How Mavs' Comeback Win Against Knicks Was Statistical Anomaly

The Dallas Mavericks trailed by nine points with 33.2 seconds remaining in regulation in their improbable win over the New York Knicks.

There was no shortage of firsts achieved during the Dallas Mavericks' 126-121 overtime win over the New York Knicks. Not only did Luka Doncic achieve the first-ever 60-20-10 game, but the way in which the team rallied back made history in itself. 

The Mavs trailed by nine points with 33.2 seconds remaining in regulation. According to ESPN Stats & Info, NBA teams were 0-13,884 in the last 20 seasons when trailing by at least nine with 35 or fewer seconds remaining in regulation before the Mavs pulled off their win against the Knicks. 

NBA teams were 0-13,884 in the last 20 seasons when trailing by at least nine with 35 or fewer seconds remaining, per @ESPNStatsInfo.

Luka Doncic and the Mavs pulled off a miracle.

— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) December 28, 2022

“I mean, that was pretty impressive," Doncic said of the comeback. "The whole team just kept going. [Teams were] 0-13,000+ games and with 35 seconds [left]. That’s impressive. Everybody just kept it together. We believed. That’s what I will say to that.”

The comeback began with a made 3-pointer from Christian Wood with about 26 seconds left to play. All of a sudden, the Mavs go from being down nine points to just six. Had that shot been offline, there may not have been anything they could have done. Regardless ,the odds were still against the Mavs and it would surely take some favorable events to force overtime.

The Mavs had were aggressive to execute a full-court trap after the inbounds pass. They managed to tie up Quentin Grimes and ultimately they had won the jump ball. They knew the objective as soon as Wood's 3-pointer went in and made it happen. Dallas was down six with 21.0 seconds remaining.

On the possession created by winning the jump ball, Tim Hardaway Jr. had missed a 3-pointer. As the shot was going up, Dwight Powell and Doncic crashed the boards at the same time. Julius Randle accounted for Doncic while nobody made contact with Doncic, allowing him to make a putback and did so while drawing a shooting foul. After Doncic made the free throw, the Mavs trailed 112-109 with 15.1 seconds left. 

The Mavs opted to play the foul game out of the timeout and sent Miles McBride to the line with 11.1 seconds remaining. He split on the pair of free throws, so the Mavs trailed 113-109 at that point. Dallas advanced the ball cross mid-court using a timeout and took advantage, getting a clean look for Spencer Dinwiddie on a pull-up 3-pointer after using Luka Doncic as a decoy on a handoff. At this point, the Mavs trailed 113-112 with 9.1 seconds left.

McBride got sent to the free throw line once again after the Mavs execute a take foul. This time, he converts on both free throw attempts. The Mavs now trail 115-113 with 7.1 seconds remaining. The Knicks try to do a take foul again since their lead was back to being three. Doncic was sent to the free throw line and he converts the first, but intentionally misses the second, leading to a miraculous putback floater after the ball was tipped. 

Doncic was celebrating after his putback floater went in because he thought the Mavs had actually won the game at that point. He later realized that it was instead a tied game with the likeliest of outcomes being that overtime would be required.

“A lot of people asked me about this back in the locker room, and I said I thought we won it,” Doncic said. “That’s why I went to the crowd like this. I thought we won the game, and then I see it’s tied. I was like, ‘Oof.’”

All the Knicks had time to do from that point was to throw a heave and hope that it went in. The game was tied 115-115 at the end of regulation, resulting in overtime. The Mavs outscored New York 11-6 throughout overtime to win 126-121. It took a full team effort for Dallas to pull off such a victory. 

"This kid [Luka Doncic] doesn't quit," Mavs coach Jason Kidd said of the comeback effort. "He doesn't quit. You can see that. I think he trusted. Late game was better for us tonight. Looking at Spencer [Dinwiddie] makes a big shot; he could have easily flipped it back to LD [Luka Doncic], he keeps it, he has a wide-open 3. But the put-back, JaVale [McGee] calls that. JaVale, again we said in the locker room, helped us.

"Everybody participated, helped us win. That was a big play by JaVale, sitting there the whole night and then coming up with a play to be able to help tie the game. LD wanted a foul, too. I wasn't going to get greedy, I was just going to take the two points but I think he might have gotten fouled – who knows? Again, Luka doesn’t quit; he keeps playing and his teammates didn't quit when they saw that from their leader. Everyone had a part in making a big play down the stretch."

The Mavs return to action on Thursday when they take on the Houston Rockets. Dallas is on a four-game winning streak with the goal of extending it to five if they win against their Southwest Division rival. 

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