Luka Doncic Usage Rate: Mavs Need Better Players & More Christian Wood
The Dallas Mavericks gave Luka Doncic a night off to rest on Wednesday for what was the second night of a back-to-back. While the Mavs' lack of execution without him available to play wasn't necessary to display the massive workload he's shouldering this season, it was a major showcase of why he does.
Doncic's backcourt partner, Spencer Dinwiddie, struggled to get much going in the scoring department despite facing the NBA's worst team — the Houston Rockets. He finished with nine points while shooting 3-18 from the floor and 1-9 from 3-point range. Overall, the Mavs' starting lineup finished with just 27 points.
Reggie Bullock produced his third scoreless performance of the season despite playing 33 minutes. He's the only player in the NBA to fail to score despite playing at least 20 minutes of action. Josh Green finished with just four points, and all came from the free throw line. Dorian Finney-Smith shot 3-11 from the floor and 1-8 from deep for seven points. Lastly, Dwight Powell totaled seven points. The end result was a combined 8-40 shooting from the floor and 2-24 from 3-point range.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (28) outscored the Mavs' starters after taking 26 shots and Christian Wood (26) wasn't far off himself. The unit as a whole got up 102 shots total with 55 of them coming from beyond the arc. It exposed a major inability for the supporting cast to get to the rim and consistently create positive plays as a collective with limitations in the shot creation department.
Before discussing whether Doncic wants to play with a massive usage rate, it's important to dive into why he has one in the first place. The Mavs must field a versatile supporting cast that checks some necessary boxes. Right now, there are significant limitations with the personnel they have around the superstar that are not meeting the mark.
Talent Deficit on the Wing
In the 2022 Western Conference Finals, the Mavs encountered an issue with the Golden State Warriors having the necessary personnel to overload the strong side when a non-shooting big was on the floor while Draymond Green often guarded the No. 2 option in Jalen Brunson. It cranked up the pressure for Doncic to create in the half-court without getting much help. Having a reliable third option with size on the wing could have gone a long way in countering those circumstances.
A more common result for the Mavs when facing the Warriors' defense featured possessions that stalled out with wings like Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith finding themselves having the ball late in the shot clock more frequently. Both players are out of their element.in those situations when faced with the need to create a positive play off the dribble, whether it be getting to the rim, an off-the-dribble jumper, or drawing help and kicking it out to an open teammate.
Given the Mavs achieved their greatest playoff success when spacing out with a stretch-five, it's increasingly up to the perimeter talent to get the job done. It comes down to a need for more talented wing players that can make tough plays offensively, but also are trusted to handle necessary responsibilities on defense.
Given the Mavs achieved their greatest playoff success when spacing out with a stretch-five, it's increasingly up to the perimeter talent to get the job done. It comes down to a need for more talented wing players that can make tougher plays offensively while still being players that are trusted to handle necessary defensive responsibilities. Having just 3-and-D options isn't the solution to realizing championship aspirations.
There already are clear limitations with what Bullock and Finney-Smith have managed to offer offensively this season. When teams start playing out of their base defense as games get closer to the end of the first half and out of halftime, the Mavs tend to become increasingly reliant on their wings converting on catch-and-shoot attempts. So far, those looks haven't dropped at a high enough rate and the reaction tends to be, "We got the looks we wanted, they just didn't fall."
The problem the Mavs face is they essentially end up having to live and die by the 3-point shooting of spot-up threats that aren't actually even elite catch-and-shoot players, but also are limited beyond that area. Teams start to get more aggressive with turning Doncic into a passer as opposed to a scorer and the ball pops around the offense, often requiring a shooter to convert because otherwise, they lack other options in their game. Why "get by" with Doncic's excellence and subpar talent when there is another option: get better players.
Bullock is a career 38.2 percent 3-point shooter on 4.2 attempts per game and finished shooting 36.0 percent from deep last season. He's a good shooter, that's evident. The main issue with his impact is that he tends to begin the early portion of his seasons in a shooting slump and lacks the skill-set to make up for it. So far, he's shooting 29.2 percent from 3-point range with 83.3 percent of his shot attempts coming from beyond the arc.
Finney-Smith has been more effective than Bullock from 3-point range as he's converting at a 34.2 percent clip. However, while he's come close on a few occasions, he's never finished a season shooting at or above 40 percent despite often getting some of the easiest looks a spot-up shooter can ask for due to playing alongside Doncic.
Again, when shots are falling for Bullock as they were in the fourth quarter of the Mavs' 103-101 win over the LA Clippers when he had four makes, the outside world and press room is full of haters that just need to be more patient since those are shots that are going to fall later in the season. First of all, winning games is important before the month of January. Secondly, there's more to consider.
The problem with the "wait for Bullock to start hitting 3s" plan is that the Mavs need more offensive impact from their wings beyond open catch-and-shoot attempts anyway. That's not to diminish his value of what he provides. He does provide a helpful impact as a screener for Doncic and makes the defense pay on the pick-and-pop if there is too much attention being placed on Doncic for just long enough. That was helpful in the playoffs, as was his shooting on spot-up looks. However, there's still more that's needed.
