Canada's Results vs Spain Will be Crucial For Playoff Seeding & Medal Hopes

If Canada can beat Spain on Friday morning, the senior men's basketball team should be able to avoid the United States in the playoff moving forward

Jul 30, 2024; Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France; Canada small forward Dillon Brooks (24) posts up against Australia guard Patty Mills (5) in a men's group stage basketball match during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Canada has clinched a spot in the playoff for men's basketball at the Paris Olympics but the team's final group-stage game against Spain is anything but meaningless.

Finishing 1st

Canada can finish first in Group A by beating Spain. A win means Canada will be at worst the No. 3 team in the playoff bracket and likely avoid being on the same side of the bracket as the United States who should be the top seed in the playoff. If Canada beats Spain, the difference between the second and third seeds will be determined by point differential between Canada and whoever wins the Germany-France game.

There is, however, a backdoor option for Canada to still clinch the top seed even with a loss to Spain. If Australis beats Greece and Canada loses to Spain by seven points or fewer, Canada will still clinch the No. 1 seed in Group A. In this situation, Canada would be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the playoff depending on the margin of defeat in the Germany-France game.

Finishing 2nd

If Spain beats Canada and Greece beats Australia, Canada will be the No. 2 seed in Group A and will likely end up on the same side of the bracket as the United States in the playoff. This would also happen if Australia defeats Greece and Canada loses by nine or 10 points to Spain.

In this scenario, Canada would likely be the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the playoff and would likely play the United States in the semi-finals should Canada advance out of the first round.

Finishing 3rd

If Australia beats Greece and Canada loses to Spain in a blowout of 12 or more points, Canada will qualify as a wild-card team for the playoffs as the third-best team in Group A.

In this scenario, it's possible Canada could fall as low as the No. 7 seed in the playoff which would bump Canada away from the United States and into the lower half of the bracket with a first-round matchup against either Germany or France.

Why This Matters

For Canada, Friday's game will decide where the country ends up in the playoff. Considering how formidable the United States has looked so far, it'll be imperative for Canada to stay on the bottom side of the bracket as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. That by no means guarantees Canada a podium finish, but it'll give Canada a much better shot to advance to the final with a potential showdown against the United States on the horizon.