Is the Pacers' Current Core Good Enough to Win an NBA Championship This Season?

Can Indiana as currently comprised win it all for the first time ever?

Oct 30, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) and guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) celebrate Siakam’s game-winning three point basket against the Boston Celtics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Grace Smith-Imagn Images / Grace Smith/USA Today Network via Imagn Images

The Indiana Pacers rode a young lineup, led by point guard Tyrese Haliburton, all the way to an Eastern Conference Finals berth in the spring of 2024.

Many pundits — this one included — think that was a bit of a fluke. Indiana was a No. 6 seed, and capitalized on injuries to the best players on first-round opponents the Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the entire series, Damian Lillard missed two games) and second-round opponents the New York Knicks (pretty much everybody not named Josh Hart was hurt by Game 7).

Really cool moment here. The shorthanded Knicks take a beating from the Pacers after an all-time game 7 performance. Down 17, the MSG crowd still has the wherewithal to appreciate the effort of Josh Hart. Hart averaged 43 MPG these playoffs and played game 7 through an ab strain. pic.twitter.com/lxUv6NesDP

— Hot Hand Theory (@HotHandTheory) May 19, 2024

This year's model looks to be on track for a better season finish, thanks in part to the growth of Bennedict Mathurin and Jarace Walker, plus the further integration of Pascal Siakam into Rick Carlisle's system.

But is Indiana good enough to win it all?

At 30-23, Indiana is currently the No. 4 seed. If the postseason kicked off today, that would mean the Pacers would once again face off against the older Bucks, the No. 5 seed at 29-24.

The Pacers have been blown out by the Bucks in both of their encounters thus far this season, by an average of 20.5 points. Still, their speed, youth, shooting acumen and relative athleticism could give Milwaukee fits when the games start to count.

Beyond that matchup, however, Indiana does seem to be a tier below this year's new-look Knicks (who have added Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges since their playoff loss to the Pacers), plus the reigning champion Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers.

More injury luck may need to break Indiana's way for the team to even emerge out of the Eastern Conference this season.

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Zooming out, this reporter is skeptical Indiana can ever win with this current core. Haliburton, a two-time All-Star and one-time All-NBA Third Teamer, already seems to be regressing at the ripe old age of 24 with a concerning rash of injuries.

one year ago Tyrese Haliburton started in the #NBAAllStar Game in Indy 🌟

32 PTS | 10 3PM | 7 REB | 6 AST pic.twitter.com/QFLOmI0dlW

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) February 18, 2025

It's hard to see Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, or rising sixth man wing Bennedict Mathurin become All-Stars in time before 30-year-old All-Star power forward Pascal Siakam — who was once the third-best player on a championship Toronto Raptors team — and 28-year-old 3-and-D center Myles Turner erode.

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To win it all, the Pacers likely need a third All-Star next to Siakam and Haliburton, seemingly along the wing. Nembhard and Nesmith both already have two-way ability, with Nembhard having won Defensive Player of the Month honors in January for the Eastern Conference.

Nembhard, should he remain healthy, seems likely to be named to his first All-Defensive Team this spring.

The third-year wing remains more of a catch-and-shoot player than a creator. This season, he's averaging 10.5 points on .468/.322/.783 shooting splits, 4.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals a night. Could he eventually have a Kawhi Leonard- or Jimmy Butler-esque evolution as an offensive standout, building on his impressive defensive foundation?

Nesmith, who like Nembhard is already 25, has barely been healthy this year. In just 18 contests (10 starts), he's averaging 7.6 points on .465/.362/.897 shooting splits, 3.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.7 steals a night. That shooting line represents a massive dip from his output last year — he averaged 12.2 points on a .496/.419/.781 slash line, 3.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks a night.

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