Bullock has yet to score a single point on a drive this season and is the only player to do so despite playing 400 minutes this season in addition to having two points from pull-up jumpers. The biggest he threat he poses to a defense to finish at the rim is when he's leaking out in transition and gets behind the defense. He's simply not a threat to create and that means the pressure is on others to create good looks for him. If he's not knocking them down, there aren't alternatives.
When Bullock records a spot-up possession that doesn't end in a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer, the results are rough, as one might expect. He isn't much of a threat to use a shot fake and reload behind the 3-point line. He isn't going to be a reliable option to take a one or two dribble pull-up inside the 3-point line. And, he surely isn't going to attack the basket and finish when a help rotation is made and there's pressure at the rim. When teams trap Doncic to get the ball out of his hands, the rest of the unit has to be able to make a play.
Finney-Smith has shown more of an ability to attack off the catch than Bullock, but is still limited in that regard. He has recorded a total of 42 drives this season, which is the most on the team outside of Doncic (292), Dinwiddie (150), and Christian Wood (48). On those drives, he's scored 14 points and is shooting 5-11 from the floor, 3-4 on free throws, and has as many assists (four) as turnovers. The results are underwhelming, but again, it's at least something.
However, Finney-Smith has yet to score using a pull-up jumper this season. Like Bullock, it's just not in his game. Both of the Mavs' starting wings are two of the three non-bigs in the NBA that have played at least 400 minutes to score two points or fewer on pull-up jumpers. The other? Draymond Green.
When Finney-Smith drives and a manages to make a play, it requires favorable conditions. Either with the help of a seal from his big man in the paint or a playmaker dishing a well-timed pass that leaves him with a step advantage to get by a defender making a closeout. Chances are that he isn't going to execute a tough finish, but isn't afraid of contact to draw a foul.
Finney-Smith has struggled to make a play when the defense isn't out of rotation and manages to make a quality closeout on him. He doesn't have a counter to turn to in his game, requiring him to put up junk when the situation calls for him to take a shot attempt. A more talented wing would be able to still salvage the play to make something happen with a greater probability of success.
Notice, the situations that have been mentioned as not being strengths for neither Bullock nor Finney-Smith go beyond being simple off the catch attacks. That's how low the bar is for wing creation in the half-court outside — adding a heavy burden on the backcourt to generate a lot of favorable plays for them. If either wing was to run a ball screen or having an action ran for them, chances are, the outcome wouldn't be positive, and at the core of the usage "problem."
Should Josh Green Get a Chance?
There are intriguing qualities that Josh Green brings as a complementary talent. He has a talent for acrobatic finishes around the rim in addition to being capable of hanging in the air before finding the open man when help comes. He's also one hell of a transition threat with his athleticism and high motor.
Green is clearly not a pull-up shooting threat and there is currently an ongoing process in respect to his catch-and-shoot ability. For him to open up his drives off the catch more, the defense has to respect his shooting more. For that to happen, he needs to be able to convert on those looks even when there is a hard enough closeout made to actually contest.
Right now, Green is shooting 11-23 (47.8 percent) on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers early this season. While the degree of difficulty isn't going to be the same compared to established shooters, Green is still shooting substantially more efficiently than Finney-Smith, Hardaway, Bullock, and Kleber.
One play that stands out for Green occurred on Nov. 6 in the Mavs' win over the Nets. He had space to shoot on the initial catch with Royce O'Neale sagging off of him instead of making an aggressive closeout. Green turned the shot down and passed it up, but Dinwiddie made sure to work the ball back to him to make him shoot the ball, which resulted in a make. He has since missed all of his four guarded catch-and-shoot attempts since this play.
Green didn't hesitate when he was deployed in a pick-and-pop sequence with Doncic later in the game. The thought process behind that described to me when asked was along the lines of knowing he had to take the shot against the smaller, less experienced defender in Cam Thomas being involved in the action. It was a great finishing touch to a season-best performance with 16 points.
The Mavs need Green to let it fly aggressively when the chances come to him within the flow of the game. He's been more diligent about not turning down shots as he did against the Nets above. Again, the results just haven't been there just yet. That's a low sample size so it's not a declarative statement on what's in store for him going forward. Regardless, he has to be aggressive and efficient on these attempts.
Green has become more willing to take those contested shots very recently, but the results haven't been there. It's especially important when considering teams may start closing out on him more aggressively if his open looks continue to convert. Ultimately, to cleanly replace Bullock in the starting lineup, he'd need to command respect when setting ball screens and back-screening in Stack pick-and-roll plays.
Whether playing through potential short-term shortcomings from Green during an adjustment period is worthwhile or not is certainly up to the Mavs' coaching staff to decide. Their stance on the matter appears to be 'no' based on how Bullock continues to start through a shooting slump. If it was to work out in terms of shooting, the added versatility would help.
