NBA MVP Picks: Executive Explains Why Mavs’ Luka Doncic Will Win

In a recent poll of NBA coaches, scouts, and executives, Luka Doncic was among the top picks to win the 2023 MVP.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Luka Doncic has become a common Vegas preseason favorite for MVP betting odds over the last few years. He's been among finalists in recent years but hasn't quite yet emerged as an MVP winner. Will that change in 2022-23 for the Dallas Mavericks superstar?

With the media holding a strong influence on the MVP winner, narratives tend to play an important role. Who doesn't like a good story? That can be negative for a player like Doncic when the narrative is: "He didn't even show up to training camp in shape!" 

The Mavericks got off to a slow start last season with plenty of factors in play. They were adjusting to a coaching change, the team was still attempting to integrate Kristaps Porzingis, and much of the top catch-and-shoot threats were in a slump. 

To make matters worse, Doncic was placed in the NBA health & safety protocol like much of the league in December. He was also dealing with a sprained ankle and made it a focus to get into top shape before his return to the lineup. All while that happened, the Mavericks held a 16-18 record after a 95-94 loss to the Sacramento Kings on Dec. 29. 

The narrative of Doncic being out of shape was the simplest summary to explain the Mavericks' losing record after Christmas Day despite his averages of 25.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in his 21 appearances in that stretch. The team held a 12-9 record during this period and were 6-9 when he was sidelined. 

It wasn't until mid-January until Doncic found his MVP form. Over his final 36 games, he averaged 31.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 8.7 assists while posting a 25-11 record. It played an integral role in a late-season push to earn his third consecutive All-NBA First-Team nomination. At the same time, playing a quicker, small ball lineup that swarmed defensively brought dynamic results. 

In an ESPN poll involving 15 NBA coaches, scouts, and executives, one of the questions involved picking who will win the 2023 MVP award. Giannis Antetokounmpo led with five votes while Luka Doncic (four) and Joel Embiid (four) were the only other players to receive multiple votes. 

A Western Conference executive who chose Doncic as his MVP pick explained how the Mavericks are likely to win over 50 games with his production being massive.

"This is as wide open of a field as you could possibly have, because Giannis and Curry are back in the equation," said a Western Conference executive.

"But I'll take Luka. His numbers will be super high, [Christian] Wood will help, they're going to win 50-plus games ... losing Jalen Brunson stinks [but] whatever [Doncic's] usage was last year, which was already off the charts, it will only boost his chances."

While it may not be something enjoyed by some, the narrative surrounding Doncic and the Mavericks is important for his candidacy. It should only help that he is coming off a Western Conference Finals run with great production. 

After losing Jalen Brunson in free agency, the expectation will be that Doncic has to carry this Mavericks team to wins. If the organization can reach the 50-win mark and finish among the top four in the Western Conference standings, his chances are strong to be named the MVP. 

Doncic should remain in great shape entering training camp when considering he's still participating in international play with Slovenia. His schedule for EuroBasket 2022 is just set to begin then it won't be long before the Mavericks are preparing for the 2022-23 season.

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You can follow Grant Afseth on Twitter at @GrantAfseth.

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