How Mavericks Can Advance to Knockout Round of NBA Cup

It's the final qualifier for the NBA Cup; here's how the Mavs can advance to the knockout stage

Nov 27, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) walks back up the court during the first quarter against the New York Knicks at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Dallas Mavericks will play the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night in the final NBA Cup qualifying game. With the Mavs having a leg up on the rest of the West, despite not winning their Group, here's how they can advance to the knockout round of the NBA Cup Tournament.

The Golden State Warriors have already locked up West Group C, sitting with a 3-0 record in NBA Cup play, including a win over the Mavs. They own every possible tie-breaker, so even if they lose their next NBA Cup game, they're already in. That means Dallas can only secure the Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.

READ MORE: Mavericks vs. Grizzlies: How to Watch, TV, Time, Odds, & Preview

Dallas is one of five Western Conference teams with a 2-1 NBA Cup record, along with the Portland Trail Blazers (West Group A), San Antonio Spurs (Group B), OKC Thunder (Group B), and Phoenix Suns (Group B). The Mavericks do have a massive advantage over the first tie-breaker used, which is point differential in NBA Cup games.

The Mavs have a +41 in their NBA Cup games, thanks to a massive 41-point win over the Pelicans. The next-highest 2-1 team is the Suns at +19, though the Thunder (+18) and Spurs (+14) aren't far behind. Portland (-5 differential) is basically out of it already.

The Suns and the Spurs play on Tuesday night, which will eliminate one of those teams, while the Thunder play the lowly Utah Jazz. The Thunder own the tiebreaker over the Suns, but the Spurs own the tiebreaker over OKC due to head-to-head results. OKC is almost guaranteed to beat Utah; the question is, by how much?

Any result for the Mavericks to make the knockout stage of the NBA Cup obviously starts with a win on Tuesday against the Grizzlies. After that, whoever gets the Wild Card in West Group B between the Spurs, Thunder, and Suns can't win their game by at least 22 points more than the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies by. Ideally, if OKC beats the Jazz by a million, the Suns beat the Spurs so that OKC gets the automatic spot for winning the group, and it'll be hard for the Suns to beat the Spurs by 22 points plus whatever they'd need to make up from Dallas' win over Memphis.

The knockout round of the NBA Cup would start sometime next week, either on Tuesday or Wednesday.

READ MORE: Will Klay Thompson or Kyrie Irving Play in Mavericks-Grizzlies?

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