Only One Reliable Option to Watch Operate
Another issue the Mavs face is the starting center position. The team signed JaVale McGee in the offseason to fill this role, seemingly with the idea that he can raise the floor of their team by being a pick-and-roll lob guy against base defenses while offering some rim protection. The reality has been that he's a liability on both ends and probably shouldn't even receive minutes.
The Mavs have reverted back to Dwight Powell, who does an admirable job in the hustle department but comes with limitations on both ends. His quickness was instrumental in the playoffs since he could close to the level of ball screens to take away the gap for players like Donovan Mitchell, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker to comfortably operate as they had done in the regular season, but again, he doesn't come without limitations.
An issue the Mavs tend to encounter with deploying Powell is that when teams take away the advantages of having him be a rim roller by switching, he often ends up filling to the dunker's spot — enabling the defense to overload the strong-side against Doncic while being better equipped to get out on spot-up shooters. This became an issue in the playoffs as well, which is why the Mavs' half-court offense improved when Kleber checked into games to offer better floor spacing and make defenses pick their poison.
The current options for the Mavs seemingly come down to weighing the pros and cons of starting Christian Wood. He brings a combination of reliable spot-up shooting and can space out when needed, but is also a potent threat as a rim roller and mismatch hunter with his interior scoring ability. He also brings intriguing elements such as being a threat to attack off the catch in the half-court, has shown short-roll playmaking ability, and can do things like grab a rebound and take it coast-to-coast. He's even capable of taking and making step-back 3s.
"He's an amazing player," Doncic said of Wood. "I told him last game we gotta use him more, and that's on me. I think we used him a lot more in this game (against the Jazz). He shows what he can do. He was amazing today, and we just gotta feed him the ball more."
Since it's not easy to quickly acquire wing players that are positive defenders with the ability to convert catch-and-shoot looks at a high clip, get to the rim, and be shot creators, could Wood be a reliable release valve next to Doncic? Applying greater rim pressure at the center position would also open up the 3-and-D options they have on the wing. So, if not, why?
The only reliable self-creation option the Mavs have on their depth chart outside of Doncic and Dinwiddie is Christian Wood. The messaging has been that Wood is necessary to have for the bench unit for depth purposes. On the surface, winning non-Luka minutes is important and has been an issue. However, Wood seems needed with the starters, too. It sounds like a talent deficit in the depth chart that needs addressing if a hole is left by starting Wood.
When teams deploy a more traditional defensive approach against Doncic and Wood in the two-man game, it doesn't take long for Doncic to manipulate the big to create a lob to Wood. The athleticism and 7-foot-3 wingspan that Wood offers is quickly on display and make him a dynamic lob threat.
There is a significant amount of pressure applied to the defense when Wood is deployed in a Stack pick-and-roll play. If the defense switches the initial ball screen, they get placed at a disadvantage with Wood rolling to the paint with undersized defenders having to make a split second decision about making a potential switch that neither defender probably wants to make.
There is already a synergy shared between Doncic and Wood as a pick-and-roll tandem. There's no better example than when the duo broke the Portland Trail Blazers' attempt to deploy a zone scheme by connecting on the roll for three made finishes all in the same short stint late in the first quarter. In fact, Dallas made it look too easy, so the Blazers went back to the drawing board.
If both ball screen defenders stay committed to Doncic, he can simply make a pass to Wood on the pop to make the most of the big man's shooting ability. The Mavs experienced a lot of success with Kristaps Porzingis as a pick-and-pop threat for Doncic in similar ways. However, Wood brings more options.
Doncic has already shown trust in Wood's ability to punish smaller defenders in the paint by dumping the ball to him and allowing him go to work. Whether there is a switch that occurs during a pick-and-roll sequence, or Wood is deployed in an off-ball screening action, he can make the defense pay. It's something the last star frontcourt talent in Dallas was unable to do.
With teams potentially trapping Doncic more often in ball screen coverage instead of playing in a drop or soft switching, it's essential to have a short-roll threat that commands the respect of the defense. It's even more so the case on a team with limited spot-up shooters as off-ball options. Against the Phoenix Suns, Wood drew a low-man rotation and make a spray-out pass leading to a clean catch-and-shoot 3-pointer in the corner.
When the Mavs needed a tough bail-out shot from Doncic in their narrow win over the Clippers on Tuesday, the shot was the result of a discombobulated possession where Powell got it on a short-roll and the wings didn't have a clean look on the catch. Had the shot Doncic put up missed, there is a genuine chance the Mavs lose that game.
The priority should be to lean into Doncic's strengths offensively as much as possible since it'll be challenging as it is for the opposition to rival it. If Doncic and Wood can hunt mismatches to the point where defenses second guess whether they should be switching so often, it would be a win for the Mavs. The same would be the case if Wood can counter Doncic getting trapped by being a short-roll threat both as a scorer and passer. Wood has the skills to be a great counter to different schemes defenses tend to deploy.
Playing Christian Wood more isn't a fix-all for the Mavs, as they'll likely need to make a trade or two to get Doncic the sufficient help he needs, but Kidd needs to make sure he's utilizing his second-best player more going forward. Any help is welcomed help for Doncic.
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