The Raptors Are Dropping Starting Lineup Hints But Which Direction Makes More Sense?

The Toronto Raptors have yet to name an official starting lineup but it appears Dennis Schröder has the edge over Gary Trent Jr. as the preseason opener nears

Darko Rajaković has tried to play coy when it comes to his starting lineup this season.

To be fair, you can’t blame the new Toronto Raptors coach. His predecessor was reluctant to reveal his lineup an hour and a half before tipoff. It’s, therefore, entirely reasonable to think Rajaković might not want to give up too much info nearly two and a half weeks before the regular season tips off.

That said, there have been hints as to what things will look like when Toronto takes the court Sunday in the preseason opener and, more importantly, on Oct. 25 when the Minnesota Timberwolves come to town on opening night.

Here’s what we know: Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, and Jakob Poeltl are locks for four of the five starting spots. That leaves Gary Trent Jr. and Dennis Schröder, two very different players with entirely different strengths and weaknesses, competing for one spot.

Initially, when Schröder signed with Toronto, he made it abundantly clear he was under the impression he was going to be the starting point guard of the team. He’d worked with Rajaković in Oklahoma City and said he was excited to be the “starting point guard” for the team this season.

Schröder, 30, has since walked back those comments, suggesting he’d be happy in whatever role Toronto puts him in this season. That’s generally the same sentiment Trent, 24, conveyed last year when he bounced back and forth between the starting lineup. While both players would prefer to be in the starting lineup, neither is likely to put up a fight if he doesn’t get his way.

With Schröder, Toronto gets a traditional point guard. He’s likely the Raptors’ best ball handler, a veteran of the position, someone who can organize the offense, and a pesky point-of-attack defender who should look comfortable defending virtually every other like-sized point guard in the league.

“Dennis just does a great job of running the team,” Rajaković said Friday following a scrimmage in which Schröder played primarily with the team’s other four starters. “He’s recognizing when the guys need touches. … He’s a fierce competitor on both ends of the floor. He’s a winner and I just think he’s going to bring another level of competitiveness to our team, and I believe he’s going to be a great connector on our team.”

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The problem with starting Schröder is the lack of floor spacing within that starting unit. Schröder is a below-average shooter on low volume, Barnes has yet to develop into an adequate shooter at any level, Siakam’s shooting is probably the best of the trio, but remains inconsistent at best, and Poeltl is not a shooter whatsoever. That means Toronto’s starting lineup would have just one above-average shooter on the court, Anunoby, and in a league that’s so dependent on the three-point shot, that could become quite problematic for the Raptors.

The alternative to starting Schröder is throwing Trent in the lineup to add a little more offensive firepower to that group. Trent is Toronto’s second-best three-point shooter, having converted 36.9% of his threes last season, and he’s easily the team’s most willing pull-up shooter. The problem is Trent doesn’t bring any of the playmaking skills Schröder possesses and Toronto would be forced to make do with Barnes handling the bulk of the point guard duties.

If the goal is development, using Barnes as the team’s primary point guard isn’t such a bad thing. Rajaković has talked about giving Barnes a bigger role in the offense this season and he views the 6-foot-8 forward as a modern ball-handling big who he thinks can run some pick-and-roll and organize the offense. So far, though, Barnes’ playmaking skills have been best suited for transition possessions and his half-court shot-creating ability has left something to be desired.

For what it’s worth, I’d bet Schröder gets the start Sunday. The subtle hints are pointing in that direction and the offense likely runs smoother with a veteran leading the way. But it wouldn’t be that surprising if the situation is fluid and there’s no doubt the starting lineup is going to get jumbled up as injuries pop up throughout the year. And frankly, it’s the closing lineup that matters more and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Toronto goes small when the game is in the balance, removing Poeltl from the court and using both Schröder and Trent in the final minutes.

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