Will Luka Doncic Win His First MVP This Season?

One could argue that Doncic might take a step back in production this year, but he should be at the top of the MVP race

Jan 24, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts during the first half against the Phoenix Suns at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

There is a lot of hype heading into the 2024-25 season surrounding Luka Doncic's chances to win his first MVP award. After averaging 33.9 PPG, 9.8 APG, and 9.2 RPG and winning 50 games last season, he only finished in third place, leaving fans to wonder what it would take for him to win. So what will it take for Doncic to take home the franchise's second MVP award?

The MVP race is never as black and white as it seems. Sometimes, it's handed to the best player on the best team (2011 Derrick Rose), and other times, it's handed out to the best statistical season (2017 Russell Westbrook). Last season fell in between, with Nikola Jokic winning his third MVP in four seasons, but voter fatigue is likely to set in at some point for him. The only players with more than three MVP wins in NBA history are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6), Bill Russell (5), Michael Jordan (5), and LeBron James (4). This isn't to say Jokic isn't on the level of those guys, but it'd be surprising to see him placed in that group already.

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From Doncic's perspective, it'd be surprising to see him put up the stats he did last season. The Dallas Mavericks hope Kyrie Irving will be healthy, as he hasn't played more than 60 games since the 2018-19 season, and Klay Thompson will be an ideal third scorer. Doncic may not average the near-34 PPG he did last season, but he could see his APG hit double digits for the first time in his career.

The Mavericks made a point to add more perimeter shooting this offseason, bringing in Thompson, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, and Spencer Dinwiddie, who have all shown to be quality shooters over their careers. That extra shooting will leave defenses choosing whether to force Luka to pass or score, and he can beat teams with either.

Doncic's biggest factor working against him last season, at least, according to ESPN's Tim Bontemps, is the MVP supposedly needs momentum coming in from the season before. He didn't have that last year, as the Mavs missed the playoffs in 2023, but now Dallas is coming off a run to the NBA Finals. Doncic should have that momentum working in his favor.

As long as Doncic remains healthy and the Mavs are near the top of the Western Conference, as they're projected to be, Luka Doncic should be at the top of the MVP race. Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Joel Embiid may have something to say about that, but this is around the time when the basketball legends take home their first MVPs in their career. LeBron James won his first in his sixth season, Jokic's first came in his sixth, Magic Johnson's first came in his eighth, and Stephen Curry won his first in his sixth. With Doncic entering his seventh season, and given the trajectory he's been on in his career, he should be taking home his first MVP sooner rather than later.

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