To Convey or Not to Convey: Raptors Share How They're Viewing Their 1st Round Pick

The Toronto Raptors will leave their lottery odds up to fate regardless of what that means for the top-six protected they owe the San Antonio Spurs

The Toronto Raptors will let fate decide their future.

For now, nobody is tanking. There’s no mandate from the top telling the Raptors to start resting players. Nobody is insisting Toronto go all-out for a top pick in the draft. Whatever happens, happens, the Raptors have said as far as it pertains to the top-six protected pick the organization still owes the San Antonio Spurs from the Jakob Poeltl trade.

That’s probably the right approach considering where Toronto sits 53 games into the season.

In terms of the reverse standings, Charlotte has a 7.5 lead on Toronto for the fourth-best lottery odds. That’s essentially out of the question. Portland sits in fifth, with four more losses than the Raptors. That margin is erasable, but it may take some work on Toronto’s part. Then there’s Memphis, losers of eight straight, who sit a game up on Toronto for the sixth-worst record.

Why does this matter?

Because the difference between each of those spots is huge in terms of ping pong balls on lottery night. As the seventh-worst team, the Raptors would have a 32% chance to keep their pick in the top six. That number would jump to nearly 46% as the sixth worst team and to nearly 64% as the fifth worst team.

But Toronto isn’t paying attention to those odds.

“We’re going to prioritize seeing this group play,” Raptors general manager Bobby Webster said following the trade deadline. “If it ends up that we’re in the top six or out of the top six, especially the way that the new NBA rules are, to try and game that doesn’t make a ton of sense.

“At the end of the day, it’s going to be the lottery balls. So I don’t think there’s a ton of let’s do this or that, but I think the big priority for us is playing that young group together.”

That’s a prudent decision too.

If that pick doesn’t convey this year, Toronto still has to deal with those obligations in 2025 and 2026. It would essentially require three straight tanking seasons or some really, really good luck to avoid giving San Antonio that first-round pick before it turns into a pair of second-rounders. And considering the perceived strength of those future draft classes compared to this 2024 class, it stands to reason Toronto may just be better off getting the pain over with now.

For now, Toronto is still focused on development. There’ll be no tinkering or gamesmanship to fudge the numbers. Instead, the basketball Gods will decide where that pick goes when the ping-pong balls start flying later this spring.