend to lean to the team that's been in the most disarray. The Jazz aren't coming into the playoffs hot. This is a team that came into the season with sights on winning the West. A recent five-game losing streak and several blown big leads have cast a dark cloud over the franchise. Is this the last year for Quinn Snyder as coach? Is Rudy Gobert on the way out, too?

But look at the roster, especially Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Gobert, and consider how tough it is to play in Salt Lake City. That muddies the waters when considering the best matchup for the Mavericks. The Jazz could rally, making one last run together before the whole thing blows up.

The Nuggets just don't seem right. Jamal Murray has been out all year. Michael Porter Jr. is always dealing with some ailment. Nikola Jokic can do it all, but is it too much? The reigning MVP has so much on his plate every night that it could start to wear on him. Over the course of a potential seven-game series, I tend to think Jason Kidd can devise a defense to limit The Joker enough for the Mavs to prevail.

Give me Denver.

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The Mavs are one win away from clinching home-court advantage in the first round.

Doncic throws a lob over Mitchell in a Mavs win over Jazz.

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On Thursday, Nikola Jokic became the only player in NBA history to record 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 500 assists in a single season.

Dalton Trigg: I flip-flop on this a lot, because on one hand, the Jazz seem to be imploding as a team - although they have looked a little bit better as of late against shorthanded opponents. Utah has blown many fourth-quarter leads this season, and Donovan Mitchell doesn’t seem to get the ball to Rudy Gobert as much as he should, especially when Gobert has a smaller defender on him. Those two have had chemistry issues in the past, and with reports of the Mavs having interest in a potential Gobert trade this summer, a lot of people are thinking this is a ticking time bomb situation for the Jazz.

On the other hand, though, as good as reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is, the Denver Nuggets are still a lot more shorthanded than the Jazz are as a team, especially since it doesn’t look like Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. will return this season. The Mavs guards, led by Luka Doncic, should feast in a series with Denver, and they have enough long, athletic defenders to make Jokic uncomfortable at the very least. As many injuries as the Nuggets have dealt with this season, and as big of a load as Jokic has had to crash, I just feel like this Denver team is going to be fatigued in the postseason.

Overall, though, I’m really just not sure it matters too much who the Mavs play. I know many people are in a “I won’t believe the Mavs are this good until they win a series” mindset, and that’s understandable. But I think this is the year the Mavs make it out of the first round no matter who they play, because guess what? They won’t be playing a Los Angeles Clippers team led by Kawhi Leonard for once… and they also have a healthy and hungry Luka Doncic.

If Leonard and Paul George couldn’t stop Doncic, what player on the Jazz or Nuggets has a chance of doing so?

Matt Galatzan: If I’m the Mavs I don't complain about facing either one. Why? Because it’s not the Clippers again, and it’s not NBA-leading Phoenix Suns.

If I have to pick one though, I’ll go with the Nuggets. If they had Jamal Murray, my choice might be different. But without Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in the lineup, I think Denver will have a very difficult time keeping up on the offensive end even if they do have the center version of Doncic on their roster.

Also, despite his struggles at the end of this regular season, playoff Donovan Mitchell still scares me.

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Jokic, Doncic and Mitchell.

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Rudy Gobert was recently linked to the Mavs in offseason trade rumors.

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The Mavs finished the season series with the Jazz tied at 2-2.

Kirk Henderson: Angling to play anyone is a dangerous business for a team like this one. The Mavericks are outstanding, but they also perform like a well-oiled machine because the pieces fit just right. Remove one, and things get funky.

For the longest time I wanted Dallas to play anyone but the Jazz. On paper, the Jazz are a match up problem. In real life, the Jazz have become a team on the brink. Their coach seems likely to leave and their two superstars seem to misunderstand the axiom, "A rising tide lifts all boats.” They work well together but don't get that each benefits from the other's abilities. So I am tilting towards the Jazz.

Jokic is leading a zombified Nuggets team, and Dallas is better than them at everything, but Jokic is also the best player between the two teams (do not stab me, he's going to win his second straight MVP!), so that's a wildcard I would avoid if I could.

But it ultimately doesn't matter. Having Doncic gives me supreme confidence in the face of terrible odds. And if the odds are in the favor of Dallas? Well, count me in.

Grant Afseth: With how effective Luka Doncic is at attacking bigs out in space and in drop coverage, picking between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz doesn’t seem to be the main issue. With Doncic, there’s going to be a very good chance of Dallas winning either series.

Avoiding the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semi-Finals seems to be the top problem to solve, and doing so requires the Mavs ending up with the third seed. If made to pick, avoiding the team with the MVP candidate in the first round would likely be the preferred outcome since much of a playoff series is dictated by the superstars.