A look at Florida's COVID-19 surge as Raptors prepare for return

The Toronto Raptors are heading to Florida for the NBA's return, but COVID-19 cases are surging throughout Florida.

As the Toronto Raptors head to Fort Myers, Florida, to prepare for the return of the NBA season, COVID-19 data out of the state has raised concerns.

The state of Florida has seen a surge in positive COVID-19 cases over the past month with total cases now verging on 100 thousand, according to the COVID Tracking Project. On Sunday alone, the state had nearly four thousand new confirmed cases.

New York Times

"We're seeing increased risk for coronavirus transmission throughout the state of Florida in multiple counties," said Dr. David Rubin, the director of PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. "When we do these projections in multiple counties it gives you confidence that there's fairly widespread transmission that's been occurring in Florida."

The Toronto Raptors announced Monday that they will stay in Fort Myers, located in Lee County, until mid-July when they'll relocate to Orlando for the start of the NBA season.

Lee County has had 3,627 confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins University, and that number is expected to continue rising, according to Rubin and his PolicyLab team.

Johns Hopkins University

"What's been concerning about Florida is for multiple weeks the concern for transmission has been increasing," Rubin said.

"Florida has all the makings of the next large epicenter," Rubin's team wrote on June 17. "Miami and Florida’s southeastern counties now join the Tampa/Fort Myers area and Orlando for a fairly widespread transmission event that we forecast will continue throughout the state."

Based on the PolicyLab's projections from June 13, the number of positive COVID-19 cases is expected to soar in Lee County in the coming weeks.

PolicyLab at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

The data in the graph above is based on new case data, social distancing measures, population density, testing capabilities, and weather over the previous 14 days.

The trends in Orange County, where Orlando is located, are equally concerning.

As for the NBA's plan to return, Rubin said it all comes down to safety precautions and how vigilant the league is about taking all the necessary measures to mitigate the spread of the virus.