Mavs Offseason Overview: From Kyrie Irving's Future to NBA Draft Lottery, 3 Big Questions
DALLAS — After finishing with a 38-44 record, the Dallas Mavericks went from achieving a Western Conference Finals appearance the year before to failing to qualify for the play-in tournament. There aren't many teams facing as much pressure to do more with less than the Mavs when it comes to realistic roster moves that can be made.
The Mavs' uninspiring results transpired despite Luka Doncic receiving yet another All-NBA First-Team campaign. They also became the only team to have two All-Star starters following the trade addition of Kyrie Irving. Now, the Mavs much be urgent to not only retain Irving — who is set to go into unrestricted free agency at the end of June — but to also address roster concerns sufficiently in hopes of keeping Doncic from making a future trade demand.
Before the action of the offseason gets underway next week, we look at three big questions the Mavs face.
What Will Happen at the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery?
Much of the Mavs' ability to make moves to bolster the supporting cast around Doncic will depend on the results of the NBA Draft Lottery. With the 10th-best odds for the No. 1 overall pick, Dallas has a 3.0 percent chance of gaining the selection. If it were to happen, it would be the fifth least-likely lottery outcome ever.
Regarding possible outcomes, the structure of lottery odds would enable the Mavs to either move up into the top four, stay at 10th overall in the order, or fall out of the top 10 — conveying the pick to the New York Knicks.
From a probability standpoint, the Mavs face a 65.9 percent chance of remaining at the 10th pick, but there is a 20.2 percent chance of losing their first-round pick to the Knicks. The odds of their pick ending up in the top four of the order is a combined 13.9 percent. Dallas faces a 3.3 percent chance of landing the 2nd pick, 3.6 percent chance of gaining the 3rd pick, and 4.0 percent odds of netting the 4th pick.
The outcome of the lottery will have implications on what the Mavs can trade this offseason. If they retain their pick, the only future first-round pick they are eligible to outright trade (excludes swaps) would be their 2027 pick. If the Mavs' pick falls out of the top 10 and conveys to the Knicks, they would be eligible to trade their first-round picks for 2025 and 2027.
If the Mavs end up picking at 10th overall, the current outlook is that trading the selection is the most likely outcome. The team is in win-now mode and likely would find themselves seeking established talent to pair with Doncic and Irving. Specifically, they could use more talent on the wing and a long-term center option.
"I think the two work together," Mavs general manager Nico Harrison said. "I think Luka and Kai work together. ... I really think it's the players around them ... kind of knowing their role with having those two guys out on the floor at the same time. I think that's the thing that we need to work on."
Given that it would require a lucky outcome to move into the top four, there isn't much need to construct too many hypothetical draft plans for the Mavs until it we know where they land. Regardless, being in a position to add a dynamic prospect on a rookie deal could be enticing. The potential trade options would became all the more favorable, too.
There are a few major subplots that would transpire from the Mavs achieving the unlikely outcome of landing the first pick. How ironic would it be that the team that was fined $750,000 for sitting key players over their final two games becomes the same team that lands Victor Wembenyama? However, they may be overdue to finally move up in the lottery after historically being 0-16 in doing so.
How Can the Mavs Fix a Broken Defense?
It's a must for the Mavs to become a more capable team on defense and in rebounding. The team sorely underachieved in both areas, but it only worsened after including Dorian Finney-Smith in the trade to acquire Irving. The assets available to the Mavs to bolster the roster in these areas are limited, but will need to be utilized.
"I think for us going into the offseason, the two biggest things that we need to work on is defense and rebounding," Harrison said. "That's going to be addressed."
The Mavs lack impactful enough options on the wing to contain dribble penetration, while also lacking a rim protector. For a team that often favored using a style that featured running shooters off the line followed by making extra efforts with subsequent rotations, the end result is essentially funneling into the paint without the means to win.
For the Mavs to raise the floor of their defense and make just about any defensive style more viable, they will need to acquire a rim protector. JaVale McGee was thought of as being a potential fix — commanding most of the team's taxpayer mid-level exception last summer. He quickly proved incapable and went from being an opening night starter, to being out of the rotation. Dallas must get it right this time.
“We need some rim protection. That’s one thing that we don’t have a lot of on our team. I think that’s the easiest thing to say,” Harrison said of the Mavs' needs last offseason.
There was too much emphasis placed on Maxi Kleber's potential impact after returning to the lineup following a torn hamstring. Understandably, he didn't have the same presence when trying to handle switching assignments, while also not generally having the tools to be a true answer as a defensive anchor at the five. No center the Mavs deployed proved to be the answer in this regard, either.
Another element to consider regarding the Mavs' outlook to improve defensively involves the potential for internal growth. Josh Green, 22, still has to work through his foul trouble concerns, become sharper as an off-ball defender, and grow into being more of an on-ball stopper. If he can show growth in each of those areas, it would substantially help the unit overall.
Finney-Smith is no longer present to be the impactful point-of-attack defender on top assignments, serve as the team's best low-man, and slide over to the small ball center position. While the defense had already regressed before trading him, he meant a lot to the integrity of the group through his unmatched versatility. The Mavs must find a way to fill that void this offseason.
