Key Stats Heading Into Western Conference Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Timberwolves

Very little that happened in the regular season series between these two teams matters heading into the Conference Finals

Jan 7, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Derrick Jones Jr. (55) and guard Kyrie Irving (hand) and guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrate during the second half against the Minnesota Timberwolves at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to play in the Western Conference Finals, starting on Wednesday night. Minnesota won the season series 3-1, but a closer look at those games reveals that you can't take much away from those games.

Luka Doncic only played in two games against the Wolves, while Kyrie Irving only played in one, and they played together in the third game, Dallas' lone win. The Mavericks rolled out a starting lineup of Jaden Hardy, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, Grant Williams, and Richaun Holmes in the fourth game, and Hardy, Dante Exum, Derrick Jones Jr., Williams, and Dereck Lively II starting the second game (which the Mavs only lost by 8). Safe to say, that's not the Dallas Mavericks that are in the conference finals currently.

The Mavericks that have played the most minutes against the Timberwolves are Hardaway, Grant Williams, Derrick Jones Jr., Dwight Powell, and Hardy, with Hardaway and Williams being the only two to play 100+ minutes. Only Jones will see serious minutes in this series unless Hardaway and/or Hardy get hot in a game. All of the games occurred before the trade deadline and Dallas acquired Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, who have been instrumental in turning around the Mavs' defense.

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So what stats are there to know?

This will be a series of two elite defenses: Minnesota had the best defensive rating in the NBA throughout the regular season, while Dallas had the best defensive rating in the NBA for the last 20 games of the regular season.

To further exemplify the strong defenses, Dallas just held the NBA's leading 3-point shooting team, Oklahoma City, to 33.8% from 3 for the entire second round after they shot 38.9% in the regular season. They also out-rebounded the Thunder by 41 over the final five games of the series and by 30 in the final two games alone. It'll be hard to do that against Minnesota's front line, who was +22 on the glass in the final two games against Denver, but they have a chance to contend with Lively, Gafford, and Washington.

Minnesota was one of the best teams in the NBA at keeping opponents out of the paint, allowing 46.1 paint points per game. That number has dropped to 42 PPG in the playoffs, despite coming out of a series playing Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon. Having a trio of bigs in Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid makes it hard to score on the interior. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving may have their work cut out for them on drives and they may have a more difficult time hitting the lob passes to Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II.

If Dallas takes the same defensive approach with Minnesota as they did Oklahoma City, Anthony Edwards will likely have to settle for mid-range jumpers and be the main scorer. In the playoffs, Edwards is 19/43 (44.2%) on mid-range attempts and 78/154 (50.6%) on any shot when he has to take 3+ dribbles. I expect Dallas to try to wear out the clock on defense. If they can get Minnesota in late-clock situations, Edwards isn't as lethal there yet, shooting 21/53 (39.6%) with less than 7 seconds on the shot clock. Still, Edwards is averaging over 28 PPG this postseason and his motor never turns off. If he's not getting it done offensively, he'll find a way to be effective.

The Mavs did a great job of limiting everyone outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the Semifinals, but Karl-Anthony Towns is a better natural scorer than any second option OKC had. He's averaging 18.8 PPG in the playoffs while shooting 44% from 3 as Minnesota's second option. No one else is averaging more than 12.4 PPG in the playoffs for the Wolves; it's all been about their defense. Towns has had some big games against P.J. Washington, including his 62-point outburst in January against the Hornets before Washington was traded. According to the NBA's box score, 18 of those points came with Washington as the primary defender despite him only guarding Towns for a small portion of the game. Coach Jason Kidd will likely play Game 1 vanilla and make adjustments as needed. If Towns explodes for 30+, they can talk about shifting help P.J.'s way. Dallas would be fine if Towns stays in the range of 15-20 points per game, like he has for most of the playoffs.

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Minnesota's defense is allowing just 99.6 PPG this postseason. Dallas is just 1-3 in games they've scored fewer than 100 points in the playoffs, meaning Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will have to be strong in this series.

The Timberwolves also do a great job of converting on steals. In the postseason, they're 5-0 in games with 8 or more steals, 3-3 when having less, and have scored 17.1 PPG off turnovers in the playoffs, the best of any remaining team. Dallas turned the ball over a lot against OKC, averaging 13.7 PPG, with 7.7 of those being steals. Minnesota has pesky defenders in Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Mike Conley; Dallas will have to take better care of the ball in this series.

While Minnesota is about average at 3-point shooting at 35.8% from 3 in the playoffs, Dallas will have to watch out for Towns, Conley, and Edwards from deep, who are all around 40% or better. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (SGA's cousin) and Jaden McDaniels have their moments as shooters, but a lot of their shots come on open looks. Dallas will likely pick and choose who to leave open, as they did in OKC, but they'll do their best to keep those shots out of rhythm.

This series may come down to Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who averaged 2.1 blocks per game this season, but just 1.3 BPG against Denver last round. The last time Luka Doncic played Gobert in the Playoffs in 2022, Gobert was largely ineffective as Dallas spaced the floor with Maxi Kleber and Doncic could abuse Gobert any time there was a switch. Doncic was also playing through an injury then, so he has experience with this situation. Because Kleber is out for at least the beginning of the series, Dallas doesn't have someone to pick and pop with and will be rolling with the rim-running Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Doncic still has his step-back to create space and Kyrie Irving is as electric with the ball as anyone, but they'll have to find a new way to beat Gobert, whether it be floaters, lobs, or pull-ups.

As far as general experience this deep into the postseason, here is everyone that has appeared in a conference finals for either team: Kyrie Irving (3 appearances), Luka Doncic (1), Josh Green (1), Derrick Jones Jr. (1), Maxi Kleber (1), Markieff Morris (played in 1, was on bench for another, he likely won't play this series), Dwight Powell (1), Mike Conley (1). Conley is the only Timberwolf to have played in the Conference Finals, and that was in 2013 with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Game 1 starts Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. CST from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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