ESPN Model Suggests New Orleans Could Be Next First-Time NBA Champions

Could the New Orleans Pelicans be the next team crowned NBA Champions for the first time?

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Is an NBA Championship closer than the New Orleans Pelicans think?

That’s what a recent ESPN article is trying to decipher. Staff writer Neil Paine designed a model of 2,500 simulations to determine Which NBA team is next in line to win its first title.

Of the 30 active teams in the NBA, 10 have yet to be crowned NBA Champions at the season’s end. Six of those teams, including the Pelicans, have never even made the trip to the finals. 

Paine combined Vegas preseason odds with other augmented factors such as Basketball WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and current average roster age to determine which of the ten teams had the highest likelihood of becoming the next first-time champ.

According to the simulations, “there is roughly an 80% chance that at least one new champion etches its name in the record books by 2030,” writes Paine. 

Out of the ten teams still looking for their first taste of championship gold, the Pelicans' odds of being crowned the next first-time winner are ten percent. This is good enough for the middle of the pack among the ten teams without a title, as they came in fifth based on odds. The simulation likes the Minnesota Timberwolves the best, recording a 24.9 percent chance there’s a first-time champion in the next six years. 

If the Pelicans could make a splash in the next few seasons, it would be a massive accomplishment for the organization. Not only has the team not made the NBA Finals in its short history, but it has failed to get past the second round. New Orleans has lost both times (2008, 2018), but it made it to the second round, not being able to make it to the Western Conference Finals. 

When speaking on the odds given to the current Pelicans team, Paine writes, “If that translates to so much as a moderately deep postseason run -- to say nothing of a championship -- it would be breaking new ground for a franchise that has never been past the second round of the playoffs. But a 10% chance from the model is far from terrible odds, given the team's sparse history of previous playoff success.”

Although the team is currently dealing with injuries to two prominent players, which is hugely affecting the team’s production out of the backcourt, the Pelicans are building something worth paying attention to. Once recently acquired Dejounte Murray returns from his fractured hand in approximately four to six weeks, assuming the rest of the team stays healthy, they will be a top contender in the conference. 

There are still many other factors to consider when selecting the next ‘first-time’ champion. If the Pelicans decide to move on from someone like Brandon Ingram, it would likely lower their odds, as they would be taking an immediate step back to retool for the club's longevity. 

Regardless of what route the New Orleans front office decides to make this season, as they have some big questions looming before the NBA Trade Deadline, the team seems to be on the right path toward being perennial contenders in the West.