Lottery Lookahead: Raptors' Remaining Schedule May Cause Problems

The Toronto Raptors have by far the league's easiest remaining schedule as they hope to clinch a top pick in this year's draft

Jan 29, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) drives to the basket as Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma (33) defends in the third quarter at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It was always going to be a challenge. 

From the moment the Toronto Raptors’ schedule was released, it was clear the league’s schedule makers hadn’t done them any favors. The opening month was a gauntlet, packed with matchups against teams projected to be among the NBA’s elite. A grueling five-game West Coast trip loomed in early November, and outside of a lone visit to Charlotte, there were few, if any, soft spots. 

Now, 55 games into the season, the numbers tell the story. Toronto has faced the toughest schedule in the league so far, and while injuries have certainly played a role in the team’s struggles, the slate of opponents hasn’t helped matters. 

But the tide is about to turn. 

Beginning March 7, when the Raptors host the Utah Jazz, the schedule takes a dramatic shift. Sixteen of Toronto’s final 20 games will be against teams in the league’s bottom third, including three meetings with the Washington Wizards, two with the Charlotte Hornets, and two more against the Jazz. With 27 games left in the season, the Raptors now have the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule by a significant margin. Their opponents boast a combined win percentage of just 39.8%, five percentage points lower than any other team. 

Had the schedule been flipped, there’s a reasonable chance Toronto’s season would have played out differently. A softer opening stretch could have created a mirage of early success before reality hit when the schedule toughened. Instead, the Raptors find themselves in a strange position, one where their record may not fully reflect their talent. 

When healthy, Toronto has shown it can compete. This isn’t a team completely devoid of talent, and it certainly has enough to handle the league’s bottom feeders. That is what makes this final stretch so complicated. 

The organization has made it clear that development and lottery positioning are the priorities. Right now, the Raptors hold a 42.1% chance at a top-four pick and a 10.5% shot at landing the No. 1 selection. Maintaining or even improving those odds is the goal. 

The benefit of the remaining schedule is that Toronto controls its own fate. Losses to the league’s worst teams would push them further down the standings, tightening the gap between them and Charlotte, who sit 2.5 games ahead for the fourth-worst record. 

But what happens if the Raptors win too much? What if the schedule shift sparks momentum, confidence, or even a few unexpected victories that move them up the standings? Would that be a step forward or a missed opportunity?

The final stretch of the season won’t just shape Toronto’s lottery odds. It may reveal just how committed the organization is to the path it has chosen.

Further Reading

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Raptors Take on Undermanned Spurs: Where to Watch, What to Watch For, & More

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Raptors to Rest 2 Starters vs. Spurs

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Warriors Legend Praises Raptors Coach After On-Court Back-and-Forth

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Lottery Look: Raptors Must Remain Focused on the Prize as Final Stretch Nears

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Raptors in Tough vs. Warriors: Where to Watch, What to Watch For, & More