Digging Into a Zach LaVine Deal for the Raptors Shows Pros and Cons for Toronto
Let’s start with some facts.
Fact 1: The Toronto Raptors currently rank dead last in half-court scoring this season.
Fact 2: Zach LaVine is a career 20-points-per-game scorer and one of the league’s most talented offensive players.
It’s easy to look at those two facts and think a trade between the Raptors and Chicago Bulls, who are reportedly willing to move LaVine, makes some sense. Some reporters would say LaVine would “fit like a glove” in Toronto.
But the truth is, it’s complicated.
LaVine, 29, is set to make $40.1 million this season and has four more seasons remaining, including a player-option, on his five-year, $215.2 million contract. Toronto could, in theory, acquire LaVine without moving any of the team’s core pieces. Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, and Thad Young, for example, would work financially while allowing Toronto to remain under the luxury tax threshold. The Raptors could then throw in as many as two first-round picks in 2028 and 2030 or some combination of first-round picks, including a 2029 first-round pick, and three second-round picks the Raptors own in 2028, 2029, and 2030.
That would undoubtedly make the Raptors better. LaVine’s offensive firepower would perfectly Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl, and Dennis Schroder, none of whom bring the same kind of offensive half-court and three-point shooting ability that LaVine has. The same could be said about LaVine’s lackluster defense which could be covered up by having above-average to elite defenders everywhere else on the court.
It's easy to see that kind of roster as a top-six team in the Eastern Conference and maybe an interesting playoff team with second-round potential.
But assuming Toronto doesn’t win a championship with that group, then what?
The Raptors would have five players under contract for next season, LaVine, Barnes, Poeltl, Schörder, Dick, and McDaniels, accounting for $95 million of the league’s $142 million salary cap. Add in a max contract for Siakam that starts around $43 million and potentially another $40 million for Anunoby, and suddenly the Raptors are sitting awfully close to the projected $172 million luxury tax threshold without a full roster.
Considering the Raptors have only once paid into the luxury tax and that was for a team that went on to win the championship, it seems unlikely Toronto would be interested in diving deep into the tax for a good, but not elite core.
The other option would be to trade Siakam in a one-for-one type of deal with the Bulls that would essentially give the Raptors a player who better fits alongside Barnes moving forward. That too makes some sense for Toronto from a style standpoint, but Chicago appears destined for more of a rebuilding type of trade and that would merely be a lateral move for the Raptors talent-wise.
Maybe something unexpected happens over the next few months that changes Toronto’s fortunes and thrusts the Raptors into a different direction in which acquiring LaVine makes more sense. But for now, Toronto would be better off waiting for a better move down the road.