Mavs Playoffs Primer: Jazz or Nuggets Better Matchup?

With just three games remaining in the regular season, it appears that the Dallas Mavericks’ likely first-round opponent will will either be the Utah Jazz or Denver Nuggets.

The NBA playoffs are right around the corner, and the Dallas Mavericks (49-30) are closing in on home-court advantage in the first round for the first time since 2011, as well as their first 50-win season since 2015.

Although there is a slight chance that the Mavs could end up facing either the Golden State Warriors (49-29) or Minnesota Timberwolves (44-34) in the first round, the current Western Conference standings tell us that their opponent will likely either be the Utah Jazz (46-32) or Denver Nuggets (47-32).

Doncic dunks as the Mavs beat the Bucks 118-112 on Sunday.

The Mavs are one win away from their first 50-win season in seven years.

Antetokounmpo challenges Bullock at the rim.

With that in mind, we asked our roundtable participants: Is Utah or Denver the better matchup for Dallas? Should the Mavs be angling to play one or the other? Does it really matter who they play in the first round this time around?

Dalton Trigg: I flip-flop on this a lot, because on one hand, the Jazz seem to be imploding as a team. They’ve blown two huge fourth-quarter leads this week, and Donovan Mitchell refuses to get Rudy Gobert the ball when he has a smaller defender on him. Those two have had chemistry issues in the past, and with reports of the Mavs having interest in a potential Gobert trade this summer, it’s safe to say a lot of people are thinking this is the end of the line for the Jazz.

On the other hand, though, as good as reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is, the Denver Nuggets are still a lot more shorthanded than the Jazz are, especially since it doesn’t look like Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. will return this season. The Mavs guards, led by Luka Doncic, should feast in a series with Denver, and they have enough long, athletic defenders to make Jokic uncomfortable at the very least.

Overall, I’m really just not sure it matters too much to be honest. I know many people are in a “I won’t believe the Mavs are this good until they win a series” mindset, and that’s understandable. But I think this is the year the Mavs make it out of the first round no matter who they play, because guess what? They won’t be playing a Los Angeles Clippers team led by Kawhi Leonard for once… and they also have a healthy and hungry Luka Doncic.

Matt Galatzan: If I’m the Mavs I don't complain about facing either one. Why? Because it’s not the Clippers again, and it’s not NBA-leading Phoenix Suns.

If I have to pick one though, I’ll go with the Nuggets. If they had Jamal Murray, my choice might be different. But without Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in the lineup, I think Denver will have a very difficult time keeping up on the offensive end even if they do have the center version of Doncic on their roster.

Also, despite his struggles at the end of this regular season, playoff Donovan Mitchell still scares me.

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Jokic, Doncic and Mitchell.

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Rudy Gobert was recently linked to the Mavs in offseason trade rumors.

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The Mavs finished the season series with the Jazz tied at 2-2.

Kirk Henderson: Angling to play anyone is a dangerous business for a team like this one. The Mavericks are outstanding, but they also perform like a well-oiled machine because the pieces fit just right. Remove one, and things get funky.

For the longest time I wanted Dallas to play anyone but the Jazz. On paper, the Jazz are a match up problem. In real life, the Jazz have become a team on the brink. Their coach seems likely to leave and their two superstars seem to misunderstand the axiom, "A rising tide lifts all boats.” They work well together but don't get that each benefits from the other's abilities. So I am tilting towards the Jazz.

Jokic is leading a zombified Nuggets team, and Dallas is better than them at everything, but Jokic is also the best player between the two teams (do not stab me, he's going to win his second straight MVP!), so that's a wildcard I would avoid if I could.

But it ultimately doesn't matter. Having Doncic gives me supreme confidence in the face of terrible odds. And if the odds are in the favor of Dallas? Well, count me in.

Grant Afseth: With how effective Luka Doncic is at attacking bigs out in space and in drop coverage, picking between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz doesn’t seem to be the main issue. With Doncic, there’s going to be a very good chance of Dallas winning either series.

Avoiding the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference Semi-Finals seems to be the top problem to solve, and doing so requires the Mavs ending up with the third seed. If made to pick, avoiding the team with the MVP candidate in the first round would likely be the preferred outcome since much of a playoff series is dictated by the superstars.