Reggie Bullock, who already had regressed in dribble containment, was tasked with spending more time at the four after Finney-Smith's departure. He does not have the physical tools nor the instincts to provide high-level production making weak-side low-man rotations. He was just one of the many players facing a size disadvantage at their base matchup, with that often being the case three through five in the lineup.
The Mavs resorted to deploying bigger lineup frontcourt combinations after the All-Star break, but nothing ultimately worked. The team simply didn't have an identify to lean on that could be executed nearly well enough on a consistent basis. Can they manage to establish one with personnel changes?
Finding capable wing talents is difficult in the NBA since most teams actively need to find more. There are few teams that need to find more options that stand around 6-foot-8 with athleticism and general capabilities as an off-ball threat offensively coupled with talent as a defender.
What Will Kyrie Irving Do This Summer?
As is the case with any NBA roster, the foundation of any contender requires a balance of starpower mixed with effective complementary talents. For as great as Luka Doncic is, there is a need for more firepower next to him to ultimately manage to realize the goal of winning an NBA title.
Jalen Brunson had made major strides towards developing into being that type of a co-star. He has fully proven himself in that regard by leading the New York Knicks to the Eastern Conference semifinals. Brunson has taken his game to a new level in his last two performances, averaging 35.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 9.0 assists.
After losing Brunson for nothing in return, the Mavs spent much of the season facing a need to add another star to pair with Doncic. With a limited set of assets, it would require a truly opportunistic chance to present itself for Dallas to acquire such a talent, especially before the midseason deadline. With Kyrie Irving's contract talks with the Brooklyn Nets reaching a breaking point, that chance was created.
Irving produced dynamic results for the Mavs in the 20 games he played. With averages of 26.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, it was apparent he can produce next to Doncic, or step up as the solo-star on nights that Doncic is unavailable to play. The potential is clear, but Dallas must retain Irving's services in free agency.
When both Doncic and Irving played together, the Mavs achieved just a 5-11 record in 16 games played. In the 444 minutes they shared the floor, Dallas achieved a 119.2 offensive rating and a 115.0 defensive rating, resulting in a 4.2 net rating. A lack of defensive execution and cohesion in the clutch-time offense proved problematic.
Going forward, a full training camp and regular share of games to work through the chemistry building process would do Doncic and Irving a lot of good. That point was frequently brought up by Irving throughout the stretch-run of the regular season as they worked through the "ugly" stuff that most teams work through at the start of the season, but instead they are experiencing it in must-win games.
"We weren't playing very well pretty much all year," Harrison said. "We've been consistently inconsistent. I didn't know if this would be like a magic pill. I don't think I had like any visions of that, but I figured it couldn't be worse than what it was. And also, I also looked at it as a long-term play, not a short-term play. Getting this trade wasn't for the three months."
In terms of retaining Irving, a max contract for Irving to re-sign with the Mavs would be a five-year, $272.9 million. If he was to depart to sign with a different team, the most he could sign for is a four-year, $198.5 million deal.
"I think the things that he [Irving] said along the way about how he feels here, how he feels appreciated, how he feels accepted and allowed to be himself -- those are the things that he said kind of consistently," Harrison said of Irving. "That's what gives me the optimism that he wants to be here."
The Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns are two teams that have been linked to Irving as possible future logical landing spots, even shortly after him being traded to the Mavs. Since that point, the Lakers have reached a level of success with a cast of players around LeBron James and Anthony Davis that simply are too important to move on from in on order to make room for Irving.
As for the Suns, the team is coming off another postseason run where Deandre Ayton's play has raised frustration and Chris Paul has been unable to stay healthy. With a short window to contend with Kevin Durant, Phoenix must act quickly to find the right pieces around him and Devin Booker. Regardless, they would need to worry about both the hard cap and cooperation in a sign-and-trade to even have the outlook necessary to acquire Irving — if interested in doing so.
Before Irving was traded from the Brooklyn Nets, his goal was to receive a four-year max deal without any stipulations tied to compensation. The Mavs will be eligible to start discussing a new contract with Irving the day after the NBA Finals end — putting the onus on them to have a favorable initial conversation.
A good conversation with Irving could help the Mavs to have confidence in pursuing trade avenues to upgrade the roster around him and Doncic. Otherwise, the calculus becomes challenging if Irving's future with the organization hangs in the balance before the NBA Draft begins.
If Irving is re-signed, a realistic first year salary would put the Mavs into the luxury tax — limiting their spending mechanisms outside of trades being the taxpayer mid-level exception. With the new NBA CBA soon making spending big on payroll more challenging to feasibly pull off, the team has to be wise in how spending is done.
Grant Afseth is a Dallas Mavericks reporter for DallasBasketball.com and an NBA reporter for NBA Analysis Network. He previously covered the Indiana Pacers and NBA for CNHI's Kokomo Tribune and various NBA teams for USA TODAY Sports Media Group. Follow him on Twitter (@grantafseth), Facebook (@grantgafseth), and YouTube (@grantafseth).
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