NBA Draft Lottery 2023 Primer: Breaking Down Mavs Odds

The biggest NBA Draft Lottery prize is Victor Wembanyama, who will most likely be the No. 1 pick this year, but the Dallas Mavericks can still win on May 16 even if they don't have that kind of luck.

Dalton Trigg | May 7, 2023

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Dallas Mavericks

We are now down to single-digit days remaining until the NBA Draft Lottery gets underway on May 16, and the Dallas Mavericks are hoping to have some good luck that hasn't come for the franchise in its previous 16 visits. The Mavs enter the lottery with the 10th-best odds, but they could still potentially move up or move down.

Given how disappointing the 2022-23 season was for a Dallas squad that made the Western Conference Finals the previous year, paired with the fact that the Mavs lack high-quality trade assets after acquiring Kyrie Irving, the results of this lottery bear more weight than they would under normal circumstances.

According to Tankathon.com, here are the picks the Mavs have a chance at getting, as well as the odds they have for each of those picks:

Pick	Odds
No. 1	3.0%
No. 2	3.3%
No. 3	3.6%
No. 4	4.0%
No. 5	0.0%
No. 6	0.0%
No. 7	0.0%
No. 8	0.0%
No. 9	0.0%
No. 10	65.9%
No. 11	19.0%
No. 12	1.2%
No. 13	>0.0%
No. 14	>0.0%

For those doing the math at home, that's a 13.9-percent chance the Mavs have of potentially jumping into the top-4 picks, and overall, they have a 79.8-percent chance of keeping their pick. If Dallas' pick falls in between No. 11 through No. 14, it will convey to the New York Knicks to complete the 2019 Kristaps Porzingis trade.

The Mavs' self-proclaimed top priority this summer is to re-sign Irving, as losing him for nothing after trading two key starters and a future first-round pick for him would be a disaster. Those talks could come down to money more than anything else, but the Mavs having a top-4 pick would give them a clearer path to building around Irving and Luka Doncic than they currently have.

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Published May 7, 2023

DALTON TRIGG

Dalton Trigg is the Editor-In-Chief for Dallas Basketball, as well as the Executive Editor overseeing Inside The Rockets, Inside The Spurs, All Knicks, and The Magic Insider. He is the founder and host for the Mavs Step Back Podcast, which is a proud part of the Blue Wire podcast network. Trigg graduated from the University of Southern Mississippi’s College of Business and Economic Development with a bachelor’s degree in entrepreneurship in 2016. After spending a few years with multiple Dallas Mavericks-related blogs, including SB Nation’s Mavs Moneyball, Trigg joined DallasBasketball.com as a staff writer in 2018 and never looked back. At the start of 2022, he was promoted to the EIC title he holds now. Through the years, Trigg has conducted a handful of high-profile one-on-one interviews to add to his resume — in both writing and podcasting. Some of his biggest interviews have been with Mavs owner Mark Cuban, Mavs GM Nico Harrison, now-retired legend Dirk Nowitzki and many other current/former players and team staffers. Many of those interviews and other articles by Trigg have been aggregated by other well-known sports media websites, such as Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and others. You can find Trigg on all major social media channels, but his most prevalent platform is on Twitter. Whether it’s posting links to his DBcom work, live-tweeting Mavs games or merely giving his opinions on things going on with Dallas and the rest of the NBA, the daily content never stops rolling. For any inquiries, please email Dalton@MavsStepBack.com.