Mavs Exceeding Expectations as NBA Playoff Race Tightens

The Dallas Mavericks have exceeded expectations according to preseason betting odds. DallasBasketball.com explains how and why.

Between the much-improved defense and the jolt in performance following the trade of Kristaps Porzingis, the Dallas Mavericks are in the midst of stomping Las Vegas' preseason calculations. 

Considering the coaching hire of Jason Kidd, who had a lot to prove, player acquisitions that didn’t really move the needle, and a new-to-the-league general manager, it's fathomable to see why people thought the Mavs would take a step back in the standings.

Relayed in the graph below, the Mavs are aligned with notable teams like the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics, who have also exceeded preseason expectations.

Current Win% vs. Preseason Expectations. What Jumps Out? pic.twitter.com/oevQHfH1zd

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) March 10, 2022

How exactly have the Mavs silenced the critics despite the aforementioned causes of concern? First of all, Dallas’ much-improved, elite defense takes prominence in the discourse. 

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Powell defending Gobert

Chriss block

Doncic defends rim

Although currently sixth in the league in defensive rating, the Mavs were as good as fourth for the calendar year. For context, the Mavs’ 2011 championship team ranked eighth in the NBA. Not only has the defense been great, but the Mavs excelling in that department this year while lacking a true defensive anchor has made the feat even more impressive.

Dallas’ defensive success mainly stems from overall team effort. Players close out on shooters with enthusiasm and take charges at a successful rate. What Jalen Brunson lacks in size, he makes up for with smart positioning and timing.

Luka Doncic’s individual improvement on defense has been a huge lift for his team. Although's he's not necessarily an elite defender, Doncic's effort and utilization of his body has put Dallas in a favorable position in the standings. 

Aside from defense, the addition of Spencer Dinwiddie has added another wrinkle to an offense that was desperate for playmaking and ball-handling off the bench. While Porzingis added length for rim protection, the offense suffered at times when he needed to be force-fed. 

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Dinwiddie and Doncic

Brunson drives on Bucks

© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Dinwiddie layup

While Brunson's season deserves praise, it's clear the young guard still has issues against certain matchups due to his size, whereas Dinwiddie's height and overall length help alleviate those concerns. Brunson is averaging 16 points, four rebounds and five assists per game on 50-37-82 shooting percentage splits this season, while Dinwiddie has averaged 18 points, two rebounds and four assists per game on 53-45-71 shooting splits since being traded to Dallas (nine games).

With Kidd mixing up the guard play between the superstar abilities of Doncic, Brunson's head-down approach to the basket, and Dinwiddie's performances that prove he belongs, the Mavs offense is better off than it was when the season started.

Ultimately, the way the Mavs perform in the postseason — which starts in a little over a month from now — means significantly more than how they’ve played in the regular season. That said, though, one can't completely disregard the positives that have surfaced in a pleasantly surprising season.

I guess the house doesn't always win.