Mavs Margin Math: How 72-Game NBA Season Destroys 'Patience'

Dallas Mavs Margin Math: What 72-Game NBA Season Does To Coach Rick Carlisle's 'Patience' And 'Currency Of Time'

DALLAS - When it comes to making the NBA Playoffs, the math is a little bit different for the Dallas Mavericks and the rest of the league’s teams in 2020-21.

With a 72-game schedule — and the league’s ‘play-in’ format for the final two seeds in each conference — the NBA is trying to partially recreate the formula that created some excitement during the pre-playoff weeks in the Orlando bubble this past summer.

The Mavericks, now 1-2 after their history-making win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday, would rather not be part of that ‘play-in’ format. But to do that the Mavs have to be among the Top 6 seeds in the Western Conference come playoff time. That means improving on last year’s No. 7 seed.

And that means doing a little math.

When it comes to seasons that were shortened from the start of the season, the Mavs have been a part of two — 1998-99 and 2011-12. Both seasons were lockout-shortened. The 1998-99 season was just 50 games and the Mavs went 19-31 to miss the playoffs. That was the rookie season of some guy name Dirk Nowitzki.

The 2011-12 season, of course, was the season AFTER Nowitzki led the Mavs to their only NBA crown. That 66-game season saw the Mavs finish 36-30 and reach the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Again, that’s what the Mavs want to avoid in this 72-game season.

In a shortened season, the margin for error, thanks to the shorter duration of the season, is a natural consideration. Every loss gets a bit more magnified. But a 72-game season isn’t necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison with a 66-game or a 50-game season. But the win-loss percentage needed to make the playoffs is, historically, consistent.

In 1998-99, when the San Antonio Spurs won the title, here were the minimum wins needed to reach the postseason:

Western Conference: 25 wins (.500 winning percentage)

Eastern Conference: 27 wins (.540 winning percentage)

In 2011-12, when the Miami Heat won the title, here were the minimum wins needed to reach the postseason:

Western Conference: 36 wins (.545 winning percentage)

Eastern Conference: 35 wins (.530 winning percentage)

Apply that to this 72-game season and the minimums needed to be the No. 8 seed in either conference are 36-39 wins (.500 to 541 winning percentage).

Now, this is not a normal season for No. 7 and No. 8 seeds, thanks to the ‘play-in’ games. If you’re the Mavs and you don’t want to mess with that (and who wants to risk that, right?), what do those two previous shortened seasons tell us about getting into that No. 6 seed?

It tells us the margin to avoid the ‘play-in,’ potentially, could be VERY small.

In 1998-99, here were the wins/percentages for the No. 6 seeds:

Western Conference: 27 wins (.540 winning percentage)

Eastern Conference: 28 wins (.560 winning percentage)

In 2011-12, here were the wins/percentages for the No. 6 seeds:

Western Conference: 38 wins (.576 winning percentage)

Eastern Conference: 37 wins (.561 winning percentage)

The statistical difference could be as little as one or two wins for the Mavs to avoid having to deal with the ‘play-in’ tournament. In that ‘play-in’ tournament, anything can happen.

Anything is something the Mavs don’t want a part of this season, not if they want to take another step toward being a serious Western Conference contender.

That’s why the historic win over the Clippers on Sunday helped, and the season-opening loss to the Phoenix Suns hurt. And why every game counts, especially early this season - including tonight in the Charlotte visit to the AAC - when the Mavs don’t know what the second half of their schedule looks like. 

Maybe this is why Mavs coach Rick Carlisle told our Mike Fisher this week in an exclusive interview on 105.3 The Fan that Dallas can't fall into the trap of being too "patient.'' 

Rick said over the weekend that "the most important currency we have is time.''

Meaning ... don't waste it.