Raptors Play-In Dreams Suddenly Not So Far Fetched

The Toronto Raptors have strung together a pair of wins and find themselves with about a 10% chance to make the play-in tournament this season

Play-in for what?

It was three years ago at about this time that the Toronto Raptors put the brakes on their season, shutting down Kyle Lowry and turning their attention toward a top pick in what was then considered an impressive 2021 NBA Draft class. As Raptors president Masai Ujiri later explained, chasing a play-in spot and an unlikely playoff run wasn’t worth it when a lottery pick could change the future of the organization.

Whether or not you believe in the merits of tanking, the results of the so-called ‘Tampa Tank’ speak for themselves. Toronto jumped up the lottery into the top four and landed Scottie Barnes.

The Raptors now find themselves in a somewhat similar situation, albeit with a complicated first-round pick situation to navigate.

At 21-36, Toronto isn’t fooling anyone into thinking this team is serious post-season contenders. The Raptors have the seventh-worst record in the NBA and if the season ended today, they’d have a 32% chance to land a top-four pick. Considering the organization owes a top-six protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs this season, every spot up or down the standings drastically changes the odds of keeping or conveying that pick.

Jumping the Memphis Grizzlies in the reverse standings, for example, would give the Raptors the sixth-worst record and a 45.8% chance to keep its pick.

But a pair of wins over the Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks coming out of the All-Star break have suddenly thrust the organization back into the periphery of the play-in conversation.

Toronto sits just a half-game back of the Nets for the 11th seed in the conference and 3.5 games behind the Hawks for the 10th seed and a spot in the play-in tournament. That’s a significant deficit to overcome with just 25 games remaining, but it’s not impossible. Basketball-Reference, for example, gives the Raptors an 11% chance to sneak into the play-in tournament.

“It's very important,” Raptors coach Darko Rajaković said of chasing a play-in spot. “We want to go into every single game competing and trying to catch up for a play-in and try to make the playoffs, and to grow at the same time.”

For now, the Raptors aren’t shutting it down. Sure, they're not going to prioritize short-term goals over long-term development, but the plan for the team is to complete. They know it’ll be an uphill climb for a play-in spot, but the chase in and of itself is an important learning experience for Toronto’s young core.

And if that means conveying the eighth or ninth pick to the Spurs this year, so be it. Toronto is prepared to let fate decide what happens on lottery night.