Mavs Roundtable: Expectations for Dallas in Re-Start Season

In an NBA year filled with unprecedented circumstances, what are expectations for the 40-27 Dallas Mavs? A DBcom Roundtable: Expectations for Dallas in this Re-Start Season

DALLAS – The path to becoming 2019-20 NBA Champions is unlike any other that has come before it. Whichever team holds up the trophy at the end of the newly-restarted NBA season will be distinct, in the wake of the global COVID-19 pandemic.

On July 31, 22 teams (top eight teams in each conference and all teams within six games of eighth place in either conference) will compete for the crown. All games will be played at Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando with no fans in attendance.

The 22 teams will play eight regular-season games to determine playoff seeding, allowing some of the bubble teams an opportunity at the playoffs.

Dallas is currently the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference, close to clinching a playoff spot with a seven-game lead over the Grizzlies. Beyond securing a playoff spot, the eight games are important – they provide the Mavs the chance to move up in the standings, as the fourth-seeded Utah Jazz are 2.5 games ahead of Dallas.

In a season filled with unprecedented circumstances, what are expectations for the 40-27 Mavs? Before the NBA hiatus, Dallas possessed one of the top offenses in the league… But what about that 17th-ranked defense? Will the rest disrupt chemistry or benefit the Mavs?

Our Mavs insight and expectations as The 75-Member Staff gathers at the DBcom Roundtable:

Bri Amaranthus: It would not be smart to underestimate this well-rested Mavs team at full health. Luka Doncic’s nagging injuries are reportedly healed and Kristaps Porzingis should be fresh. Those two stars must recapture their offensive rhythm in a few weeks of training camp for the Mavs to get past the first round. More importantly, Porzingis’ defensive prowess has to be at a level where coach Rick Carlisle insists it's been - "Defensive Player of the Year''-level.

Matt Galatazan: I agree with Bri in the sense that this rest has given the Mavs some much-needed time to heal, and now that they are finally at full strength (minus Dwight Powell and Jalen Brunson), they have every opportunity to succeed in this thing. 

What I think is even more interesting, is that this type of format, with everyone being in one central location, is oddly similar to the EuroBasket tournaments that Luka and Kristaps are used to playing in throughout their careers, and I think that could provide them a distinct advantage when its all said and done.

That said, if they end up having to play the Clippers in Round 1, they’re probably gonna have a bad time. Either way you slice it though, its just going to be nice to see them out on the court again, and get Luka and KP some playoff experience. 

Richie Whitt: Regardless of where they wind up being seeded, the Mavs will be the team that other teams don't want to face in the playoffs.

Why? Because they sport an offense that can get hot from the perimeter and simply run you out of the gym, a battle-tested head coach who can adapt and adjust on the fly, and a leader in Luka Doncic who has been noshing on post-season pressure since like the 2nd grade.

Dalton Trigg: People who know me and have followed my work over the years would probably say that tend to be a little optimistic at times when it comes to my Mavs predictions (stop laughing, guys). 

Mike Fisher: Actually, I love the theories all of us at DallasBasketball.com have floated in regard to "the benefit of the unknown.'' Of course, maybe that's just all of us being optimistic homers!

Dalton: That said, I have to take a moment just to say that, this season, before the hiatus, was turning out exactly the way I thought it would. In my Mavs schedule preview pod on Step Back Mavs, I predicted the final record being 45-37, given good health. At 40-27 before the season was suspended, I’d even go as far to say that I undershot it a little bit, because that record is with Doncic missing 13 games and Porzingis missing 16.

So, anyway, long story short, my expectations were already high going into the season, but they’re probably even higher now, as crazy as that may sound. Matt and Bri, I agree with both of you that health plays a big factor in this. Luka and KP heading into the postseason at full-strength? I’ll give the Mavs a fighting chance against anyone. 

Richie: The Mavs have beaten the top two teams in the East and Nos. 1 and 3 in the West. Against the current 15 other playoff teams headed to Orlando, they are a more-than-respectable 15-17.

If this was a single-elimination, they'd be the most dangerous team in the tournament. As is, their personnel and pedigree points to them being a tough out.

Fish: I believe that the only "bad'' scenario'' is opening against the Clippers in the playoffs; that team features over-sized, athletic wings - maybe the Mavs defense's biggest Kryptonite.

But otherwise? Kristaps Porzingis has never had this chance before; what if he steps up even more? Luka Doncic has lived this (Euro) life before; what if he's too "ignorantly confident'' to know he's not supposed to excel in the NBA Playoffs at age 21?

Dallas' greatest advantage in the regular season comes with the league decision to play some more games; the chance to jump up exists.

Bri: Yes! We've all witnessed how a confident Doncic is extremely hard to stop. Also important to note - The rest of the league has experienced the same interruption that the Mavs have, which I think could lead to favorites and those fighting for better seeding to fall off. Outside factors and the unprecedented format evens the playing field, which bodes well for the Mavs.

Fish: But do you want to know Dallas' greatest advantage overall? Rick Carlisle. Contrary to what his rare critics believe, he is highly adaptable. Go slow to avoid mistakes? Rick has done it. Rely on a perimeter game? Rick can win that way. Be offensively efficient and fast? The 2019-20 Mavs, in that regard, shouldn't change a thing after the hiatus. Dallas is the most offensively efficient/explosive, per 100 possessions, in NBA history.

Dalton: Mike, great point. The league, unintentionally of course, just gave one of the best coaches in the league three or four extra months to prepare for teams the Mavs might face in the playoffs. That almost doesn’t seem fair, but the Mavs will definitely take what they can get.

Fish: I know it's an NBA tradition to get to the playoffs and shorten the rotation and grind it out. But what if Rick dismisses that by a) Playing a Boban or a Barea when it fits, damn the "short rotation'' and b) trying to continue to score 116 points per 100 possessions?

Succeed at that, and Dallas is a tough out. Advance a bit before eventual elimination, and Luka and KP and the Mavs develop "scar tissue'' that'll pay off in future playoff runs.

Catch The 75-Member Staff on Twitter: Fish, Galatzan, Bri, Trigg and Whitt.