Searching for Raptors' Optimism Down 0-2

The Raptors need to get hot in a hurry and hope the shooting pendulum swings away from the Boston Celtics as Game 3 approaches

The Toronto Raptors dug themselves quite a hole Tuesday night, falling behind 2-0 in Eastern Conference semifinals series to the Boston Celtics.

In the history of the NBA, only 21 teams — about 7% — have ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series. One of those teams, however, was last year's Raptors who turned a 2-0 series hole into a 4-2 series victory over the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals.

Last year, the Bucks' series turned when Raptors coach Nick Nurse decided to switch Kawhi Leonard onto Giannis Antetokounmpo to try to stop Milwaukee's top scoring option. It worked perfectly as Toronto won four straight and eventually clinched the NBA championship.

This year, there doesn't appear to be an obvious adjustment the Raptors can make quite like that. It's possible the Raptors move OG Anunoby around defensively, either onto Jayson Tatum to stop the Celtics' top scorer, but that would only create more problems by moving Anunoby off Jaylen Brown.

Ultimately, if the Raptors are going to claw out of the hole they're in they're going to have to start making shots.

Through two games, the Raptors are shooting 9-for-35 on "Wide Open" 3-point shots, in which the closest defender is over six feet away according to NBA Stats. That 25.7% shooting on "Wide Open" 3s is a significant drop off from the 41.1% they shot on those same shots during the regular season, the second-highest mark in the NBA.

The biggest culprit for those misses has been Fred VanVleet who is shooting just 1-for-7 on those "Wide Open" 3s in this series. While part of that certainly has to do with the Celtics' length which makes those "Wide Open" shots feel a lot more contested when you're 6-foot-1, it's not like VanVleet shrunk since the end of the regular season when he was shooting 45.5% on those same 3-point attempts.

Similarly, Kyle Lowry has struggled with his 3-point stroke so far in the series. He's made just one 3-pointer in the series and missed seven "Wide Open" or "Open" 3-pointers in which the defender is between four and six feet away. In the regular season, he was nailing those shots at a 38.5% and 35.3% clip, respectively.

In Game 2, the Raptors' starting guards combined to shoot 3-for-19 from behind the arc with VanVleet accounting for all three of those makes. And in a three-point loss, those misses will cost you immensely.

"A good share of them that were really good [looks]," Nurse said of his guards' shooting performances in Game 2. "I’m not saying all of them were great. I think Freddy had a couple that people were closing pretty hard on him. Kyle had one real deep one, I know. I do think there were 12 or 13, maybe more, that were probably pretty good."

Then there's the other side of the shooting variance equation.

Prior to the series, I wrote about how Marcus Smart was going to be an X-factor for Boston. He is the Celtics worst 3-point shooter in the starting lineup aside from their center, Daniel Theis, and Toronto has a tendency to force teams to play left-handed by funneling the ball into the hands of their opponents' worst shooters.

In the Celtics series, that meant forcing the ball to Smart, who shot 34.7% on 3-pointers during the regular season, just below league-average, and just 31.4% on catch-and-shoot 3s.

So far in the series, Smart has led the Celtics in 3-point attempts, taking 20 3-point shots, 11 of which have been catch-and-shoot looks, which should be a win for Toronto. The problem for the Raptors, however, is Smart has been red hot, shooting 11-for-20 from 3-point range and 6-for-11 on catch-and-shoot 3s.

As I wrote before the series: The Raptors should be content to let Smart fire away on catch-and-shoot 3s. When they miss, the Raptors will look brilliant. When they sink, Boston should win.

That's been the case so far. 

Now, the Raptors have to make a decision. They can either adjust their game plan to slow down Smart, who almost single-handedly won the Celtics Game 2, or Toronto can hope the pendulum swings the other way and Smart begins missing shots while Lowry and VanVleet return their regular 3-point shooting selves.

Either way, something has to change in Game 3 or the Raptors won't be hanging around much longer.