Pacers Guard Given Shocking Odds to Win Major End-of-Season NBA Award

Does the Indiana mainstay have a shot this year?

Nov 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard De'Anthony Melton (8) dribbles up court past Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) and guard T.J. McConnell (9) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

In a recent panel of ESPN NBA insiders, where those experts were asked to rank-vote their picks for several end-of-season award winners, a standout Indiana Pacers guard cracked the top nine among Sixth Man of the Year honorees. But it wasn't even Indiana's best reserve.

It was back-up point guard T.J. McConnell, who has undoubtedly been solid again this season. Through 16 games this year, the 6-foot-1 vet out of Arizona is averaging 10.1 points on .566/.200/.667 shooting splits (numbers one would expect to level out this year for a career 34.8 percent 3-point shooter and 78.2 percent free throw shooter), along with 4.4 assists, 2.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals a night.

Boston Celtics backup point guard Payton Pritchard was the preferred pick at this early stage of the season.

McConnell's production this year pales in comparison to the club's true sixth man, shooting guard Bennedict Mathurin. Though he normally plays behind starter Andrew Nembhard, Mathurin has been starting in his stead since Nembhard incurred a knee injury three weeks ago. The 6-foot-6 swingman, who also played his college ball with the Wildcats, is averaging a career-best 18.7 points on elite .500/.426/.838 shooting splits, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 0.7 swipes a night.

The real issue with Mathurin's hypothetical candidacy, of course, is just how many games he'll actually play off Indiana's bench. He's already started 12 of 17 contests thanks to injuries to Nembhard and starting small forward Aaron Nesmith, the latter of whom has missed all but six games with a lingering ankle injury. Per Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star, head coach Rick Carlisle expects Nesmith to return in December or January, while he stayed mum on a recovery timeline for Nembhard.

In order for a player to qualify for the league's Sixth Man of the Year award, he needs to play more games as a reserve than as a starter. In two more months (i.e. around the time of Nesmith's expected comeback, to say nothing of Nembhard's), Mathurin will get dangerously close to the 41-game mark (i.e. half of a full NBA regular season). Mathurin has emerged as such an effective and efficient scorer, while All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton has struggled in both those departments, that he may just get to permanently replace one of the ailing wing starters long-term. But Mathurin is also most effective with the ball in his hands, unlike Nembhard or Nesmith, who are more deferential and perhaps better fits next to Haliburton and All-NBA power forward Siakam in Carlisle's Day 1 starting lineup.

Assuming Mathurin doesn't qualify, and the Pacers improve from their current middling record (they're 8-10), McConnell could emerge as the top bench prospect on the team. But that's a lot of "if's."

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